VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that if a general election were held today the results would be as follows.

Labour: majority of 230 seats
Conservative: 232 seats short of a majority

Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%

[Last updated: 24 June 2024]

List
Map

Here is the predicted result in each new constituency:

Constituency	Predicted Winner
Aberafan Maesteg	Labour
Aberdeen North	SNP
Aberdeen South	SNP
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	SNP
Airdrie and Shotts	Labour
Aldershot	Labour
Aldridge-Brownhills	Conservative
Alloa and Grangemouth	SNP
Altrincham and Sale West	Labour
Alyn and Deeside	Labour
Amber Valley	Labour
Angus and Perthshire Glens	SNP
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	SNP
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP
Arundel and South Downs	Conservative
Ashfield	Reform
Ashford	Labour
Ashton-under-Lyne	Labour
Aylesbury	Labour
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	SNP
Banbury	Labour
Bangor Aberconwy	Labour
Barking	Labour
Barnsley North	Labour
Barnsley South	Labour
Barrow and Furness	Labour
Basildon and Billericay	Labour
Basingstoke	Labour
Bassetlaw	Labour
Bath	Liberal Democrat
Bathgate and Linlithgow	Labour
Battersea	Labour
Beaconsfield	Conservative
Beckenham and Penge	Labour
Bedford	Labour
Belfast East	DUP
Belfast North	Sinn Fein
Belfast South and Mid Down	SDLP
Belfast West	Sinn Fein
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Labour
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Conservative
Bethnal Green and Stepney	Labour
Beverley and Holderness	Labour
Bexhill and Battle	Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford	Labour
Bicester and Woodstock	Liberal Democrat
Birkenhead	Labour
Birmingham Edgbaston	Labour
Birmingham Erdington	Labour
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley	Labour
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	Labour
Birmingham Ladywood	Labour
Birmingham Northfield	Labour
Birmingham Perry Barr	Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak	Labour
Birmingham Yardley	Labour
Bishop Auckland	Labour
Blackburn	Labour
Blackley and Middleton South	Labour
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Labour
Blackpool South	Labour
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney	Labour
Blaydon and Consett	Labour
Blyth and Ashington	Labour
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Labour
Bolsover	Labour
Bolton North East	Labour
Bolton South and Walkden	Labour
Bolton West	Labour
Bootle	Labour
Boston and Skegness	Conservative
Bournemouth East	Labour
Bournemouth West	Labour
Bracknell	Labour
Bradford East	Labour
Bradford South	Labour
Bradford West	Labour
Braintree	Conservative
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Conservative
Brent East	Labour
Brent West	Labour
Brentford and Isleworth	Labour
Brentwood and Ongar	Conservative
Bridgend	Labour
Bridgwater	Conservative
Bridlington and The Wolds	Conservative
Brigg and Immingham	Conservative
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven	Labour
Brighton Pavilion	Green
Bristol Central	Green
Bristol East	Labour
Bristol North East	Labour
Bristol North West	Labour
Bristol South	Labour
Broadland and Fakenham	Labour
Bromley and Biggin Hill	Labour
Bromsgrove	Conservative
Broxbourne	Labour
Broxtowe	Labour
Buckingham and Bletchley	Labour
Burnley	Labour
Burton and Uttoxeter	Labour
Bury North	Labour
Bury South	Labour
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	Labour
Caerfyrddin	Plaid Cymru
Caerphilly	Labour
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Liberal Democrat
Calder Valley	Labour
Camborne and Redruth	Labour
Cambridge	Labour
Cannock Chase	Labour
Canterbury	Labour
Cardiff East	Labour
Cardiff North	Labour
Cardiff South and Penarth	Labour
Cardiff West	Labour
Carlisle	Labour
Carshalton and Wallington	Liberal Democrat
Castle Point	Conservative
Central Ayrshire	SNP
Central Devon	Labour
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	Conservative
Ceredigion Preseli	Plaid Cymru
Chatham and Aylesford	Labour
Cheadle	Liberal Democrat
Chelmsford	Liberal Democrat
Chelsea and Fulham	Labour
Cheltenham	Liberal Democrat
Chesham and Amersham	Liberal Democrat
Chester North and Neston	Labour
Chester South and Eddisbury	Conservative
Chesterfield	Labour
Chichester	Liberal Democrat
Chingford and Woodford Green	Labour
Chippenham	Liberal Democrat
Chipping Barnet	Labour
Chorley	Labour
Christchurch	Conservative
Cities of London and Westminster	Labour
City of Durham	Labour
Clacton	Reform
Clapham and Brixton Hill	Labour
Clwyd East	Labour
Clwyd North	Labour
Coatbridge and Bellshill	Labour
Colchester	Labour
Colne Valley	Labour
Congleton	Labour
Corby and East Northamptonshire	Labour
Coventry East	Labour
Coventry North West	Labour
Coventry South	Labour
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Labour
Cramlington and Killingworth	Labour
Crawley	Labour
Crewe and Nantwich	Labour
Croydon East	Labour
Croydon South	Labour
Croydon West	Labour
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Labour
Dagenham and Rainham	Labour
Darlington	Labour
Dartford	Labour
Daventry	Conservative
Derby North	Labour
Derby South	Labour
Derbyshire Dales	Labour
Dewsbury and Batley	Labour
Didcot and Wantage	Liberal Democrat
Doncaster Central	Labour
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	Labour
Doncaster North	Labour
Dorking and Horley	Liberal Democrat
Dover and Deal	Labour
Droitwich and Evesham	Conservative
Dudley	Labour
Dulwich and West Norwood	Labour
Dumfries and Galloway	SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Conservative
Dundee Central	SNP
Dunfermline and Dollar	Labour
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Plaid Cymru
Ealing Central and Acton	Labour
Ealing North	Labour
Ealing Southall	Labour
Earley and Woodley	Labour
Easington	Labour
East Antrim	DUP
East Grinstead and Uckfield	Conservative
East Ham	Labour
East Hampshire	Conservative
East Kilbride and Strathaven	Labour
East Londonderry	DUP
East Renfrewshire	SNP
East Surrey	Conservative
East Thanet	Labour
East Wiltshire	Conservative
East Worthing and Shoreham	Labour
Eastbourne	Liberal Democrat
Eastleigh	Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Labour
Edinburgh North and Leith	Labour
Edinburgh South	Labour
Edinburgh South West	SNP
Edinburgh West	Liberal Democrat
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill	Labour
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough	Labour
Eltham and Chislehurst	Labour
Ely and East Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrat
Enfield North	Labour
Epping Forest	Conservative
Epsom and Ewell	Conservative
Erewash	Labour
Erith and Thamesmead	Labour
Esher and Walton	Liberal Democrat
Exeter	Labour
Exmouth and Exeter East	Conservative
Falkirk	SNP
Fareham and Waterlooville	Conservative
Farnham and Bordon	Liberal Democrat
Faversham and Mid Kent	Labour
Feltham and Heston	Labour
Fermanagh and South Tyrone	Sinn Fein
Filton and Bradley Stoke	Labour
Finchley and Golders Green	Labour
Folkestone and Hythe	Labour
Forest of Dean	Labour
Foyle	SDLP
Frome and East Somerset	Liberal Democrat
Fylde	Conservative
Gainsborough	Conservative
Gateshead Central and Whickham	Labour
Gedling	Labour
Gillingham and Rainham	Labour
Glasgow East	Labour
Glasgow North	Labour
Glasgow North East	Labour
Glasgow South	Labour
Glasgow South West	Labour
Glasgow West	Labour
Glastonbury and Somerton	Liberal Democrat
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Labour
Gloucester	Labour
Godalming and Ash	Liberal Democrat
Goole and Pocklington	Conservative
Gordon and Buchan	Conservative
Gorton and Denton	Labour
Gosport	Conservative
Gower	Labour
Grantham and Bourne	Conservative
Gravesham	Labour
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	Labour
Great Yarmouth	Labour
Greenwich and Woolwich	Labour
Guildford	Liberal Democrat
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Labour
Hackney South and Shoreditch	Labour
Halesowen	Labour
Halifax	Labour
Hamble Valley	Conservative
Hamilton and Clyde Valley	Labour
Hammersmith and Chiswick	Labour
Hampstead and Highgate	Labour
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Labour
Harlow	Labour
Harpenden and Berkhamsted	Liberal Democrat
Harrogate and Knaresborough	Liberal Democrat
Harrow East	Labour
Harrow West	Labour
Hartlepool	Labour
Harwich and North Essex	Labour
Hastings and Rye	Labour
Havant	Conservative
Hayes and Harlington	Labour
Hazel Grove	Liberal Democrat
Hemel Hempstead	Labour
Hendon	Labour
Henley and Thame	Liberal Democrat
Hereford and South Herefordshire	Labour
Herne Bay and Sandwich	Conservative
Hertford and Stortford	Labour
Hertsmere	Conservative
Hexham	Labour
Heywood and Middleton North	Labour
High Peak	Labour
Hinckley and Bosworth	Conservative
Hitchin	Labour
Holborn and St Pancras	Labour
Honiton and Sidmouth	Liberal Democrat
Hornchurch and Upminster	Labour
Hornsey and Friern Barnet	Labour
Horsham	Liberal Democrat
Houghton and Sunderland South	Labour
Hove and Portslade	Labour
Huddersfield	Labour
Huntingdon	Labour
Hyndburn	Labour
Ilford North	Labour
Ilford South	Labour
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Labour
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP
Ipswich	Labour
Isle of Wight East	Labour
Isle of Wight West	Labour
Islington North	Other
Islington South and Finsbury	Labour
Jarrow and Gateshead East	Labour
Keighley and Ilkley	Labour
Kenilworth and Southam	Conservative
Kensington and Bayswater	Labour
Kettering	Labour
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	SNP
Kingston and Surbiton	Liberal Democrat
Kingston upon Hull East	Labour
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham	Labour
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	Labour
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire	Conservative
Knowsley	Labour
Lagan Valley	DUP
Lancaster and Wyre	Labour
Leeds Central and Headingley	Labour
Leeds East	Labour
Leeds North East	Labour
Leeds North West	Labour
Leeds South	Labour
Leeds South West and Morley	Labour
Leeds West and Pudsey	Labour
Leicester East	Labour
Leicester South	Labour
Leicester West	Labour
Leigh and Atherton	Labour
Lewes	Liberal Democrat
Lewisham East	Labour
Lewisham North	Labour
Lewisham West and East Dulwich	Labour
Leyton and Wanstead	Labour
Lichfield	Labour
Lincoln	Labour
Liverpool Garston	Labour
Liverpool Riverside	Labour
Liverpool Walton	Labour
Liverpool Wavertree	Labour
Liverpool West Derby	Labour
Livingston	Labour
Llanelli	Labour
Lothian East	Labour
Loughborough	Labour
Louth and Horncastle	Conservative
Lowestoft	Labour
Luton North	Labour
Luton South and South Bedfordshire	Labour
Macclesfield	Labour
Maidenhead	Liberal Democrat
Maidstone and Malling	Conservative
Makerfield	Labour
Maldon	Conservative
Manchester Central	Labour
Manchester Rusholme	Labour
Manchester Withington	Labour
Mansfield	Labour
Melksham and Devizes	Conservative
Melton and Syston	Labour
Meriden and Solihull East	Conservative
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Labour
Mid and South Pembrokeshire	Labour
Mid Bedfordshire	Labour
Mid Buckinghamshire	Conservative
Mid Cheshire	Labour
Mid Derbyshire	Labour
Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrat
Mid Dunbartonshire	Liberal Democrat
Mid Leicestershire	Labour
Mid Norfolk	Conservative
Mid Sussex	Liberal Democrat
Mid Ulster	Sinn Fein
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East	Labour
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Labour
Midlothian	Labour
Milton Keynes Central	Labour
Milton Keynes North	Labour
Mitcham and Morden	Labour
Monmouthshire	Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	Conservative
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Labour
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	Labour
Neath and Swansea East	Labour
New Forest East	Conservative
New Forest West	Conservative
Newark	Labour
Newbury	Liberal Democrat
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West	Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend	Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne North	Labour
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Labour
Newport East	Labour
Newport West and Islwyn	Labour
Newry and Armagh	Sinn Fein
Newton Abbot	Liberal Democrat
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Labour
Normanton and Hemsworth	Labour
North Antrim	DUP
North Ayrshire and Arran	SNP
North Bedfordshire	Conservative
North Cornwall	Liberal Democrat
North Cotswolds	Conservative
North Devon	Liberal Democrat
North Dorset	Conservative
North Down	Alliance
North Durham	Labour
North East Cambridgeshire	Conservative
North East Derbyshire	Labour
North East Fife	Liberal Democrat
North East Hampshire	Conservative
North East Hertfordshire	Labour
North East Somerset and Hanham	Labour
North Herefordshire	Conservative
North Norfolk	Liberal Democrat
North Northumberland	Labour
North Shropshire	Liberal Democrat
North Somerset	Labour
North Warwickshire and Bedworth	Labour
North West Cambridgeshire	Labour
North West Essex	Conservative
North West Hampshire	Conservative
North West Leicestershire	Labour
North West Norfolk	Conservative
Northampton North	Labour
Northampton South	Labour
Norwich North	Labour
Norwich South	Labour
Nottingham East	Labour
Nottingham North and Kimberley	Labour
Nottingham South	Labour
Nuneaton	Labour
Old Bexley and Sidcup	Conservative
Oldham East and Saddleworth	Labour
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	Labour
Orkney and Shetland	Liberal Democrat
Orpington	Conservative
Ossett and Denby Dale	Labour
Oxford East	Labour
Oxford West and Abingdon	Liberal Democrat
Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Labour
Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Labour
Peckham	Labour
Pendle and Clitheroe	Labour
Penistone and Stocksbridge	Labour
Penrith and Solway	Labour
Perth and Kinross-shire	SNP
Peterborough	Labour
Plymouth Moor View	Labour
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Labour
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Labour
Pontypridd	Labour
Poole	Labour
Poplar and Limehouse	Labour
Portsmouth North	Labour
Portsmouth South	Labour
Preston	Labour
Putney	Labour
Queen's Park and Maida Vale	Labour
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	Labour
Rayleigh and Wickford	Conservative
Reading Central	Labour
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Labour
Redcar	Labour
Redditch	Labour
Reigate	Conservative
Rhondda and Ogmore	Labour
Ribble Valley	Labour
Richmond and Northallerton	Conservative
Richmond Park	Liberal Democrat
Rochdale	Labour
Rochester and Strood	Labour
Romford	Labour
Romsey and Southampton North	Liberal Democrat
Rossendale and Darwen	Labour
Rother Valley	Labour
Rotherham	Labour
Rugby	Labour
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Conservative
Runcorn and Helsby	Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge	Conservative
Rushcliffe	Labour
Rutherglen	Labour
Rutland and Stamford	Conservative
Salford	Labour
Salisbury	Conservative
Scarborough and Whitby	Labour
Scunthorpe	Labour
Sefton Central	Labour
Selby	Labour
Sevenoaks	Conservative
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Labour
Sheffield Central	Labour
Sheffield Hallam	Labour
Sheffield Heeley	Labour
Sheffield South East	Labour
Sherwood Forest	Labour
Shipley	Labour
Shrewsbury	Labour
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Labour
Skipton and Ripon	Conservative
Sleaford and North Hykeham	Conservative
Slough	Labour
Smethwick	Labour
Solihull West and Shirley	Conservative
South Antrim	UUP
South Basildon and East Thurrock	Labour
South Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrat
South Cotswolds	Liberal Democrat
South Derbyshire	Labour
South Devon	Liberal Democrat
South Dorset	Labour
South Down	Sinn Fein
South East Cornwall	Conservative
South Holland and The Deepings	Conservative
South Leicestershire	Conservative
South Norfolk	Labour
South Northamptonshire	Conservative
South Ribble	Labour
South Shields	Labour
South Shropshire	Conservative
South Suffolk	Conservative
South West Devon	Conservative
South West Hertfordshire	Conservative
South West Norfolk	Labour
South West Wiltshire	Labour
Southampton Itchen	Labour
Southampton Test	Labour
Southend East and Rochford	Labour
Southend West and Leigh	Labour
Southgate and Wood Green	Labour
Southport	Labour
Spelthorne	Labour
Spen Valley	Labour
St Albans	Liberal Democrat
St Austell and Newquay	Labour
St Helens North	Labour
St Helens South and Whiston	Labour
St Ives	Liberal Democrat
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrat
Stafford	Labour
Staffordshire Moorlands	Labour
Stalybridge and Hyde	Labour
Stevenage	Labour
Stirling and Strathallan	SNP
Stockport	Labour
Stockton North	Labour
Stockton West	Labour
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Labour
Stoke-on-Trent North	Labour
Stoke-on-Trent South	Labour
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	Conservative
Stourbridge	Labour
Strangford	DUP
Stratford and Bow	Labour
Stratford-on-Avon	Liberal Democrat
Streatham and Croydon North	Labour
Stretford and Urmston	Labour
Stroud	Labour
Suffolk Coastal	Labour
Sunderland Central	Labour
Surrey Heath	Liberal Democrat
Sussex Weald	Conservative
Sutton and Cheam	Liberal Democrat
Sutton Coldfield	Conservative
Swansea West	Labour
Swindon North	Labour
Swindon South	Labour
Tamworth	Labour
Tatton	Labour
Taunton and Wellington	Liberal Democrat
Telford	Labour
Tewkesbury	Conservative
The Wrekin	Labour
Thirsk and Malton	Conservative
Thornbury and Yate	Liberal Democrat
Thurrock	Labour
Tipton and Wednesbury	Labour
Tiverton and Minehead	Liberal Democrat
Tonbridge	Conservative
Tooting	Labour
Torbay	Liberal Democrat
Torfaen	Labour
Torridge and Tavistock	Conservative
Tottenham	Labour
Truro and Falmouth	Labour
Tunbridge Wells	Liberal Democrat
Twickenham	Liberal Democrat
Tynemouth	Labour
Upper Bann	DUP
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Labour
Vale of Glamorgan	Labour
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green	Labour
Wakefield and Rothwell	Labour
Wallasey	Labour
Walsall and Bloxwich	Labour
Walthamstow	Labour
Warrington North	Labour
Warrington South	Labour
Warwick and Leamington	Labour
Washington and Gateshead South	Labour
Watford	Labour
Waveney Valley	Conservative
Weald of Kent	Conservative
Wellingborough and Rushden	Labour
Wells and Mendip Hills	Liberal Democrat
Welwyn Hatfield	Labour
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	SNP
West Bromwich	Labour
West Dorset	Liberal Democrat
West Dunbartonshire	Labour
West Ham and Beckton	Labour
West Lancashire	Labour
West Suffolk	Labour
West Tyrone	Sinn Fein
West Worcestershire	Conservative
Westmorland and Lonsdale	Liberal Democrat
Weston-super-Mare	Labour
Wetherby and Easingwold	Conservative
Whitehaven and Workington	Labour
Widnes and Halewood	Labour
Wigan	Labour
Wimbledon	Liberal Democrat
Winchester	Liberal Democrat
Windsor	Conservative
Wirral West	Labour
Witham	Conservative
Witney	Conservative
Woking	Liberal Democrat
Wokingham	Liberal Democrat
Wolverhampton North East	Labour
Wolverhampton South East	Labour
Wolverhampton West	Labour
Worcester	Labour
Worsley and Eccles	Labour
Worthing West	Labour
Wrexham	Labour
Wycombe	Labour
Wyre Forest	Labour
Wythenshawe and Sale East	Labour
Yeovil	Liberal Democrat
Ynys Mon	Plaid Cymru
York Central	Labour
York Outer	Labour

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