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Election forecast: Who will form the next government? (Sept 2026)

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It’s all go this month, with party conferences coming up, a crucial by-election – which could see Green Party leader Zack Polanski enter Parliament – just weeks away, and the Budget on the horizon…
General election forecast generated in September 2026

A first look at the next government…

We have updated our forecast of the make-up of Parliament based on the latest polling data. We’re sure you’ve seen recent predictions suggesting that Reform would be the largest party, with some estimates even giving them a majority – a disaster for climate.

The good news is that if a general election were held today, Labour and not Reform would likely be the largest party – although they would fall far short of a majority. This is a great opportunity to put pressure on PM Andy Burnham to make climate action a priority – especially given his recent re-commitment to cutting emissions. Our research shows that the outcome could depend on swings of a few percentage points, so our climate votes will really count! View the forecast in full.

Help us push Labour further on climate

It’s great that Andy Burnham says he stands by cutting emissions to zero by 2050. But currently, he isn’t on track for a majority at the next election. Together, we can show the Prime Minister that he can win votes through real climate action. A regular subscription of just £5 a month will help us build numbers and show Labour that voters want to see emissions slashed.
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Conference season is here!

This weekend sees Labour’s first conference with Burnham at the helm, followed by the Tories’ annual gathering the following weekend.

Conference season is a big opportunity to push Andy Burnham to put his money where his mouth is on climate, and to demand that the Tories back away from their reckless climate-denial.

Use our template email to ask your MP to put climate front and centre at the conference this year. In three easy steps, you can write to your MP now! Act now – it only takes five minutes.

  1. Click here to find your MP’s contact details
  2. Open our template and copy and paste it into an email – feel free to edit the text in whatever way you see fit
  3. Adapt the text and send it to your MP!

By-election could see Green leader in Parliament

A parliamentary by-election has been called in Holborn and St Pancras following Keir Starmer’s resignation as an MP. Green Party leader Zack Polanski – who is not currently an MP – has been confirmed as the Green candidate, and he is likely to be the main challenger to Labour. It is likely to be a tight race, but a Green win will see Burnham’s Labour under more pressure to go further on climate. The election is set for Thursday 8 October.

With very best wishes

Ben, Garry, Jamie, Peter and Will

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