Estimated electorate: 67,574
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Belfast East will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
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If we can recruit 2,047 members in Belfast East, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of DUP or Alliance has the best climate policy. That's 3.0% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 18,148 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of DUP, Alliance or UUP has the best climate policy. That's 26.9% of the electorate in this seat.