Estimated electorate: 70,358
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Belfast North will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
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If we can recruit 1,829 members in Belfast North, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Sinn Fein or DUP has the best climate policy. That's 2.6% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 17,019 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Sinn Fein, DUP or Alliance has the best climate policy. That's 24.2% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 21,785 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 31.0% of the electorate.