Estimated electorate: 79,703
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Belfast South and Mid Down will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 12,102 members in Belfast South and Mid Down, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of SDLP or DUP has the best climate policy. That's 15.2% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 17,838 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of SDLP, DUP or Alliance has the best climate policy. That's 22.4% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 25,704 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 32.2% of the electorate.