Estimated electorate: 72,389
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 504 members in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Conservative or Liberal Democrat has the best climate policy. That's 0.7% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 603 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Conservative, Liberal Democrat or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 0.8% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 12,955 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 17.9% of the electorate.