Estimated electorate: 74,750
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Cardiff West will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Cardiff West constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 20,995 members in Cardiff West, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 28.1% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 24,492 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Conservative or Plaid Cymru has the best climate policy. That's 32.8% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 25,933 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 34.7% of the electorate.