VoteClimate: Central Ayrshire Constituency 2024

Central Ayrshire Constituency 2024

Estimated electorate: 75,328

What Might Happen at the Next General Election?

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Central Ayrshire will be as follows:

Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.

Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Central Ayrshire constituency at the next election:

There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.

Data Source:

What Can VoteClimate Achieve in Central Ayrshire?

Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.

If we can recruit 6,091 members in Central Ayrshire, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of SNP or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 8.1% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 8,332 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of SNP, Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 11.1% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 18,237 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 24.2% of the electorate.

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