Estimated electorate: 75,724
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 1,056 members in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Sinn Fein or UUP has the best climate policy. That's 1.4% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 18,760 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Sinn Fein, UUP or SDLP has the best climate policy. That's 24.8% of the electorate in this seat.