Estimated electorate: 73,540
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Gosport will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
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If we can recruit 5,820 members in Gosport, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Conservative or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 7.9% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 16,112 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat has the best climate policy. That's 21.9% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 17,808 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 24.2% of the electorate.