Hertsmere Constituency 2024

Estimated electorate: 72,776

What Might Happen at the Next General Election?

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Hertsmere will be as follows:

Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.

Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Hertsmere constituency at the next election:

• Oliver Dowden MP (Conservative) - 13 Climate-related Tweets
• Emma Matanle (Liberal Democrat) - 9 Climate-related Tweets
• Darren Selkus (Reform/Brexit) - 100 Climate-related Tweets
• Josh Tapper (Labour)

There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.

Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk

What Can VoteClimate Achieve in Hertsmere?

Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.

If we can recruit 2,787 members in Hertsmere, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Conservative or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 3.8% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 14,797 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat has the best climate policy. That's 20.3% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 17,468 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 24.0% of the electorate.