Estimated electorate: 75,652
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Lagan Valley will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Lagan Valley constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 7,038 members in Lagan Valley, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of DUP or Alliance has the best climate policy. That's 9.3% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 11,100 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of DUP, Alliance or UUP has the best climate policy. That's 14.7% of the electorate in this seat.