Llanelli Constituency 2024

Estimated electorate: 67,501

What Might Happen at the Next General Election?

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Llanelli will be as follows:

Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.

Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Llanelli constituency at the next election:

• Gareth Beer (Reform/Brexit)
• Rhodri Davies (Plaid Cymru) - 4 Climate-related Tweets
• Charlie Evans (Conservative) - 2 Climate-related Tweets
• Stan Robinson (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.

Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk

What Can VoteClimate Achieve in Llanelli?

Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.

If we can recruit 12,175 members in Llanelli, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Plaid Cymru has the best climate policy. That's 18.0% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 13,499 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Plaid Cymru or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 20.0% of the electorate in this seat.