Estimated electorate: 73,244
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 19,129 members in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Reform/Brexit has the best climate policy. That's 26.1% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 19,936 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Reform/Brexit or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 27.2% of the electorate in this seat.