Estimated electorate: 71,798
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Newcastle-under-Lyme will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Newcastle-under-Lyme constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 6,868 members in Newcastle-under-Lyme, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 9.6% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 18,481 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Conservative or Reform/Brexit has the best climate policy. That's 25.7% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 19,385 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 27.0% of the electorate.