Estimated electorate: 74,413
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Newry and Armagh will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
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If we can recruit 8,506 members in Newry and Armagh, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Sinn Fein or DUP has the best climate policy. That's 11.4% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 9,868 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Sinn Fein, DUP or SDLP has the best climate policy. That's 13.3% of the electorate in this seat.