Estimated electorate: 76,492
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in North Ayrshire and Arran will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new North Ayrshire and Arran constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 7,098 members in North Ayrshire and Arran, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of SNP or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 9.3% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 10,527 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of SNP, Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 13.8% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 18,068 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 23.6% of the electorate.