Estimated electorate: 71,832
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in North Down will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new North Down constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 2,589 members in North Down, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Alliance or DUP has the best climate policy. That's 3.6% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 14,282 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Alliance, DUP or UUP has the best climate policy. That's 19.9% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 19,392 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 27.0% of the electorate.