Estimated electorate: 64,871
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Runcorn and Helsby will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Runcorn and Helsby constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 16,890 members in Runcorn and Helsby, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 26.0% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 22,832 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Conservative or Reform/Brexit has the best climate policy. That's 35.2% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 23,838 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 36.7% of the electorate.