Estimated electorate: 68,992
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in St Helens South and Whiston will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new St Helens South and Whiston constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 21,850 members in St Helens South and Whiston, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Reform/Brexit has the best climate policy. That's 31.7% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 22,734 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Reform/Brexit or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 33.0% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 24,269 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 35.2% of the electorate.