Stoke-on-Trent South Constituency 2024

Estimated electorate: 61,861

What Might Happen at the Next General Election?

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Stoke-on-Trent South will be as follows:

Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.

Prospective Parliamentary Candidates

The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Stoke-on-Trent South constituency at the next election:

• Michael Bailey (Reform/Brexit)
• Jack Brereton MP (Conservative)
• Allison Gardner (Labour) - 2 Climate-related Tweets
• Alec Sandiford (Liberal Democrat) - 8 Climate-related Tweets

There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.

Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk

What Can VoteClimate Achieve in Stoke-on-Trent South?

Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.

If we can recruit 1,704 members in Stoke-on-Trent South, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 2.8% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 15,422 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat has the best climate policy. That's 24.9% of the electorate in this seat.

We need 15,444 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 25.0% of the electorate.