Estimated electorate: 77,185
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Thornbury and Yate will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Thornbury and Yate constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 2,725 members in Thornbury and Yate, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Conservative or Liberal Democrat has the best climate policy. That's 3.5% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 7,569 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Conservative, Liberal Democrat or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 9.8% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 19,043 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 24.7% of the electorate.