Estimated electorate: 72,188
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Upper Bann will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
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If we can recruit 6,637 members in Upper Bann, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of DUP or Sinn Fein has the best climate policy. That's 9.2% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 11,983 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of DUP, Sinn Fein or Alliance has the best climate policy. That's 16.6% of the electorate in this seat.