Estimated electorate: 70,754
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Westmorland and Lonsdale will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 4,681 members in Westmorland and Lonsdale, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Liberal Democrat or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 6.6% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 10,087 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Liberal Democrat, Conservative or Labour has the best climate policy. That's 14.3% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 18,082 members in this constituency to be able to elect a Green MP. That's 25.6% of the electorate.