12 Jun 24
Analysis by Dr Jason Palmer (Cambridge Energy, CAR and UCL)
The Conservatives’ Manifesto was written jointly with the Northern Ireland Unionists. They are emphasising lower immigration, lower taxes and protected pensions - while also promising not to punish people with ‘hidden green taxes’. The manifesto stresses policies for a positive future.
The Conservatives say they will cut the cost of net zero by taking a more pragmatic approach, while also accelerating the rollout of renewables. They also say they will back motorists, by stopping road pricing and reversing expansion of the London Mayor's ULEZ zone.
The Conservatives claim they remain committed to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050. They also say they will legislate to ensure annual licensing of new oil and gas production from the North Sea. (These opposing commitments are hard to reconcile.) However, they say they will raise over £26m by retaining the windfall tax on high profits by oil and gas companies until 2028-29 – unless oil and gas prices return to normal earlier.
The Conservatives say they will build new gas power stations alongside new renewables – stating “when forced to choose between clean energy and keeping citizens safe and warm,” they will “keep the lights on”. They also say they will build two carbon capture and storage clusters, and approve two new fleets of Small Modular (Nuclear) Reactors.
They claim they will invest £1.1bn into the Green Industries Growth Accelerator – without providing any detail about this, or explaining how it might reduce carbon emissions. They also say they will rule out more costly action on Net Zero that will increase costs to families – including levies on flights. However, the Conservatives are silent on where money will come from for their two costed actions on climate change (and others). Promises of continued reductions to National Insurance, down to 6% by 2027, will make it very difficult to secure funding for Net Zero.
How much would each party's manifesto commitments reduce UK CO2e emissions?
Party Manifestos - Climate Comparison
| Key pledges in the next parliament | Impact on UK emissions | Impact on per capita emissions |
|---|---|---|
| Treble offshore wind capacity (this is very ambitious, and would lead to intermittency issues) | Medium | Medium |
| Build two carbon capture & storage clusters | Low | Low |
| Invest £1.1bn into Green Industries Accelerator | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Approve two fleets of Small Modular Reactors | Low | Low |
| Implement a new carbon-pricing mechanism to stop iron, steel, aluminium, ceramics & cement being displaced to countries that are not acting on climate change | Low | Low |
| Invest £6bn in energy efficiency improvements for homes, which they say is enough for 1 million homes |
Zero - this is current policy |
Zero - this is current policy |
| Fund a voucher scheme in England for energy efficiency and solar panels | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
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