VoteClimate: Climate Assessment of Labour's Manifesto

Climate Assessment of Labour's Manifesto

14 Jun 24

Analysis by Dr Jason Palmer (Cambridge Energy, CAR and UCL)

The Labour Manifesto says they want to end ‘the Conservative chaos’ and turn around the decline in communities, soaring mortgages, people waiting in A&E and sewage in our rivers. They say this is the result of government that puts its own interests above the issues that affect families.

Labour outline six ‘first steps for change’, where Number 4 is setting up ‘Great British Energy’: a publicly-owned clean power company the party says will cut bills for good and boost energy security, paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. This is part of a wider programme of work they call the Green Prosperity Plan, which will include:

  • investing in insulation and renewables in homes
  • ‘National Wealth Fund’, which will invest in gigafactories to make batteries for electric vehicles and carbon capture and green hydrogen – as well as traditional industries like steel and ports, and
  • the British Jobs Bonus, which they say will incentivise firms to offer good jobs.

Overall, they claim their Green Prosperity Plan will create 650,000 jobs by 2030.

The Labour Manifesto includes breakdowns of revenue and costs for their policies from 2028-29, with separate funding tables for the Green Prosperity Plan and changes to spending by Government departments. They say their fiscal rules will apply to every decision, and the current budget must move into balance. (By 2028-29 the figures show public services will be £2.5bn in credit – lower Government borrowing than now.)

Labour’s figures indicate about a quarter of the Green Prosperity Plan will be paid for from the windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, with the rest coming from borrowing ‘within fiscal rules’.

Labour Manifesto

How much would each party's manifesto commitments reduce UK CO2e emissions?
Party Manifestos - Climate Comparison

Key pledges in the next parliament Impact on UK emissions Impact on per capita emissions
Double onshore wind and quadruple offshore wind by 2030 (this is very ambitious, and would lead to intermittency issues) High Medium
Triple solar power by 2030 (also very ambitious) Medium Low
Invest in carbon capture & storage, hydrogen & marine energy (not specified how much, or how) Unquantifiable Unquantifiable
Establish Great British Energy, capitalised at £8.3bn, to partner with others and deploy local power generation – largely onshore wind, solar and hydro Low Low
Invest an extra £6.6bn in the next parliament to upgrade 5 million homes and cut bills Medium Low (£1300 per home is very limited)
Change the planning regime and planning policy to make it ‘faster and cheaper’ to build infrastructure and major projects Unquantifiable Unquantifiable
Restore the 2030 phase-out date for new cars with internal combustion engines Low Low
Ensure private-rented homes meet minimum energy efficiency standards Unquantifiable: depends what standards Unquantifiable: depends what standards
Bring railways back into public ownership and overhaul them Unquantifiable Unquantifiable
Reform bus routes and remove the ban on municipal ownership of bus services Unquantifiable Unquantifiable
Reverse the decision to prevent the Bank of England considering climate change in decisions Unquantifiable Unquantifiable
Mandate UK financial institutions and FTSE 100 companies to implement credible transition plans aligned with the 1.5C Paris Agreement Low Low

NB: he timing of many Labour policies is unclear in the Labour Manifesto, and only a minority are commitments in the first parliament. These are marked in the table.



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