14 Jun 24
Analysis by Dr Jason Palmer (Cambridge Energy, CAR and UCL)
The Labour Manifesto says they want to end ‘the Conservative chaos’ and turn around the decline in communities, soaring mortgages, people waiting in A&E and sewage in our rivers. They say this is the result of government that puts its own interests above the issues that affect families.
Labour outline six ‘first steps for change’, where Number 4 is setting up ‘Great British Energy’: a publicly-owned clean power company the party says will cut bills for good and boost energy security, paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. This is part of a wider programme of work they call the Green Prosperity Plan, which will include:
Overall, they claim their Green Prosperity Plan will create 650,000 jobs by 2030.
The Labour Manifesto includes breakdowns of revenue and costs for their policies from 2028-29, with separate funding tables for the Green Prosperity Plan and changes to spending by Government departments. They say their fiscal rules will apply to every decision, and the current budget must move into balance. (By 2028-29 the figures show public services will be £2.5bn in credit – lower Government borrowing than now.)
Labour’s figures indicate about a quarter of the Green Prosperity Plan will be paid for from the windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, with the rest coming from borrowing ‘within fiscal rules’.
How much would each party's manifesto commitments reduce UK CO2e emissions?
Party Manifestos - Climate Comparison
| Key pledges in the next parliament | Impact on UK emissions | Impact on per capita emissions |
|---|---|---|
| Double onshore wind and quadruple offshore wind by 2030 (this is very ambitious, and would lead to intermittency issues) | High | Medium |
| Triple solar power by 2030 (also very ambitious) | Medium | Low |
| Invest in carbon capture & storage, hydrogen & marine energy (not specified how much, or how) | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Establish Great British Energy, capitalised at £8.3bn, to partner with others and deploy local power generation – largely onshore wind, solar and hydro | Low | Low |
| Invest an extra £6.6bn in the next parliament to upgrade 5 million homes and cut bills | Medium | Low (£1300 per home is very limited) |
| Change the planning regime and planning policy to make it ‘faster and cheaper’ to build infrastructure and major projects | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Restore the 2030 phase-out date for new cars with internal combustion engines | Low | Low |
| Ensure private-rented homes meet minimum energy efficiency standards | Unquantifiable: depends what standards | Unquantifiable: depends what standards |
| Bring railways back into public ownership and overhaul them | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Reform bus routes and remove the ban on municipal ownership of bus services | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Reverse the decision to prevent the Bank of England considering climate change in decisions | Unquantifiable | Unquantifiable |
| Mandate UK financial institutions and FTSE 100 companies to implement credible transition plans aligned with the 1.5C Paris Agreement | Low | Low |
NB: he timing of many Labour policies is unclear in the Labour Manifesto, and only a minority are commitments in the first parliament. These are marked in the table.
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