15 Jun 24
Analysis by Dr Jason Palmer (Cambridge Energy, CAR and UCL)
The Reform Party is unusual for lots of reasons, and unlike other parties it has published a ‘Contract with You’ rather than a manifesto. It says this is deliberately issued as a working draft, to be finalised ‘later in the year’, and they invite comments on the Contract. They are leading on ‘slashing’ Government waste, rebuilding the economy, tackling immigration and the NHS – with the tagline ‘Let’s Save Britain’. (You almost hear ‘Rule Britannia’ playing in the background.)
The first page of Reform’s Contract says: ‘Net Zero is making us poorer and colder, damaging British industry and forcing motorists off the road.’ Whether or not you accept this, the style and chutzpah are at once refreshing and alarming. The Contract goes on to say the Government has made mistakes in ‘bet[ting] our future on unreliable wind and solar power’, in worrying about CO2 emissions at all, and in failing to accept that the climate will always change, whatever we do.
In the first 100 days of the new government, Reform want to ‘scrap’ Net Zero and related subsidies, and renewable energy subsidies. They want to ‘use the treasure under our feet’ and fast-track North Sea gas and oil, including shale gas licences for 2 years, saying this will mean cheap, secure energy.
Reform have costed their policies, and they claim their proposals will create an extra 1-1.5% of growth a year, meaning £10bn a year in additional tax revenue.
Coming soon: how much will each party's manifesto commitments reduce UK CO2e emissions...
| Key pledges in the next parliament | Impact on UK emissions | Impact on per capita emissions |
|---|---|---|
| Fast-track nuclear with new small modular reactors | Low | Low |
| Incentivise UK lithium mining for batteries | Zero | Zero |
| Scrap Net Zero | RISE in emissions | RISE in emissions |
| Scrap renewable energy subsidies | RISE in emissions | RISE in emissions |
| Fast-track new licences for oil and gas drilling, including shale gas | RISE in emissions | RISE in emissions |
| Scrap the remainder of HS2 | RISE in emissions | RISE in emissions |
| Scrap climate-related farming subsidies | RISE in emissions | RISE in emissions |
NB: The changes proposed in Reform’s Contract are for its first 100 days in government.
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