13:30 Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North) (Lab)

The Arctic is one of the last pristine wildernesses left on earth, but it is changing rapidly due to climate change. Last year, the Arctic sea ice melted to an unprecedented all-time low. Satellite measurements of its extent and volume showed that between 2003 and 2011, the ice volume decreased by 50%—much more than previously estimated. At that rate of decline, we will completely lose summer sea ice in the Arctic within a decade. Much scientific work is still ongoing into the matter, and we heard during our inquiry from a range of scientists. I hope that our report can serve as a textbook for many people, including in schools and universities, who are trying to understand what is happening in the Arctic.

Why does it matter for us in the UK? As we reported, the effects of climate change are already being felt in the Arctic and are likely to continue to be felt more profoundly there than perhaps anywhere else on earth. Climate change in the Arctic may affect our weather, making colder winters in the UK and northern Europe possible in future. It is worth pointing out that, although climate change and environmental issues are not at the top of everyone’s agenda, the effects of severe weather change on food production and supply and the implications for health and safety, as well as access to food, make it clear that changing weather patterns and what is happening in the Arctic affect all of us in one way or another, so we should be concerned.

We believe that that all adds up to a strong UK interest in the Arctic that, sadly, the UK Government are not embracing to the extent that we think they should; that was one of the recommendations of our report, which was timely. When we started to examine the evidence last summer, Shell was due to start drilling in the Arctic and Cairn Energy had been drilling off the coast of Greenland for a couple of years. As more ice melts year on year, we can expect many other oil companies that have invested heavily in licences to seek to start operations. That is a desperate and perverse irony: climate change is opening up the region to oil and gas exploration, which is being driven by burning oil and gas. That inconsistency needs to be examined and acted on.

The world does not need more oil and gas. There are already more proven oil and gas reserves than we can burn, while still avoiding more than a 2ºC global temperature rise. I was interested by the comments made by Professor Nicholas Stern at the Davos conference last month. He basically said that if he had realised earlier what he knows now, he would have focused more on even greater climate change targets. The International Energy Agency says that no more than one third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed before 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2ºC goal. We sought clarity from the Government on how looking for new oil and gas in the Arctic can be reconciled with commitments to limit temperature rises to 2ºC. The Government responded that the world will still need some oil and gas in the low-carbon transition, that Arctic oil will fill that gap when proven reserves are used up and that we will still keep within the 2º rise.

We heard a few weeks ago from Greenpeace and others that the Government are cherry-picking statistics from the International Energy Agency’s 2011 world energy outlook to justify their position, not least because the 2012 edition assumes a minimal Arctic oil contribution to production in 2035. Rather than the IEA’s 2011 data, what does the Minister make of its 2012 data? It is important that we have up-to-date data on which to base our evidence and policy. What does he make of the 2012 data showing that already discovered oil and gas fields will meet future demand, and what does that mean for the Government’s position on oil and gas exploration in the Arctic? He must spell that out. Whatever the arguments, it is clear that the Government are not prepared to set a global example on climate change while profits are still to be had.

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13:43 Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)

However, jurisdiction in the Arctic is, of course, a different kettle of fish, because we are not an Arctic state. We are not on the Arctic Council, and, therefore, we are at a disadvantage when making policy statements about the Arctic. I can find nothing to disagree with in the report when it comes to the overall interest in protecting the Arctic and the danger that various measures might exacerbate the already serious threat of climate change.

In summary, protecting the Antarctic is important. The problems are enormous, the threats are great and climate change must be tackled. In many ways, the report points to how that should be done. The difference between the Arctic and the Antarctic must be recognised, and we must respond in a slightly different way. I have set out my thinking along those lines, which the Minister may want to consider. I hope we can all agree that this is a working-together operation, and if British leadership can be exerted through the European Union and our other international relationships, that would be good.

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13:49 Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith) (Lab/Co-op)

As my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent North pointed out, UK companies are increasingly involved in a big way—and potentially even more—in drilling for petroleum and gas in Arctic waters. That raises many issues about how they are controlled and managed, as they are UK-based companies. My hon. Friend also referred to migratory biodiversity. That includes birds, marine life and fish stocks. That is important to the UK’s commercial interests. There is some evidence that, as waters warm, fish stocks may move further north. There are also some suggestions that, if the thermohaline circulation were to change even in a minimal way, they might actually move south. That is an indication of how the scientific evidence is inconclusive on the effects of climate change on the Arctic. The point is that it is an area in which we have direct and immediate interests, both commercially and in our wider concerns about climate change.

These issues are, of course, linked to climate change and our report rightly underlines the importance of tackling climate change. Even if the most pessimistic forecasts for the Arctic were not to come true, there would still be major consequences, as our report points out. If the pessimistic forecasts are correct, the importance of taking action to mitigate the effects of climate change is underlined even more.

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13:57 Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park) (Con)

I do not want to repeat the points that have already been made in the excellent opening remarks, other than to echo the importance of keeping in mind climate change. My hon. Friend the Member for Stroud (Neil Carmichael) made the point well, and we have just heard about the importance of preserving fish stocks. There are many reasons that ought to be obvious, so I will not go into them.

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14:00 Kerry McCarthy (Labour)

Many of us have seen—I always have to get in a plug for the BBC’s natural history unit, which is based in Bristol—on the “Frozen Planet” series some of the wonders of the Arctic. Some years ago, I was fortunate enough to visit Svalbard as a guest of the Norwegian Government, which was incredibly eye-opening not only in understanding the geopolitics of the region and the way in which the Arctic states work together but in seeing first hand some of the effects of climate change.

Climate change is having more of an impact on the Arctic than anywhere else; the report highlights that the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the planet and fast approaching several tipping points, which would have worldwide ramifications. As has already been mentioned, it is deeply ironic that the climate change that is damaging the Arctic is also opening up the area for the north-west shipping routes and greater exploitation of the Arctic’s oil and gas resources, fisheries and minerals, because global warming is causing the ice cap to melt. The consequence of allowing that opening up is to accelerate the climate change that caused the ice cap to melt in the first place. This is a difficult issue to resolve, but how do we balance the need to protect the Arctic environment with the desire of the Arctic states, the oil and gas companies and others to exploit the region’s natural resources—the fossil fuels, other minerals and fisheries—and to open up new shipping routes?

In his response, I hope that the Minister will also outline what he sees as the UK’s role in the Arctic and what contribution we should make. We are not a member of the Arctic Council, but we have observer status—one of only six states to have permanent observer status—and we are a close neighbour, as my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh North and Leith (Mark Lazarowicz) mentioned. We have a long history and strong environmental, political, economic and scientific interests in the region, so what does the Minister see as our role in future? It is worth noting as a general point that climate change poses the biggest threat to the Arctic environment, yet we are the ones causing it. We have a responsibility to deal with the issues, because the consequences will be felt globally. Climate change is caused by global factors, it is not a matter for the Arctic states alone to resolve.

I want to say a little more about the impact of climate change. The Environmental Audit Committee heard evidence that the current situation met the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s definition of “dangerous change”, and an expert witness said:

The report notes evidence that climate change is

The report details some key tipping points, which are points at which rapid changes take place out of all proportion to the climate change driving them. When those points are reached, the climate change effects on the Arctic might be massively accelerated. The tipping points include the Arctic becoming ice-free in the summer within a decade or even sooner. The retreat of the ice cap, in both extent and density, is accelerating. The Arctic Methane Emergency Group reported to the Committee that

A particularly alarming potential tipping point identified by the Committee—I admit that I was not that familiar with it previously, and I found this section of the report quite shocking—is the thawing of permafrost, which would cause the release of methane, a greenhouse gas that does not get the attention that carbon dioxide emissions do, but has a warming effect 72 times more than CO 2 has over 20 years. The report acknowledges the lack of consensus on how close we are to those tipping points, but the direction of travel is not in doubt. As was noted by the Committee, geo-engineering for the Arctic does not currently offer a credible long-term solution for tackling climate change. A more realistic and lower risk intervention would be to tackle black carbon, and I hope that the Minister will say something about that in his response.

Will the Minister respond to those projections in the latest “World Energy Outlook” report? Will he also set out in more detail how the Government’s position is consistent with their decarbonisation targets and what the chances are of keeping global temperature rises below 2°C?

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14:13 The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Mr Hugo Swire)

The Arctic region has long been of strategic interest to the United Kingdom. The speed of climate change in the Arctic and the associated impacts and opportunities mean that developments in the region will increasingly affect key UK policy interests. As the hon. Member for Bristol East (Kerry McCarthy) said, those interests include energy security, shipping, fishing, trade, use of resources, and the environment, and many were touched on during the debate. The Government are committed to protecting and promoting them.

The hon. Member for Bristol East asked about our vision for the Arctic, and what leadership we will provide. It is wrong to say that the UK should not, and does not show leadership on issues affecting the Arctic. No one can be in any doubt that climate change is the greatest threat facing the Arctic, and the consequences of climate change are driving the changes we are seeing there. The UK is a global leader on pressing for reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and understanding their impact. We are, therefore, leading the fight on tackling the underlying cause of the threats facing the Arctic.

Climate change is not the only issue. The UK can and does play a leading role in a wide range of international policies that could affect the Arctic. For example, we are pressing for global agreement on an implementing mechanism for designated marine protected areas in the high seas, and for reduced emissions from global shipping. The Government’s response to the Committee’s report outlines those in more detail.

The hon. Member for Stoke-on-Trent North (Joan Walley), who chairs the Select Committee, was publicly lauded by my hon. Friend the Member for Richmond Park (Zac Goldsmith) and clearly does a good job. She raised some important points, and I will address them in turn. The first point she wanted me to respond to was the International Energy Agency’s figures. Under the new policy scenario in its 2012 “World Energy Outlook” report, the world will consume 99.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2035, compared with 87.4 million barrels a day in 2011. Over the same period, production from existing sources of crude oil will have declined from around 65 million barrels a day to 26 million barrels a day, so new sources of oil will be needed to make up the difference. While seeking to limit emissions, we have to accept that major economic developments in parts of the world will result in greater energy use in the medium term. For example, while oil consumption is expected to fall significantly in the OECD, it will rise elsewhere, notably in India and China. What we can realistically seek to achieve is to limit the growth of emissions through international agreements, notably the United Nations framework convention on climate change, and by encouraging the increasing use of low-carbon technologies.

The hon. Member for Bristol East asked a technical question about the threat of methane released from permafrost. Continued warming of Arctic land masses will lead to a large-scale melting of permafrost, which may well release large quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Although the magnitude of any release is uncertain, it has potential to significantly accelerate global warming. While the amount of methane currently being released is small compared with other sources, that contained below permafrost and land ice is thought to be huge. The Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme is looking at methane release in the Arctic as part of its Task Force on Short-Lived Climate Forcers.

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14:31 Joan Walley

I agree that it is not for us to say what should or should not be done, but we need to find collaborative ways of working—ways of working together, in partnership —and we all need to show leadership on this most complex issue to ensure that the challenges that we face on climate change and environmental protection are met. Keeping this pristine part of the world in that condition for the benefit of future generations is so important. I would therefore like to think that, when the Government come to produce the Arctic policy framework—whether a strategy or not—we will have contributed to that in some way.

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