19:19 Kenny MacAskill (East Lothian) (Alba)

We are seeking to transition from a carbon economy, but it must be a just transition and at a pace allowing our economy and society to adapt. The cumulative impact of closure might not be the 4% loss of GDP suggested by Petroineos, but even the 0.25% or 0.3% loss of GDP suggested by the Fraser of Allander Institute would be damaging enough. Where is the outrage and anger? Where is the ministerial statement here at Westminster or the call to action at Holyrood? Instead, there has been silence or sanguinity, hope that it just might not happen or, even more disgracefully, quiet resignation to its fate.

What needs done? Ownership has changed over the years, and profitability has been affected by under-investment. No blame can be attached to the current or past workforce. Responsibility may also rest with previous owners other than PetroChina and INEOS, currently in charge. Steps can and must be taken to address the current profitability and buy time so that a transition can take place both at the site and across our economy. Moreover, there are also actions that will increase capacity and thus profitability and productivity. That means linking Scotland’s oil refinery with Scotland’s oil production. Finally, there is the just transition and the need to prepare for the new world. That can and must be done at this site.

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19:33 Graham Stuart (Conservative)

I also want to acknowledge that the announcement of the conversion will be concerning to the refinery’s employees and their families. We remain in close contact with the Scottish Government to mitigate impacts on jobs and the local economy. As part of our commitment to levelling up, the UK Government are already supporting the Falkirk Council area through the UK shared prosperity fund. Its allocation of more than £6.1 million will deliver a range of interventions that support local businesses, communities, people and skills. We are also supporting Falkirk Council with £40 million of UK Government investment through the Falkirk city and regional growth deal, which is supporting a range of locally driven projects that will create high-value jobs to help boost the local economy. We are working with the Scottish Government to deliver the Forth Green freeport, which covers the area. The freeport aims to drive a transition to net zero by 2045 by attracting up to £6 billion-worth of investment and creating approximately 50,000 jobs, generating an estimated £4.2 billion in gross value added in the first five years.

As the hon. Gentleman will be aware, through contracts for difference and many other policy announcements from the UK Government, we are driving enormous growth in jobs in the green sectors. We expect them to grow to 480,000 jobs by the end of this decade. As I say, as a global leader in decarbonisation, Scotland, and that area in particular, has an enormous amount to offer and there are huge opportunities coming forward. We will publish next year a green jobs plan, working with industry to identify the pressure points and the opportunities going forward.

I assure the House that the Government will continue to back North sea production by granting licences for new projects, such as the Rosebank field development. Developments such as Rosebank will continue to strengthen our energy security, support the transition to net zero, and create new jobs and opportunities. Rosebank, for example, is expected to be significantly less emissions-intensive than previous developments, which will help the UK to reach its ambitious targets for net zero. Its operator, Equinor, estimates that it will produce oil at around 12 kg of carbon dioxide per barrel, compared with an offshore production average of more than 20 kg of carbon dioxide per barrel. So it is already a much more efficient production. If electrification were to go ahead, it would be significantly lower again. In addition, the Rosebank project will provide investment of £6.3 billion in UK-based businesses, support around 400 UK-based jobs, and add around £24 billion to the UK economy across the project’s lifetime, according to its operator. Yet that licence finds itself opposed by the Labour party, even if it supports jobs and helps us to green the basin.

The UK Government will continue to work closely with the Scottish Government on this issue to ensure that when the time comes, there is a just transition of Grangemouth into an import terminal—if that is the decision made—and to ensure that fuel supplies for Scotland and the UK are maintained. The Government will also continue to support economic development in the local area to ensure that there is a just transition for the workforce.

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