Estimated electorate: 74,162
Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that the result in Caerfyrddin will be as follows:
Based on predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
For all new seats and a full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
The following candidates are expected to stand in the new Caerfyrddin constituency at the next election:
There may be further candidates standing for whom data is not yet available.
Data Source: https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk
Coming soon: once we have enough signed-up members, report the number here.
If we can recruit 4,028 members in Caerfyrddin, we can potentially swing the seat at the next election to whichever of Labour or Plaid Cymru has the best climate policy. That's 5.4% of the electorate in this seat.
We need 6,448 members in this constituency to have a chance of swinging the seat to whichever of Labour, Plaid Cymru or Conservative has the best climate policy. That's 8.7% of the electorate in this seat.