VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Three-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Three-Way Marginal Seats

These seats are where the winning party is forecast to gain the narrowest lead over the third-place party, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Winner Second Third Votes Required
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 15,295 Liberal Democrat 14,788 Labour 14,696 599 0.83%
Woking Conservative 16,018 Liberal Democrat 15,996 Labour 14,881 1,137 1.59%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,305 Liberal Democrat 16,212 Labour 14,697 1,608 2.34%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative 18,141 Labour 16,560 Liberal Democrat 15,747 2,394 3.08%
Didcot and Wantage Conservative 17,701 Liberal Democrat 17,593 Labour 15,048 2,653 3.64%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,973 Liberal Democrat 15,610 Labour 14,449 2,524 3.68%
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative 17,806 Labour 17,360 Liberal Democrat 14,565 3,241 4.20%
South Devon Conservative 19,067 Labour 16,673 Liberal Democrat 15,740 3,327 4.56%
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,513 Conservative 15,560 Labour 13,071 3,442 4.80%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 18,912 Liberal Democrat 15,553 Labour 14,929 3,983 5.33%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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