VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Three-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Three-Way Marginal Seats

These seats are where the winning party is forecast to gain the narrowest lead over the third-place party, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Reform: 27% | Labour: 18.8% | Conservative: 18.3% | Green: 14.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.2%

[Last updated: June 2026]

Constituency Winner Second Third Votes Required
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Reform 7,083 Other 6,892 Green 6,751 332 0.43%
Rushcliffe Labour 14,954 Reform 14,643 Conservative 14,581 373 0.47%
Hamble Valley Reform 14,492 Conservative 14,390 Liberal Democrat 14,042 450 0.57%
Birkenhead Labour 12,984 Green 12,708 Reform 12,175 809 1.04%
Bristol North East Green 11,583 Reform 11,116 Labour 10,846 737 1.05%
Norwich South Labour 12,342 Green 12,341 Reform 11,391 951 1.25%
North Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 13,284 Conservative 12,745 Reform 12,365 919 1.26%
Bradford West Reform 7,122 Green 6,164 Labour 6,034 1,088 1.40%
Exeter Labour 10,438 Reform 10,391 Green 9,447 991 1.46%
South West Hertfordshire Reform 12,538 Conservative 12,163 Liberal Democrat 11,451 1,087 1.52%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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