What might happen at the next general election if 2.5% of voters switched from Labour to the Liberal Democrats?
Main forecast: VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election
Labour: majority of 82 seats
Conservative: 142 seats short of a majority
Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 41.5% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 13.8% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%
[Last updated: September 2023]
If people switch votes as per above, the seats would transfer between parties as follows:
| Number of Seats | Switch from Party | To Party |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Labour | Conservative |
| 9 | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
| 5 | Labour | SNP |
| 1 | Labour | Plaid Cymru |
| 1 | Labour | Liberal Democrat |
| 1 | SNP | Liberal Democrat |
See also: Electoral Analysis