What If 4.25% Of The Electorate Switch From Labour To A Party With Better Climate Policy?

If 4.25% of the electorate switch from Labour to a party with better climate policy, particularly one that could win in their seat, the next general election result would look something like this:

Methodology:

• Start from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election where the vote shares (GB) are Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%.
• Subtract 4.25% of the electorate from Labour's votes in each seat.
• Add 4.25% of the electorate to the party with the best climate policy that can win or, if none can win, to the party with the best climate policy.
• For this example, we've estimated that the parties rank on climate policy best to worst as follows:
  Green, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, SNP
• NB: yes, it's highly simplistic to imagine the switch will be only away from Labour, but useful to estimate the size of the swing required.

[Last updated: 17 February 2025]

See also: Electoral Analysis