What might happen at the next general election if 5% of voters switched from Labour to the Liberal Democrats?
Main forecast: VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election
Labour: majority of 36 seats
Conservative: 131 seats short of a majority
Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 39% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 16.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%
[Last updated: September 2023]
If people switch votes as per above, the seats would transfer between parties as follows:
| Number of Seats | Switch from Party | To Party |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Labour | Conservative |
| 18 | Conservative | Liberal Democrat |
| 8 | Labour | SNP |
| 2 | SNP | Liberal Democrat |
| 1 | Labour | Plaid Cymru |
| 1 | Labour | Liberal Democrat |
See also: Electoral Analysis