3 November 2023
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
FAO all XR members:
A proposed strategy for Election Rebellion.
XR has an historic opportunity to get the 3rd demand adopted as government policy by flipping the first-past-the-post system.
For too long a lazy two-party consensus has governed the UK. We are plunging headlong into a climate emergency. Business-as-usual is failing us.
The time has come for every climate activist and group to stand up and disrupt using all available means.
It's time to disrupt via the ballot box.
The Tories' climate policies represent an omnicidal lurch backwards. Labour's ambitions stretch no further than rubber-stamping the damage being wreaked by the Conservatives.
VoteClimate's recent analysis "What Will It Take For Labour To Step Up On Climate?" demonstrates that:
It's a big ask but it could be possible if all groups step up and make it happen.
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
The XR Election Rebellion group is proposing the following strategy.
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
The headline intention to "Disrupt the next election" will create free, widespread publicity for XR, and grab the attention of existing members.
The demand for a Citizens Assembly is so anodyne and blatantly democratic, that it seems hard for anyone or any party to object to it.
By entering the democratic process, XR has a significant opportunity to engage and recruit new members, particularly those reluctant to join physical protests.
If a party gains power and reneges on the commitments it has made to the Election Rebels, XR will have an increased membership and renewed mandate to advocate disruptive protest.
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
The work required is relatively little: XR already has an active website, popular social media channels and contact details for a large membership.
The following are additionally required:
A monumental amount of work will be required to promote this idea to and via XR local groups and the public at large. But that work will be shared between thousands of activists.
What is not required:
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
The general public doesn't understand citizens assemblies
Here is a rare opportunity for activists to engage the public and explain XR's fundamental 3rd demand.
Only a relatively small proportion of the population need to be convinced: it's likely that 7.5% already understand CAs.
Election Rebellion will distract from XR's other actions
Many grass-roots XR members are impatient for an election strategy and have started training with Greenpeace. Election Rebellion will stem that flow and reengage existing members.
Election Rebellion is a recruiting tool attractive to both the moderate and radical flanks.
Election Rebellion creates enhanced relevance for XR after the election, when a CA is convened or if a party backslides on its commitment.
XR is an NVDA organisation
XR has a once-in-5-year opportunity to get the 3rd demand adopted as government policy.
The call to "disrupt the election" chimes strongly with NVDA.
Election Rebellion boosts future NVDA.
XR is explicitly non-party political
Given that XR has just 3 headline demands, it is strategically valuable to ask members to vote for parties that promise to implement the demands.
It should be made clear that that is the sole reason for XR's recommendation and that XR does not endorse any other aspects of party manifestos.
What about other groups already doing this? eg Greenpeace Project Climate Vote
Only by all groups pushing climate-voting to the max will we be able to achieve any of our goals.
If enough members can be recruited, it's likely that other groups' work will contribute to political parties committing to XR's electoral demands, and vice versa.
The different groups are likely to end up making different voting recommendations
The exact recommendation is less critical and will not be decided until manifestos are finalised a few weeks before the election.
The critical part is to recruit a large number of members and use that to convince the party decision-makers that they will lose votes and seats unless they commit to action on climate.
Analysis in "What Will It Take For Labour To Step Up On Climate?" shows that swings away from Labour to Green or Lib Dem are equally threatening to Labour.
Differing demands and voting recommendations protect the different groups if the Electoral Commission receives a complaint alleging "joint-working".
We risk letting the Tories back into power
As evidenced in "What Will It Take For Labour To Step Up On Climate?" a 7.5% swing away from Labour leaves the Tories 100 seats short of a majority.
If Election Rebellion recruits successfully and Labour fail to step up, more Conservative MPs will be elected.
The current election arithmetic means that there is no way to avoid this while still being able to threaten Labour's majority.
This outcome will be avoided if Labour commits to a strong CA.
WARNING: Our idea for Election Rebellion is not endorsed by Extinction Rebellion
The sooner Election Rebellion is launched, the more members can be recruited before the next election and the stronger XR's position will be to demand a powerful CA be included in party manifestos.
Ben Horton
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