29 October 2023
Open letter to Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, Friends of the Earth, Dale Vince and all other groups and individuals concerned about climate and ecology.
This analysis quantifies what is required at the ballot box to force Labour to commit to tackle the climate emergency.
The headline conclusions are as follows:
3.6 million voters need to threaten to switch away from Labour
This is neither impossible nor unprecedented
Whether it's to Green or Lib Dem, the switch is similarly effective
We have a huge and historic opportunity to force a race to the top on climate policy
At the next general election, if voters behave as predicted in current opinion polls, Labour are heading for a landslide majority of around 140 seats:
Labour: majority of 138 seats
Conservative: 154 seats short of a majority
Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
Source: VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election
There is no pressure on and no incentive for Labour to improve its climate policies.
A premise of this analysis is that the Green Party and Liberal Democrats have better climate policies than Labour, and the Conservatives worse. Therefore if seats can be switched from Labour to the former two parties, while avoiding the return of a Conservative government, the chances of action on climate increase.
Yes: the conclusion of VoteClimate's analysis is that we the people and the activists hold the power to force Labour to commit to action on the climate emergency.
The solution is to persuade a relatively small segment of the population to commit to vote for parties with better climate policies than Labour, currently the Greens and Lib Dems. Armed with those commitments, activist groups can unite to lobby Labour before they write their manifesto and demonstrate that they will not gain a Commons majority, unless their policies on climate are significantly improved.
If 7.5% of the electorate currently intending to vote Labour can be persuaded to commit to vote Lib Dem, Labour will not win a majority:
Labour: 2 seats short of a majority
Conservative: 127 seats short of a majority
Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 36.5% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 18.8% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
Source: General Election Scenario: 7.5% Swing Labour To Lib Dems
As few as 3.6 million people could act together to swing the next election.
Compared to the main election forecast [top of page], this scenario sees Labour losing seats to the Lib Dems (most), Conservatives and SNP (least); very few seats swing directly from Labour to Lib Dem.
Equally, if 8% of the electorate currently intending to vote Labour commit to vote Green, Labour will fall short of a majority:
Labour: 2 seats short of a majority
Conservative: 99 seats short of a majority
Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 36% | Conservative: 27% | Green: 14.8% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
Source: General Election Scenario: 8% Swing Labour To Greens
Compared to the main election forecast [top of page], extra votes for the Green Party don't lead to extra seats for them; the dominant effect is a swing of seats from Labour to Conservative; the Conservatives remain far adrift from a majority.
VoteClimate initially estimated that one million voters could swing the next election. There are two main reasons why so many more are needed:
The required vote shares are not unprecedented. A 7.5% swing to the Lib Dems requires them to win a 19% vote share: in the 2010 general election they polled 23%. An 8% swing to the Greens requires them to win 15% of the vote: at the 1999 European elections the UK Green Party polled 14.5%.
In autumn 2022 the ONS found that 28% of UK adults were very worried about climate change, a further 46% were worried. Source: ONS (Fig1).
If we can enlist the combined UK memberships of Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Extinction Rebellion, WWF and other groups, we have a starting point. If we can enlist the disenfranchised (see below) we will be a good way there. If all groups and activists push the idea of "voting climate" at the next election, we should have a decent chance.
Many young people have lost all hope that our democratic process will rescue their future and have been effectively disenfranchised by VoterID. Dale Vince and others are actively trying to re-engage them.
If we can recruit millions of disenfranchised voters, we are a huge step forward towards forcing the next government to act on climate. But only if the new voters withhold their vote from Labour until their policies are proportionate to the emergency we face.
Any tactical voting that lets the Conservatives slip back into government would be disastrous for climate. The scenarios above leave the Conservatives 100 seats short of a majority. Obviously, that situation should be re-examined closer to the election.
An unfortunate consequence of the election arithmetic is that switching away from Labour will lead to some voters ending up with a Conservative MP instead of a Labour MP. There is no way to avoid this while applying pressure to Labour. We must hope that Labour sees sense and steps up to its responsibilities on climate, and these outcomes can be averted.
NB: a swing to the Lib Dems leads to significantly fewer Tory MPs than a swing to the Greens. In seats where the Lib Dems could defeat the Conservatives, voters should be strongly recommended to vote Lib Dem. In other seats the effect will be similar whether they switch to Lib Dem or Green.
Current polling shows that climate has slipped down the list of voters' election priorities. This is likely a consequence of the Tories recasting the cost-of-living crisis, which they have helped create, as an anti-green rallying-cry.
All climate activists need to stand firm and make absolutely clear that:
A climate minority really can turn the first-past-the-post system on its head and start a race to the top between parties on climate policy.
If we can force Labour to offer genuine climate policies, we then have the opportunity to take this to the Lib Dems and incentivise them to improve their offering. And then take this back to Labour, creating a virtuous circle.
Ben Horton
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