VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election (Sep 2023)

VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election (Sep 2023)

(Please note: there is a newer version of this page at VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election)

Based on the updated constituency boundaries and current opinion polls, we project that if a general election were held today the results would be as follows.

Labour: majority of 138 seats
Conservative: 154 seats short of a majority

Predicted vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Here is the predicted result in each new constituency:

Constituency Predicted Winner
Aberafan Maesteg Labour
Aberdeen North SNP
Aberdeen South SNP
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP
Airdrie and Shotts Labour
Aldershot Conservative
Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative
Alloa and Grangemouth SNP
Altrincham and Sale West Labour
Alyn and Deeside Labour
Amber Valley Conservative
Angus and Perthshire Glens SNP
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber SNP
Arundel and South Downs Conservative
Ashfield Labour
Ashford Conservative
Ashton-under-Lyne Labour
Aylesbury Labour
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP
Banbury Labour
Bangor Aberconwy Labour
Barking Labour
Barnsley North Labour
Barnsley South Labour
Barrow and Furness Labour
Basildon and Billericay Conservative
Basingstoke Labour
Bassetlaw Labour
Bath Liberal Democrat
Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP
Battersea Labour
Beaconsfield Conservative
Beckenham and Penge Labour
Bedford Labour
Belfast East DUP
Belfast North Sinn Fein
Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP
Belfast West Sinn Fein
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk SNP
Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour
Beverley and Holderness Conservative
Bexhill and Battle Conservative
Bexleyheath and Crayford Labour
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative
Birkenhead Labour
Birmingham Edgbaston Labour
Birmingham Erdington Labour
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Labour
Birmingham Ladywood Labour
Birmingham Northfield Labour
Birmingham Perry Barr Labour
Birmingham Selly Oak Labour
Birmingham Yardley Labour
Bishop Auckland Labour
Blackburn Labour
Blackley and Middleton South Labour
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Labour
Blackpool South Labour
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour
Blaydon and Consett Labour
Blyth and Ashington Labour
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Conservative
Bolsover Labour
Bolton North East Labour
Bolton South and Walkden Labour
Bolton West Labour
Bootle Labour
Boston and Skegness Conservative
Bournemouth East Labour
Bournemouth West Labour
Bracknell Conservative
Bradford East Labour
Bradford South Labour
Bradford West Labour
Braintree Conservative
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative
Brent East Labour
Brent West Labour
Brentford and Isleworth Labour
Brentwood and Ongar Conservative
Bridgend Labour
Bridgwater Conservative
Bridlington and The Wolds Conservative
Brigg and Immingham Conservative
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour
Brighton Pavilion Green
Bristol Central Labour
Bristol East Labour
Bristol North East Labour
Bristol North West Labour
Bristol South Labour
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative
Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour
Bromsgrove Conservative
Broxbourne Conservative
Broxtowe Labour
Buckingham and Bletchley Labour
Burnley Labour
Burton and Uttoxeter Labour
Bury North Labour
Bury South Labour
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Conservative
Caerfyrddin Labour
Caerphilly Labour
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross SNP
Calder Valley Labour
Camborne and Redruth Labour
Cambridge Labour
Cannock Chase Conservative
Canterbury Labour
Cardiff East Labour
Cardiff North Labour
Cardiff South and Penarth Labour
Cardiff West Labour
Carlisle Labour
Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat
Castle Point Conservative
Central Ayrshire SNP
Central Devon Labour
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative
Ceredigion Preseli Labour
Chatham and Aylesford Conservative
Cheadle Liberal Democrat
Chelmsford Conservative
Chelsea and Fulham Labour
Cheltenham Liberal Democrat
Chesham and Amersham Conservative
Chester North and Neston Labour
Chester South and Eddisbury Labour
Chesterfield Labour
Chichester Conservative
Chingford and Woodford Green Labour
Chippenham Conservative
Chipping Barnet Labour
Chorley Other
Christchurch Conservative
Cities of London and Westminster Labour
City of Durham Labour
Clacton Conservative
Clapham and Brixton Hill Labour
Clwyd East Labour
Clwyd North Labour
Coatbridge and Bellshill Labour
Colchester Labour
Colne Valley Labour
Congleton Labour
Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour
Coventry East Labour
Coventry North West Labour
Coventry South Labour
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Labour
Cramlington and Killingworth Labour
Crawley Labour
Crewe and Nantwich Labour
Croydon East Labour
Croydon South Labour
Croydon West Labour
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP
Dagenham and Rainham Labour
Darlington Labour
Dartford Labour
Daventry Conservative
Derby North Labour
Derby South Labour
Derbyshire Dales Conservative
Dewsbury and Batley Labour
Didcot and Wantage Conservative
Doncaster Central Labour
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Labour
Doncaster North Labour
Dorking and Horley Conservative
Dover and Deal Labour
Droitwich and Evesham Conservative
Dudley Labour
Dulwich and West Norwood Labour
Dumfries and Galloway SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale SNP
Dundee Central SNP
Dunfermline and Dollar SNP
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru
Ealing Central and Acton Labour
Ealing North Labour
Ealing Southall Labour
Earley and Woodley Labour
Easington Labour
East Antrim DUP
East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative
East Ham Labour
East Hampshire Conservative
East Kilbride and Strathaven SNP
East Londonderry DUP
East Renfrewshire SNP
East Surrey Conservative
East Thanet Labour
East Wiltshire Conservative
East Worthing and Shoreham Labour
Eastbourne Liberal Democrat
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour
Edinburgh North and Leith SNP
Edinburgh South Labour
Edinburgh South West SNP
Edinburgh West SNP
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill Labour
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour
Eltham and Chislehurst Labour
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative
Enfield North Labour
Epping Forest Conservative
Epsom and Ewell Conservative
Erewash Labour
Erith and Thamesmead Labour
Esher and Walton Liberal Democrat
Exeter Labour
Exmouth and Exeter East Other
Falkirk SNP
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative
Farnham and Bordon Conservative
Faversham and Mid Kent Conservative
Feltham and Heston Labour
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein
Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour
Finchley and Golders Green Labour
Folkestone and Hythe Conservative
Forest of Dean Labour
Foyle SDLP
Frome and East Somerset Conservative
Fylde Labour
Gainsborough Conservative
Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour
Gedling Labour
Gillingham and Rainham Labour
Glasgow East Labour
Glasgow North Labour
Glasgow North East Labour
Glasgow South Labour
Glasgow South West Labour
Glasgow West Labour
Glastonbury and Somerton Conservative
Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP
Gloucester Labour
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat
Goole and Pocklington Conservative
Gordon and Buchan SNP
Gorton and Denton Labour
Gosport Conservative
Gower Labour
Grantham and Bourne Conservative
Gravesham Labour
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Labour
Great Yarmouth Conservative
Greenwich and Woolwich Labour
Guildford Liberal Democrat
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour
Hackney South and Shoreditch Labour
Halesowen Labour
Halifax Labour
Hamble Valley Conservative
Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour
Hammersmith and Chiswick Labour
Hampstead and Highgate Labour
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Labour
Harlow Labour
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat
Harrow East Labour
Harrow West Labour
Hartlepool Labour
Harwich and North Essex Conservative
Hastings and Rye Labour
Havant Conservative
Hayes and Harlington Labour
Hazel Grove Liberal Democrat
Hemel Hempstead Labour
Hendon Labour
Henley and Thame Conservative
Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative
Herne Bay and Sandwich Labour
Hertford and Stortford Labour
Hertsmere Conservative
Hexham Labour
Heywood and Middleton North Labour
High Peak Labour
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative
Hitchin Conservative
Holborn and St Pancras Labour
Honiton and Sidmouth Conservative
Hornchurch and Upminster Conservative
Hornsey and Friern Barnet Labour
Horsham Conservative
Houghton and Sunderland South Labour
Hove and Portslade Labour
Huddersfield Labour
Huntingdon Conservative
Hyndburn Labour
Ilford North Labour
Ilford South Labour
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP
Ipswich Labour
Isle of Wight East Labour
Isle of Wight West Labour
Islington North Labour
Islington South and Finsbury Labour
Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour
Keighley and Ilkley Labour
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative
Kensington and Bayswater Labour
Kettering Labour
Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP
Kingston and Surbiton Liberal Democrat
Kingston upon Hull East Labour
Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Conservative
Knowsley Labour
Lagan Valley DUP
Lancaster and Wyre Labour
Leeds Central and Headingley Labour
Leeds East Labour
Leeds North East Labour
Leeds North West Labour
Leeds South Labour
Leeds South West and Morley Labour
Leeds West and Pudsey Labour
Leicester East Labour
Leicester South Labour
Leicester West Labour
Leigh and Atherton Labour
Lewes Liberal Democrat
Lewisham East Labour
Lewisham North Labour
Lewisham West and East Dulwich Labour
Leyton and Wanstead Labour
Lichfield Conservative
Lincoln Labour
Liverpool Garston Labour
Liverpool Riverside Labour
Liverpool Walton Labour
Liverpool Wavertree Labour
Liverpool West Derby Labour
Livingston SNP
Llanelli Labour
Lothian East Labour
Loughborough Labour
Louth and Horncastle Conservative
Lowestoft Labour
Luton North Labour
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour
Macclesfield Labour
Maidenhead Conservative
Maidstone and Malling Conservative
Makerfield Labour
Maldon Conservative
Manchester Central Labour
Manchester Rusholme Labour
Manchester Withington Labour
Mansfield Labour
Melksham and Devizes Conservative
Melton and Syston Conservative
Meriden and Solihull East Conservative
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Labour
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Labour
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative
Mid Cheshire Labour
Mid Derbyshire Labour
Mid Dorset and North Poole Conservative
Mid Dunbartonshire SNP
Mid Leicestershire Conservative
Mid Norfolk Conservative
Mid Sussex Conservative
Mid Ulster Sinn Fein
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Labour
Midlothian Labour
Milton Keynes Central Labour
Milton Keynes North Labour
Mitcham and Morden Labour
Monmouthshire Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale Labour
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Labour
Neath and Swansea East Labour
New Forest East Conservative
New Forest West Conservative
Newark Conservative
Newbury Conservative
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour
Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour
Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour
Newport East Labour
Newport West and Islwyn Labour
Newry and Armagh Sinn Fein
Newton Abbot Conservative
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Labour
Normanton and Hemsworth Labour
North Antrim DUP
North Ayrshire and Arran SNP
North Bedfordshire Conservative
North Cornwall Conservative
North Cotswolds Conservative
North Devon Conservative
North Dorset Conservative
North Down Alliance
North Durham Labour
North East Cambridgeshire Conservative
North East Derbyshire Labour
North East Fife SNP
North East Hampshire Conservative
North East Hertfordshire Labour
North East Somerset and Hanham Labour
North Herefordshire Conservative
North Norfolk Conservative
North Northumberland Labour
North Shropshire Conservative
North Somerset Labour
North Warwickshire and Bedworth Conservative
North West Cambridgeshire Conservative
North West Essex Conservative
North West Hampshire Conservative
North West Leicestershire Conservative
North West Norfolk Conservative
Northampton North Labour
Northampton South Labour
Norwich North Labour
Norwich South Labour
Nottingham East Labour
Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour
Nottingham South Labour
Nuneaton Labour
Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative
Oldham East and Saddleworth Labour
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Labour
Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrat
Orpington Conservative
Ossett and Denby Dale Labour
Oxford East Labour
Oxford West and Abingdon Liberal Democrat
Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP
Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP
Peckham Labour
Pendle and Clitheroe Labour
Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour
Penrith and Solway Labour
Perth and Kinross-shire SNP
Peterborough Labour
Plymouth Moor View Labour
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Labour
Pontypridd Labour
Poole Conservative
Poplar and Limehouse Labour
Portsmouth North Labour
Portsmouth South Labour
Preston Labour
Putney Labour
Queen's Park and Maida Vale Labour
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour
Rayleigh and Wickford Conservative
Reading Central Labour
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Labour
Redcar Labour
Redditch Conservative
Reigate Conservative
Rhondda and Ogmore Labour
Ribble Valley Labour
Richmond and Northallerton Conservative
Richmond Park Liberal Democrat
Rochdale Labour
Rochester and Strood Labour
Romford Conservative
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative
Rossendale and Darwen Labour
Rother Valley Labour
Rotherham Labour
Rugby Labour
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Labour
Runcorn and Helsby Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative
Rushcliffe Labour
Rutherglen Labour
Rutland and Stamford Conservative
Salford Labour
Salisbury Conservative
Scarborough and Whitby Labour
Scunthorpe Labour
Sefton Central Labour
Selby Labour
Sevenoaks Conservative
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Labour
Sheffield Central Labour
Sheffield Hallam Labour
Sheffield Heeley Labour
Sheffield South East Labour
Sherwood Forest Labour
Shipley Labour
Shrewsbury Labour
Sittingbourne and Sheppey Conservative
Skipton and Ripon Conservative
Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative
Slough Labour
Smethwick Labour
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative
South Antrim DUP
South Basildon and East Thurrock Conservative
South Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat
South Cotswolds Conservative
South Derbyshire Conservative
South Devon Conservative
South Dorset Conservative
South Down Sinn Fein
South East Cornwall Conservative
South Holland and The Deepings Conservative
South Leicestershire Conservative
South Norfolk Conservative
South Northamptonshire Conservative
South Ribble Labour
South Shields Labour
South Shropshire Conservative
South Suffolk Conservative
South West Devon Conservative
South West Hertfordshire Conservative
South West Norfolk Conservative
South West Wiltshire Conservative
Southampton Itchen Labour
Southampton Test Labour
Southend East and Rochford Labour
Southend West and Leigh Labour
Southgate and Wood Green Labour
Southport Labour
Spelthorne Conservative
Spen Valley Labour
St Albans Liberal Democrat
St Austell and Newquay Labour
St Helens North Labour
St Helens South and Whiston Labour
St Ives Liberal Democrat
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative
Stafford Labour
Staffordshire Moorlands Conservative
Stalybridge and Hyde Labour
Stevenage Labour
Stirling and Strathallan SNP
Stockport Labour
Stockton North Labour
Stockton West Labour
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour
Stoke-on-Trent North Labour
Stoke-on-Trent South Labour
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Conservative
Stourbridge Labour
Strangford DUP
Stratford and Bow Labour
Stratford-on-Avon Conservative
Streatham and Croydon North Labour
Stretford and Urmston Labour
Stroud Labour
Suffolk Coastal Conservative
Sunderland Central Labour
Surrey Heath Conservative
Sussex Weald Conservative
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat
Sutton Coldfield Conservative
Swansea West Labour
Swindon North Labour
Swindon South Labour
Tamworth Conservative
Tatton Labour
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat
Telford Labour
Tewkesbury Conservative
The Wrekin Conservative
Thirsk and Malton Conservative
Thornbury and Yate Conservative
Thurrock Labour
Tipton and Wednesbury Labour
Tiverton and Minehead Conservative
Tonbridge Conservative
Tooting Labour
Torbay Conservative
Torfaen Labour
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative
Tottenham Labour
Truro and Falmouth Labour
Tunbridge Wells Conservative
Twickenham Liberal Democrat
Tynemouth Labour
Upper Bann DUP
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Labour
Vale of Glamorgan Labour
Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Labour
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour
Wallasey Labour
Walsall and Bloxwich Labour
Walthamstow Labour
Warrington North Labour
Warrington South Labour
Warwick and Leamington Labour
Washington and Gateshead South Labour
Watford Labour
Waveney Valley Conservative
Weald of Kent Conservative
Wellingborough and Rushden Labour
Wells and Mendip Hills Conservative
Welwyn Hatfield Labour
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine SNP
West Bromwich Labour
West Dorset Conservative
West Dunbartonshire Labour
West Ham and Beckton Labour
West Lancashire Labour
West Suffolk Conservative
West Tyrone Sinn Fein
West Worcestershire Conservative
Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat
Weston-super-Mare Labour
Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative
Whitehaven and Workington Labour
Widnes and Halewood Labour
Wigan Labour
Wimbledon Liberal Democrat
Winchester Liberal Democrat
Windsor Conservative
Wirral West Labour
Witham Conservative
Witney Conservative
Woking Conservative
Wokingham Conservative
Wolverhampton North East Labour
Wolverhampton South East Labour
Wolverhampton West Labour
Worcester Labour
Worsley and Eccles Labour
Worthing West Labour
Wrexham Labour
Wycombe Labour
Wyre Forest Conservative
Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour
Yeovil Conservative
Ynys Mon Labour
York Central Labour
York Outer Labour

See also: Electoral Analysis

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