19:40 Caroline Lucas (Brighton, Pavilion) (Green)

I want to lay out the new maths of climate change, which quantifies the difference between the total amount of fossil fuels in existence that we know of and the amount of coal, oil and gas that can be burnt unmitigated if we are to have a decent chance of achieving the internationally agreed objective of limiting global warming to below 2°. Industry figures suggest that about 2,795 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide are locked up in the known proven coal, oil and gas reserves around the world. That figure can be compared with the much smaller amount, 565 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, that research by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research has identified as remaining in our carbon budget for the period 2011 to 2050. That shows that only about one fifth of known fossil fuel reserves can be burnt and their emissions released if we are to stay within the carbon budget. That analysis was confirmed by the International Energy Agency in its recent world energy outlook for 2012.

Research by the Carbon Tracker initiative has shown that at the end of 2010, 745 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide were present as coal, oil and gas reserves on the stock exchanges of the world. That means that just the reserves owned by listed companies, if burned so that the carbon dioxide is released, already exceed the 2° carbon budget. In other words, there is a major disconnect between the direction the world’s stock exchanges are taking and global efforts to prevent dangerous climate change, such as the recent UN negotiations at which the Secretary of State worked hard to argue for a 2° threshold.

Lord Stern made the following observation in a Financial Times article during the Durban climate conference last December:

“As the negotiations at the UN climate change summit in Durban reach the critical stage, we must not overlook a fundamental contradiction between the way global fossil fuel reserves are evaluated and long-term policy goals. By ignoring this contradiction, companies and markets, as well as governments, are undermining management of the huge risks that rising levels of greenhouse gases pose to their survival.”

The UK has led the way in using carbon budgets to manage its progress on reducing domestic emissions and it is time to apply that approach to the financial markets and align the energy sector with climate targets. Otherwise, we are in danger of allowing a lack of proper financial oversight and regulation to condemn us to temperature rises of as much as 6°—a figure that was even reinforced in a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers just last month.

The UK economy is particularly exposed because of the global role played by our financial sector in raising capital. London’s strong reputation attracts companies from all around the world and has resulted in it becoming one of the global centres for natural resources companies. Indeed, the UK has a much greater exposure to climate change risk through London’s financial market than it does from its own domestic emissions. Carbon Tracker analysis shows that at the end of 2010 the coal, oil and gas listed in London was the equivalent of 105.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. That is 10 times the UK’s domestic carbon budget of around 10 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide between 2011 and 2050.

Very few of these reserves are actually located in the UK. For example, one third of the coal is in Australia, with major reserves also in Indonesia, South Africa and Botswana. Only a tiny proportion of the coal listed in London is actually in the UK—about 0.36%. This means that investors, such as pension funds, which put their money into so-called UK funds are in fact exposing themselves to risks around the world. For example, there are increasing constraints on the markets for coal across the world, including carbon taxes in Australia and South Africa, the EU emissions trading scheme, carbon intensity targets in China, mercury regulations in the United States, and water availability in India. Moreover, renewable technologies are becoming more advanced and more competitive on price all the time. That has led to increasing uncertainty about the viability of new coal power generation in a number of markets.

The Kay review commissioned by the Government found that equity markets are subject to structural flaws which prevent the management of investments from reflecting the long-term investment horizon of many pension funds. John Kay recommended that metrics should be directly relevant to the creation of long-term value in companies. Until the markets are able to demonstrate that they have fully integrated such risks, it is clear that they will be subject to the dangers of financial instability. Given that climate change is an enormously important long-term systemic risk, as well as a massive market failure, it should surely be seen as a key test of whether markets have adequate information and are functioning efficiently.

The Government have already taken an important first step towards giving markets some of the information they need to deal effectively with climate-associated risk, by introducing greenhouse gas reporting as part of the disclosure requirements for large listed companies. This puts emissions information alongside the material financial data provided for the investor audience. That is a useful first step, but it is important that these emissions data also pass the materiality test, and are of use to investors. However, the current proposal is for a one-size-fits-all approach, which will not give investors information about just how exposed a company is as the result of increasing constraints on carbon intensive activities. Whether a mining company has energy efficient offices or an oil company reduces its business travel provides no material information for shareholders. Good housekeeping by companies whose core business is increasing the production of billions of tonnes of coal and oil simply will not deliver the scale and pace of change required. What investors need is a forward-looking indicator of how the stock levels of fossil fuels compare with the future market for the companies’ products—coal, oil and gas.

Therefore, I propose that the Government should demonstrate true leadership by requiring extractive companies to report the greenhouse gas emissions potential of their reserves. I recognise that it is the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs that leads on greenhouse gas reporting, but I hope that the Minister can assure me that the Department for Energy and Climate Change is actively involved in discussions about the shape of the proposals and that he is using every opportunity to press for an approach that will demonstrate the UK’s commitment to global leadership and protect our economy from the threats posed by the carbon bubble.

The Climate Change Act 2008 draws its powers from the Companies Act 2006, and section 416(4) of that Act allows the Secretary of State to

Requiring disclosure of the greenhouse gas emissions potential of reserves is therefore a matter of helping directors to fulfil the duty to report on what might affect the future performance of their company. Boards should be required to explain how their business model is compatible with future scenarios. Directors should be required to explain what level of climate change they are assuming in their strategy and which technologies they assume will be in place by what date. For example, we need to know whether the management of mining and oil companies currently assume that the world will continue on the pathway to 6° of warming.

Many business leaders have made statements supporting the 2° framework and emissions targets. They need to explain how such a position is compatible with their current business model that includes fossil fuel assets. It is clear that business as usual will not prevent dangerous climate change; on the contrary, it is much more likely to lead to catastrophic climate change. Therefore, the Government need to create a framework that facilitates change and protects the economy.

This is probably a good point at which to explain briefly why carbon capture and storage is not the answer to the challenges I have outlined. CCS would obviously primarily be applied only to major coal and gas generation point sources of emission—power stations. It will have no impact on the oil-related emissions generated by transport. Furthermore, given the huge difference between the tight carbon budget and the huge fossil fuel reserves, even widespread CCS would not close the gap sufficiently.

If companies are using a business model based on CCS, they should be required to explain clearly their assumptions about time scales and cost. The International Energy Agency has indicated that commercially available CCS is not likely to come in until after 2030. That leaves around two decades of unmitigated emissions if business continues along the current trajectory, with the carbon budget well and truly spent before CCS can come in. Even at that point, it could be prohibitively expensive to retrofit to existing plants and CCS would primarily be added to new facilities. Unless investors are taking a particularly long-term view, they will not be factoring that into their assessments of a company’s value—there is too much uncertainty. Is it realistic to expect pension funds, for example, to put their money behind a technology that is not yet proven commercially and which even the industry accepts is decades away? If the future viability of coal companies is dependent on CCS in the near future, investors should know about it.

DECC has developed the capital markets climate initiative. That recognises the important role of public sector action in mobilising private capital and encouraging new markets in low carbon investments. However, at present the initiative is completely missing the other side of the equation; there is a need to change the frameworks around the high carbon end of the spectrum to drive capital towards the low carbon end. By starting to address the full picture of capital markets and climate change, the Government can redress the imbalance.

DECC’s own policies, of course, should also be helping to make markets more resilient in the face of climate change, not less so. Yet tomorrow sees the Second Reading of the Government’s much anticipated Energy Bill, which creates a legal framework to lock the UK into expensive, high carbon gas generation for decades to come. The Bill not only runs counter to scientific advice on the urgency of action needed to avoid irreversible climate change and prevent devastating global warming, but omits a target to reflect the independent expert advice of the Committee on Climate Change—that emissions from the power sector should be virtually zero by 2030.

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19:56 John Hayes (Conservative)

How disappointed I am with the Minister’s response. I base my statements on expert advice from financial analysts, university academics and climate experts, so his patronising response is particularly misplaced. We may disagree about the precise time that CCS will come in, but the very fact that there is uncertainty surely means that financial markets should be addressing it.

On the Minister’s point that the Greens are somehow on the fringe, we have been told that for 30 years. We were told that when we started talking about the ozone layer and about climate change, and eventually the other parties caught up. I hope that he catches up soon, too, because if he does not the future looks pretty grim.

The hon. Lady knows that the Committee on Climate Change has recognised in its recent progress report—I know that she takes that seriously and that she will have read it—that we are on track to meet our first three carbon budgets, which amount to a 35% reduction in emissions by 2020. She knows that, as a result of the levy control framework negotiations that led to the bargain between the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Treasury, we have made £7.6 billion available for investment in renewable technology, carbon capture and storage and, at the back end of that period, nuclear power, which she acknowledged recently as salient, because it is a low carbon technology.

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