What If 19.75% Of The Electorate Switch To The Party With The Best Climate Policy That Can Win In Their Seat?

If 19.75% of the electorate switched to the party with the best climate policy that could win in their seat, the next general election result would look something like this:

Methodology:

• Start from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election where the vote shares (GB) are Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%.
• Subtract 19.75% from each party's votes in this seat.
• Add 19.75% of the electorate to the party with the best climate policy that can win.
• For this example, we've estimated that the parties rank on climate policy best to worst as follows:
  Green, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, Labour, SNP
• NB: it's implicit in this methodology that VoteClimate can persuade 19.75% of people who might not otherwise have voted to Vote Climate.

Labour just lose their majority with the Greens by far the 2nd-largest party. The Tories and SNP are completely wiped out.

But 19.75% of the electorate is 9 million people.

We need a more radical, more achievable plan... See What If 4.25% Of The Electorate Switch From Labour To A Party With Better Climate Policy?.

[Last updated: September 2023]

See also: Electoral Analysis