What If One Million Voters Switch To The Party With The Best Climate Policy That Can Win In Their Seat?

If one million voters switched to the party with the best climate policy that could win in their seat, the next general election result would look something like this:

Methodology:

• Start from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election where the vote shares (GB) are Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%.
• One million voters is 2.1% of the electorate.
• Subtract 2.1% from each party's votes in this seat.
• Add 2.1% of the electorate to the party with the best climate policy that can win.
• For this example, we've estimated that the parties rank on climate policy best to worst as follows:
  Green, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, Labour, SNP
• NB: it's implicit in this methodology that VoteClimate can persuade 2.1% of people who might not otherwise have voted to Vote Climate.

Uh oh: Labour's majority is even greater than the scenario where no one switches (VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election).

Would it be any different if more people could be persuaded to Vote Climate? See What If 7.5% Of The Electorate Switch To The Party With The Best Climate Policy That Can Win In Their Seat?

[Last updated: September 2023]

See also: Electoral Analysis