What If 7.5% Of The Electorate Switch To The Party With The Best Climate Policy That Can Win In Their Seat?

If 7.5% of the electorate switched to the party with the best climate policy that could win in their seat, the next general election result would look something like this:

Methodology:

• Start from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election where the vote shares (GB) are Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform: 6.1%.
• Subtract 7.5% from each party's votes in this seat.
• Add 7.5% of the electorate to the party with the best climate policy that can win.
• For this example, we've estimated that the parties rank on climate policy best to worst as follows:
  Green, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, Labour, SNP
• NB: it's implicit in this methodology that VoteClimate can persuade 7.5% of people who might not otherwise have voted to Vote Climate.

Wow: Labour's majority is massively larger than the scenario where no one switches (VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election).

How many voters need to switch for the VoteClimate strategy to work? See What If 19.75% Of The Electorate Switch To The Party With The Best Climate Policy That Can Win In Their Seat?.

We need a more radical plan... See What If 4.25% Of The Electorate Switch From Labour To A Party With Better Climate Policy?.

[Last updated: September 2023]

See also: Electoral Analysis