What Will It Take For Labour To Step Up On Climate? (Update)

3 December 2023

Open letter to Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, Friends of the Earth, Dale Vince and all other groups and individuals concerned about climate and ecology.

[This article updates one with the same title from October 2023]

Overview

This analysis quantifies what is required at the ballot box to force Labour to commit to tackle the climate emergency.

The headline conclusions are as follows:

4.25% of voters need to threaten to switch away from Labour

To be effective the switch needs to be tactically well co-ordinated in just 21 marginal seats

In 48 further marginals climate-voters must vote for any party with better climate policies than Labour

4.25% of the electorate in 69 seats is just 215,000 voters!

We have a huge and historic opportunity to force a race to the top on climate policy

Current Baseline

At the next general election, if voters behave as predicted in current opinion polls, Labour are heading for a landslide majority:

Source: VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election (Sep 2023)

There is no pressure on and no incentive for Labour to improve its climate policies.

A premise of this analysis is that the Green Party, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and SNP have better climate policies than Labour, and the Conservatives even worse.

Can We Force Labour To Step Up?

Yes: the conclusion of VoteClimate's analysis is that we the people and the activists hold the power to force Labour to commit to action on the climate emergency.

The solution is to persuade a relatively small segment of the population to commit to vote for parties with better climate policies than Labour. Armed with those commitments, activist groups can unite to lobby Labour before they write their manifesto and demonstrate that they will not gain a Commons majority, unless their policies on climate are significantly improved.

We have shown that either a 7.5% Swing From Labour To Lib Dems or an 8% Swing From Labour To Greens could deny Labour a majority. A hybrid strategy is significantly more powerful.

Just 4.25% Need To Switch

If 4.25% of the electorate currently intending to vote Labour commit to vote for a party with better climate policies, Labour will fall short of a majority:

Source: What If 4.25% Of The Electorate Switch From Labour To A Party With Better Climate Policy?

Compared to the main election forecast [top of page], seats would switch between parties as follows:

Points to note:

• Labour lose quite a few seats to the Conservatives but the Conservatives remain a long, long way from returning to power.
• In seats switching from Labour to parties with better climate policies, it's critical that climate-voters vote tactically locally as a block for the alternative party with the best chance of winning. Join VoteClimate to ensure that happens.
• That's 17+3+1 = just 21 seats.
• In the 48 seats switching from Labour to Conservative (ie ones Labour would otherwise win from the Conservatives without tactical climate-voting), climate-voters must vote for any party with better climate policies than Labour.
• In all others seats, climate-voters can follow their conscience and vote for any party with strong climate policies.

So we need 4.25% of the electorate to swing away from Labour in 69 seats. With approx 73,000 in each seat, that's around 215,000 voters!

For a seat-by-seat break-down please see What If 4.25% Of The Electorate Switch From Labour To A Party With Better Climate Policy?

Are 4.25% Ready To Vote Climate?

The required vote shares are not unprecedented. In the 2010 general election the Lib Dems polled 23%. At the 1999 European elections the UK Green Party polled 14.5%.

In autumn 2022 the ONS found that 28% of UK adults were very worried about climate change, a further 46% were worried. Source: ONS (Fig1).

If we can enlist the combined UK memberships of Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Extinction Rebellion, WWF and other conservation & environmental groups, we have a massive chance.

Letting The Conservatives In?

Any tactical voting that lets the Conservatives slip back into government would be disastrous for climate. The scenario above leaves the Conservatives 100+ seats short of a majority. Obviously, that situation should be re-examined closer to the election.

An unpalatable consequence of the election arithmetic is that switching away from Labour will lead to some voters ending up with a Conservative MP instead of a Labour MP. There is no way to avoid this while applying pressure to Labour. We must hope that Labour sees sense and steps up to its responsibilities on climate, and these outcomes can be averted.

Voter Concerns

Current polling shows that climate has slipped down the list of voters' election priorities. This is likely a consequence of the Tories recasting the cost-of-living crisis, which they have helped create, as an anti-green rallying-cry.

All climate activists need to stand firm and make absolutely clear that:

• A failure to implement green policies has left us unnecessarily vulnerable to high fossil-fuel prices.
• That most voter concerns such as cost of living, immigration, NHS are exacerbated by a failure to act on climate.

Conclusion: Together We Could Swing This

A climate minority really can turn the first-past-the-post system on its head and start a race to the top between parties on climate policy.

If we can force Labour to offer genuine climate policies, we then have the opportunity to take this to the Lib Dems and SNP, and incentivise them to improve their offering. And then take this back to Labour, creating a virtuous circle.

Author

Ben Horton

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