VoteClimate: Lib Dem Most Marginal Local Elections - 7 May 2026

Lib Dem Most Marginal Local Elections - 7 May 2026

At the top of the table, you can see the places where the Liberal Democrat Party is predicted to achieve a slender majority on 7 May 2026. Further down the table, we show the places where other parties will likely have slender majorities and the Liberal Democrat Party has the greatest opportunity to overtake them. If we can galvanise even small numbers of votes in these places we could swing the outcome in favour of climate. Do you know anyone who lives in these areas? If so, please share our voting recommendations.

Forecast vote shares (GB): Reform: 26.5% | Labour: 18.6% | Conservative: 18.5% | Green: 16.2% | Liberal Democrat: 12%

[Last updated: April 2026]

Location Expected Winner Liberal Democrat Votes Majority / Votes Required
Caxton & Papworth - South Cambridgeshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 596 596 104 4.9%
Charlton Kings - Cheltenham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 547 547 88 4.9%
Shrub End - Colchester - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 588 588 100 4.8%
Thistleberry - Newcastle Under Lyme - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 371 371 58 4.8%
Standlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt - West Oxfordshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 568 568 82 4.7%
Fulham Town - Hammersmith And Fulham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 515 515 84 4.6%
Lindley - Kirklees - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,729 1,729 257 4.6%
Rayleigh South - Essex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,339 1,339 203 4.6%
Eaton - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,207 1,207 188 4.5%
Spencers Wood & Swallowfield - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 956 956 133 4.5%
Hesters Way - Cheltenham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 325 325 43 4.4%
St Katharine's & Wapping - Tower Hamlets - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 902 902 133 4.3%
Manor - Stockport - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 899 899 128 4.2%
Crouch End - Haringey - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,806 1,806 232 4.2%
Dulwich Village - Southwark - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,247 1,247 194 4.1%
Midhurst - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,048 1,048 136 4.1%
Gunthorpe - Peterborough - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 817 817 86 4.0%
Elmdon - Solihull - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,014 1,014 117 3.9%
Holt - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,073 1,073 134 3.9%
Queen's Gate - Kensington And Chelsea - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 547 547 71 3.8%
Nine Elms - Wandsworth - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 247 247 34 3.8%
Catford South - Lewisham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,147 1,147 153 3.7%
Hartley Wintney & Yateley West - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,940 1,940 239 3.7%
Costessey - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,073 1,073 135 3.7%
Bramhall South & Woodford - Stockport - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,737 1,737 177 3.6%
St Thomas - Exeter - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 709 709 81 3.5%
Durrants - Three Rivers - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 753 753 72 3.5%
Bosmere - Suffolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 798 798 96 3.5%
Sheringham - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 966 966 105 3.4%
Barkham & Arborfield - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 825 825 88 3.4%
Meads - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,264 1,264 132 3.4%
Uckfield North - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 694 694 90 3.4%
Carshalton Central - Sutton - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,716 1,716 168 3.4%
Munster - Hammersmith And Fulham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 766 766 94 3.4%
Chelsea Riverside - Kensington And Chelsea - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 672 672 79 3.2%
Crystal Palace & Upper Norwood - Croydon - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,540 1,540 157 3.2%
Denmead - Winchester - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 799 799 70 3.1%
Blackheath - Lewisham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,345 1,345 145 3.1%
Hatfield South West - Welwyn Hatfield - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 478 478 51 2.9%
London Colney - St Albans - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 526 526 59 2.8%
Swavesey - South Cambridgeshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 281 281 29 2.7%
Hawkedon - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,117 1,117 92 2.7%
Rusthall & Speldhurst - Tunbridge Wells - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 743 743 76 2.6%
Finchley Church End - Barnet - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,507 1,507 152 2.6%
Chelsfield - Bromley - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 990 990 101 2.6%
Stour Valley - Suffolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 892 892 76 2.6%
Paston & Walton - Peterborough - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 758 758 51 2.5%
Paddock Wood - Tunbridge Wells - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 656 656 53 2.4%
Rye & Winchelsea - Rother - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 439 439 37 2.4%
Maiden Erlegh & Whitegates - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,027 1,027 90 2.3%
St Helier West - Sutton - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,034 1,034 76 2.3%
Chichester West - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 978 978 62 1.9%
Eastleigh North - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,152 1,152 74 1.8%
Hampton North - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,379 1,379 78 1.8%
Winchester Downlands - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 2,315 2,315 137 1.8%
Dunsmore - Rugby - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 775 775 43 1.8%
Central - Kingston Upon Hull - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 306 306 17 1.5%
Lee Green - Lewisham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,256 1,256 68 1.5%
Wivenhoe St Andrew - Essex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,302 1,302 64 1.4%
Wells - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 757 757 35 1.3%
Garrison - Preston - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 447 447 22 1.2%
Llandrindod South - Powys - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 480 480 17 1.2%
Spotland & Falinge - Rochdale - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 729 729 36 1.2%
Park Gate - Fareham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 753 753 26 1.2%
Streatham Wells - Lambeth - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 638 638 27 1.2%
Haywards Heath Town - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 977 977 40 1.1%
Broomfield and The Walthams - Chelmsford - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 735 735 29 1.1%
Fishwick & Frenchwood - Preston - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 386 386 15 1.0%
Stanway - Colchester - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 669 669 20 0.9%
Hurstpierpoint & Bolney - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,164 1,164 38 0.9%
Rickmansworth Town - Three Rivers - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 808 808 21 0.9%
Freeland and Hanborough - West Oxfordshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 446 446 12 0.9%
Bricknell - Kingston Upon Hull - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 537 537 16 0.8%
Redbourn - St Albans - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 375 375 13 0.8%
Hutton East - Brentwood - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 531 531 13 0.8%
Finchampstead - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,225 1,225 27 0.8%
Harpenden South - St Albans - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 824 824 14 0.6%
Withington - Manchester - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,048 1,048 20 0.6%
Bognor Regis East - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 503 503 7 0.3%
Ramsey - Huntingdonshire - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 753 753 6 0.2%
St Mark's & Seething Wells - Kingston Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,465 1,465 8 0.2%
Gosforth - Newcastle Upon Tyne - 7 May 2026 Liberal Democrat 1,114 1,114 7 0.2%
Yaxley - Huntingdonshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 660 658 2 0.1%
Chiswick Gunnersbury - Hounslow - 7 May 2026 Reform 917 914 3 0.1%
Hampstead Town - Camden - 7 May 2026 Reform 669 664 5 0.2%
Whitewebbs - Enfield - 7 May 2026 Green 1,157 1,148 9 0.2%
Wymondham - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,070 1,063 7 0.2%
University - Norwich - 7 May 2026 Green 643 638 5 0.2%
Petts Wood & Knoll - Bromley - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,503 1,489 14 0.3%
South Lake - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Conservative 878 870 8 0.3%
Didsbury East - Manchester - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,238 1,221 17 0.3%
Bognor Regis West & Aldwick - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 887 874 13 0.4%
Crowborough North & Jarvis Brook - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 885 872 13 0.5%
Brentwood South - Essex - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,501 1,475 26 0.5%
Ratton - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 895 879 16 0.5%
Mortlake & Barnes Common - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Green 1,621 1,593 28 0.5%
Winchester Eastgate - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Green 1,550 1,525 25 0.5%
Fulwell - Sunderland - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,205 1,176 29 0.8%
Lyndon - Solihull - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,038 1,007 31 0.9%
Clarence - St Albans - 7 May 2026 Green 1,087 1,055 32 1.1%
Reepham - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Reform 763 731 32 1.1%
Uplands & Funtley - Fareham - 7 May 2026 Conservative 518 498 20 1.3%
Tadley & Baughurst - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,153 1,094 59 1.4%
Middleton - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 912 868 44 1.4%
Dewsbury East - Kirklees - 7 May 2026 Reform 893 834 59 1.6%
Heneage - North East Lincolnshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 347 323 24 1.7%
Newington & Gipsyville - Kingston Upon Hull - 7 May 2026 Labour 404 376 28 1.8%
Coulsdon Town - Croydon - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,101 1,017 84 1.8%
Rotherhithe - Southwark - 7 May 2026 Green 893 824 69 2.0%
Batchwood - St Albans - 7 May 2026 Green 864 811 53 2.1%
West Finchley - Barnet - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,514 1,385 129 2.1%
Bounds Green - Haringey - 7 May 2026 Green 730 670 60 2.2%
Badger Farm & Oliver's Battery - Winchester - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,182 1,108 74 2.2%
Lindfield & High Weald - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,205 1,103 102 2.2%
St Leonard's Forest - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 678 620 58 2.2%
Southwater & Nuthurst - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 994 910 84 2.3%
Dollis Hill - Brent - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,035 938 97 2.3%
South Richmond - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Green 1,953 1,823 130 2.3%
St Matthew's - Preston - 7 May 2026 Reform 277 251 26 2.3%
Hailsham New Town - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 726 662 64 2.4%
Thames - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,014 939 75 2.5%
Cowley - Oxford - 7 May 2026 Reform 428 396 32 2.5%
Farnborough & Crofton - Bromley - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,466 1,315 151 2.5%
Harringay - Haringey - 7 May 2026 Green 1,258 1,149 109 2.6%
Bilton - Rugby - 7 May 2026 Conservative 661 604 57 2.6%
Winchester Southern Parishes - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,147 1,017 130 2.7%
Gipping Valley - Suffolk - 7 May 2026 Reform 708 634 74 2.7%
Shirley - Southampton - 7 May 2026 Conservative 904 804 100 2.8%
Wonston & Micheldever - Winchester - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,034 954 80 2.8%
Ashton - Preston - 7 May 2026 Reform 417 369 48 2.8%
Pevensey & Stone Cross - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 485 430 55 2.9%
Hampton Vale - Peterborough - 7 May 2026 Reform 263 236 27 2.9%
West Leigh - Southend On Sea - 7 May 2026 Conservative 824 743 81 2.9%
Wanstead Village - Redbridge - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,062 934 128 2.9%
Wembley Central - Brent - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,174 1,035 139 3.0%
Garretts Green - Birmingham - 7 May 2026 Labour 550 490 60 3.1%
Crompton - Oldham - 7 May 2026 Other 895 810 85 3.2%
Castledon & Crouch - Basildon - 7 May 2026 Conservative 803 712 91 3.2%
Grove Green - Waltham Forest - 7 May 2026 Green 1,055 943 112 3.2%
Sarisbury & Whiteley - Fareham - 7 May 2026 Conservative 800 730 70 3.2%
Peel Common - Gosport - 7 May 2026 Conservative 446 403 43 3.3%
Stroud Green - Haringey - 7 May 2026 Green 1,413 1,261 152 3.3%
Fareham Crofton - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,697 1,487 210 3.3%
Brookvale & Kings Furlong - Basingstoke And Deane - 7 May 2026 Conservative 747 657 90 3.4%
Bourne - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,002 877 125 3.4%
Purbrook & Stakes South - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Conservative 905 796 109 3.5%
Tarring - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 977 840 137 3.6%
Northern Rother - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 820 708 112 3.6%
South Twickenham - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Green 2,160 1,944 216 3.7%
City Centre - Preston - 7 May 2026 Reform 365 309 56 3.7%
Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet - Isle Of Wight - 7 May 2026 Reform 491 444 47 3.7%
Ham, Petersham & Richmond Riverside - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Green 1,973 1,774 199 3.8%
Orchard Park - Kingston Upon Hull - 7 May 2026 Reform 392 329 63 3.9%
Farnborough South - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,424 1,217 207 4.0%
Brandwood & King's Heath - Birmingham - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,412 1,176 236 4.0%
Hillside - Wokingham - 7 May 2026 Conservative 1,282 1,126 156 4.1%
Henstead - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Reform 997 845 152 4.1%
Broadbridge - West Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 979 832 147 4.1%
Walpole - Ealing - 7 May 2026 Green 1,328 1,109 219 4.2%
Sovereign - East Sussex - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,002 858 144 4.2%
Glebe Farm & Tile Cross - Birmingham - 7 May 2026 Labour 795 662 133 4.4%
Petersfield Butser - Hampshire - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,464 1,221 243 4.5%
Castle - Cambridge - 7 May 2026 Reform 440 351 89 4.6%
Elland - Calderdale - 7 May 2026 Conservative 642 524 118 4.7%
Kelsey & Eden Park - Bromley - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,165 936 229 4.8%
East Finchley - Barnet - 7 May 2026 Reform 1,323 1,068 255 4.8%
Fulwell & Hampton Hill - Richmond Upon Thames - 7 May 2026 Green 2,236 1,951 285 4.9%
North Coast - Norfolk - 7 May 2026 Reform 783 641 142 4.9%
St Neots Eatons - Huntingdonshire - 7 May 2026 Other 502 390 112 5.0%

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