VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Key Battleground Seats

Liberal Democrats Key Battleground Seats

These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Lib Dems Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Oxford West and Abingdon 1st 26,072 Labour 18,447 7,625 8.6%
Esher and Walton 1st 23,620 Conservative 16,857 6,763 9.9%
Carshalton and Wallington 1st 19,226 Conservative 12,513 6,713 9.2%
Cheadle 1st 22,945 Conservative 16,424 6,521 8.1%
Lewes 1st 23,175 Conservative 17,057 6,118 8.2%
South Cambridgeshire 1st 20,929 Conservative 15,418 5,511 7.5%
Eastbourne 1st 21,508 Conservative 16,164 5,344 7.2%
Guildford 1st 21,409 Conservative 16,551 4,858 6.7%
Westmorland and Lonsdale 1st 20,874 Conservative 16,190 4,684 6.6%
St Ives 1st 21,699 Conservative 17,138 4,561 6.3%
Winchester 1st 24,915 Conservative 21,161 3,754 4.7%
Hazel Grove 1st 15,908 Conservative 12,788 3,120 4.9%
Wimbledon 1st 21,275 Labour 18,858 2,417 3.2%
Godalming and Ash 1st 18,667 Conservative 16,649 2,018 3.1%
Orkney and Shetland 1st 8,353 SNP 6,951 1,402 4.1%
Harrogate and Knaresborough 1st 19,518 Conservative 18,309 1,209 1.7%
Sutton and Cheam 1st 16,513 Conservative 15,560 953 1.3%
Taunton and Wellington 1st 22,232 Conservative 21,326 906 1.1%
Eastleigh 1st 19,025 Conservative 18,738 287 0.4%
Woking 2nd 15,996 Conservative 16,018 22 0.0%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 2nd 16,212 Conservative 16,305 93 0.1%
Didcot and Wantage 2nd 17,593 Conservative 17,701 108 0.1%
Farnham and Bordon 2nd 18,727 Conservative 19,210 483 0.7%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 2nd 14,788 Conservative 15,295 507 0.7%
Wokingham 2nd 19,421 Conservative 20,669 1,248 1.5%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire 2nd 15,610 Conservative 16,973 1,363 2.0%
Witney 2nd 16,255 Conservative 17,805 1,550 2.3%
West Dorset 2nd 19,164 Conservative 20,953 1,789 2.3%
Henley and Thame 2nd 17,396 Conservative 19,477 2,081 2.9%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted 3rd 15,747 Conservative 18,141 2,394 3.1%
North East Fife 2nd 16,372 SNP 18,845 2,473 3.6%
Chippenham 2nd 18,081 Conservative 20,688 2,607 3.5%
Thornbury and Yate 2nd 19,060 Conservative 21,789 2,729 3.5%
Finchley and Golders Green 2nd 17,483 Labour 20,302 2,819 3.6%
Newbury 2nd 15,887 Conservative 18,768 2,881 4.2%
Dorking and Horley 2nd 14,975 Conservative 18,017 3,042 4.7%
Yeovil 2nd 16,539 Conservative 19,635 3,096 4.4%
Bicester and Woodstock 3rd 14,565 Conservative 17,806 3,241 4.2%
South Devon 3rd 15,740 Conservative 19,067 3,327 4.6%
North Devon 2nd 17,480 Conservative 20,823 3,343 4.4%
Romsey and Southampton North 2nd 15,553 Conservative 18,912 3,359 4.5%
Glastonbury and Somerton 2nd 17,611 Conservative 21,147 3,536 4.6%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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