These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%
[Last updated: 24 June 2024]
| Constituency | Lib Dems Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil | 1st | 22,414 | Conservative | 14,660 | 7,754 | 9.7% |
| Wokingham | 1st | 25,530 | Conservative | 18,910 | 6,620 | 8.8% |
| Honiton and Sidmouth | 1st | 25,395 | Conservative | 18,913 | 6,482 | 8.6% |
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 1st | 21,981 | Conservative | 15,641 | 6,340 | 8.1% |
| Eastleigh | 1st | 20,880 | Conservative | 14,594 | 6,286 | 9.0% |
| North Cornwall | 1st | 22,657 | Conservative | 16,583 | 6,074 | 7.9% |
| North Devon | 1st | 22,293 | Conservative | 16,548 | 5,745 | 7.3% |
| Mid Dunbartonshire | 1st | 22,175 | SNP | 16,505 | 5,670 | 7.7% |
| Godalming and Ash | 1st | 20,919 | Conservative | 15,332 | 5,587 | 7.4% |
| Thornbury and Yate | 1st | 23,428 | Conservative | 17,909 | 5,519 | 7.1% |
| South Cotswolds | 1st | 20,069 | Conservative | 14,698 | 5,371 | 7.5% |
| Henley and Thame | 1st | 22,635 | Conservative | 17,278 | 5,357 | 7.3% |
| West Dorset | 1st | 26,712 | Conservative | 21,360 | 5,352 | 7.0% |
| Frome and East Somerset | 1st | 16,095 | Conservative | 10,870 | 5,225 | 7.4% |
| Harpenden and Berkhamsted | 1st | 23,315 | Conservative | 18,259 | 5,056 | 7.0% |
| Chesham and Amersham | 1st | 24,114 | Conservative | 19,154 | 4,960 | 6.6% |
| Edinburgh West | 1st | 23,733 | SNP | 18,871 | 4,862 | 6.4% |
| Torbay | 1st | 18,716 | Conservative | 14,038 | 4,678 | 6.1% |
| Mid Sussex | 1st | 19,202 | Conservative | 14,623 | 4,579 | 6.0% |
| Surrey Heath | 1st | 21,198 | Conservative | 16,758 | 4,440 | 6.2% |
| Sutton and Cheam | 1st | 19,299 | Conservative | 14,871 | 4,428 | 6.1% |
| North Norfolk | 1st | 21,368 | Conservative | 16,992 | 4,376 | 6.1% |
| Chichester | 1st | 19,164 | Conservative | 15,374 | 3,790 | 4.8% |
| Tunbridge Wells | 1st | 20,502 | Conservative | 16,759 | 3,743 | 4.8% |
| Newbury | 1st | 19,028 | Conservative | 15,295 | 3,733 | 5.2% |
| Tiverton and Minehead | 1st | 17,841 | Conservative | 14,152 | 3,689 | 5.1% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 1st | 18,362 | SNP | 14,805 | 3,557 | 4.8% |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 1st | 17,517 | Conservative | 14,276 | 3,241 | 4.1% |
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | 1st | 24,020 | Conservative | 21,772 | 2,248 | 3.0% |
| Bicester and Woodstock | 1st | 18,667 | Conservative | 16,509 | 2,158 | 2.9% |
| Horsham | 1st | 19,737 | Conservative | 18,380 | 1,357 | 1.7% |
| Farnham and Bordon | 1st | 19,423 | Conservative | 18,073 | 1,350 | 1.8% |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 1st | 16,529 | Conservative | 15,252 | 1,277 | 1.6% |
| Newton Abbot | 1st | 15,697 | Conservative | 15,106 | 591 | 0.8% |
| Romsey and Southampton North | 1st | 20,005 | Conservative | 19,576 | 429 | 0.6% |
| Maidenhead | 1st | 20,403 | Conservative | 20,115 | 288 | 0.4% |
| South Devon | 1st | 18,103 | Conservative | 17,951 | 152 | 0.2% |
| Stratford-on-Avon | 1st | 18,190 | Conservative | 18,094 | 96 | 0.1% |
| Witney | 2nd | 16,886 | Conservative | 16,995 | 109 | 0.1% |
| Epsom and Ewell | 2nd | 19,792 | Conservative | 20,009 | 217 | 0.3% |
| Melksham and Devizes | 2nd | 17,166 | Conservative | 18,137 | 971 | 1.3% |
| Sheffield Hallam | 2nd | 22,174 | Labour | 23,209 | 1,035 | 1.4% |
| North East Hampshire | 2nd | 18,188 | Conservative | 19,352 | 1,164 | 1.5% |
| Tewkesbury | 2nd | 14,868 | Conservative | 16,213 | 1,345 | 1.8% |
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 2nd | 14,746 | Conservative | 16,473 | 1,727 | 2.4% |
| East Hampshire | 2nd | 15,051 | Conservative | 16,822 | 1,771 | 2.5% |
| Runnymede and Weybridge | 2nd | 16,665 | Conservative | 18,750 | 2,085 | 2.8% |
| East Surrey | 2nd | 12,841 | Conservative | 16,454 | 3,613 | 4.9% |
See also: Electoral Analysis