These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 25% | Conservative: 22% | Liberal Democrat: 13% | Green: 8.8%
[Last updated: 17 February 2025]
| Constituency | Lib Dems Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tewkesbury | 1st | 19,488 | Conservative | 12,150 | 7,338 | 10.0% |
| North Devon | 1st | 20,356 | Conservative | 12,563 | 7,793 | 9.9% |
| Surrey Heath | 1st | 20,046 | Conservative | 13,190 | 6,856 | 9.5% |
| Chesham and Amersham | 1st | 22,907 | Conservative | 15,902 | 7,005 | 9.4% |
| Didcot and Wantage | 1st | 20,773 | Conservative | 13,240 | 7,533 | 9.3% |
| Dorking and Horley | 1st | 19,664 | Conservative | 13,036 | 6,628 | 9.3% |
| South Cotswolds | 1st | 21,588 | Conservative | 15,111 | 6,477 | 9.0% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 1st | 20,311 | SNP | 13,599 | 6,712 | 9.0% |
| Bicester and Woodstock | 1st | 18,599 | Conservative | 12,361 | 6,238 | 8.4% |
| Mid Dunbartonshire | 1st | 21,439 | SNP | 15,372 | 6,067 | 8.2% |
| Chelmsford | 1st | 19,169 | Conservative | 13,088 | 6,081 | 7.9% |
| Hazel Grove | 1st | 16,759 | Reform | 11,190 | 5,569 | 7.6% |
| Witney | 1st | 19,661 | Conservative | 13,900 | 5,761 | 7.6% |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 1st | 18,472 | Conservative | 12,575 | 5,897 | 7.5% |
| Frome and East Somerset | 1st | 15,701 | Reform | 10,538 | 5,163 | 7.3% |
| Sutton and Cheam | 1st | 16,899 | Conservative | 11,814 | 5,085 | 7.0% |
| Maidenhead | 1st | 23,154 | Conservative | 17,888 | 5,266 | 7.0% |
| Torbay | 1st | 17,726 | Reform | 12,432 | 5,294 | 6.9% |
| Epsom and Ewell | 1st | 19,780 | Conservative | 14,502 | 5,278 | 6.9% |
| Tiverton and Minehead | 1st | 17,283 | Conservative | 12,471 | 4,812 | 6.7% |
| Thornbury and Yate | 1st | 19,684 | Conservative | 15,024 | 4,660 | 6.0% |
| North Norfolk | 1st | 18,311 | Conservative | 14,183 | 4,128 | 5.8% |
| Newbury | 1st | 18,508 | Conservative | 14,524 | 3,984 | 5.5% |
| Melksham and Devizes | 1st | 18,937 | Conservative | 14,876 | 4,061 | 5.5% |
| Horsham | 1st | 20,532 | Conservative | 16,193 | 4,339 | 5.5% |
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | 1st | 22,590 | Conservative | 18,909 | 3,681 | 4.9% |
| Eastleigh | 1st | 15,295 | Conservative | 12,312 | 2,983 | 4.3% |
| North East Hampshire | 1st | 20,065 | Conservative | 17,368 | 2,697 | 3.5% |
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 1st | 13,297 | Reform | 10,851 | 2,446 | 3.3% |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 1st | 16,521 | Conservative | 14,291 | 2,230 | 2.8% |
| Newton Abbot | 1st | 14,477 | Reform | 12,637 | 1,840 | 2.5% |
| Godalming and Ash | 1st | 21,118 | Conservative | 19,607 | 1,511 | 2.0% |
| East Hampshire | 1st | 16,375 | Conservative | 15,674 | 701 | 1.0% |
| Farnham and Bordon | 1st | 16,886 | Conservative | 16,197 | 689 | 0.9% |
| North Dorset | 1st | 15,754 | Conservative | 15,379 | 375 | 0.5% |
| South Shropshire | 1st | 15,335 | Conservative | 15,036 | 299 | 0.4% |
| Romsey and Southampton North | 2nd | 16,845 | Conservative | 16,877 | 32 | 0.0% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 2nd | 16,956 | SNP | 17,466 | 510 | 0.7% |
| North Cotswolds | 2nd | 13,625 | Conservative | 15,002 | 1,377 | 1.9% |
| Exmouth and Exeter East | 3rd | 11,326 | Conservative | 12,975 | 1,649 | 2.1% |
| Sheffield Hallam | 2nd | 17,926 | Labour | 19,848 | 1,922 | 2.6% |
| Torridge and Tavistock | 3rd | 11,834 | Conservative | 13,920 | 2,086 | 2.8% |
| Aylesbury | 4th | 10,448 | Conservative | 12,795 | 2,347 | 3.0% |
| Hamble Valley | 2nd | 14,398 | Conservative | 16,929 | 2,531 | 3.2% |
| Burnley | 2nd | 9,127 | Reform | 11,580 | 2,453 | 3.3% |
| South West Hertfordshire | 2nd | 11,719 | Conservative | 14,260 | 2,541 | 3.5% |
| Sevenoaks | 3rd | 12,411 | Conservative | 15,670 | 3,259 | 4.4% |
| Hinckley and Bosworth | 3rd | 11,319 | Conservative | 14,712 | 3,393 | 4.4% |
| Beaconsfield | 2nd | 12,611 | Conservative | 15,895 | 3,284 | 4.5% |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | 2nd | 9,215 | Labour | 12,417 | 3,202 | 4.6% |
| Salisbury | 2nd | 11,756 | Conservative | 15,080 | 3,324 | 4.6% |
| Mid Buckinghamshire | 2nd | 13,870 | Conservative | 17,386 | 3,516 | 4.6% |
See also: Electoral Analysis