VoteClimate: Liberal Democrats Key Battleground Seats

Liberal Democrats Key Battleground Seats

These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Conservative: 26% | Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 21.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.7% | Green: 8%

[Last updated: 31 December 2024]

Constituency Lib Dems Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Hazel Grove 1st 16,800 Reform 9,750 7,050 9.7%
Tunbridge Wells 1st 22,230 Conservative 14,850 7,380 9.4%
Wokingham 1st 23,923 Conservative 16,936 6,987 9.3%
Chippenham 1st 21,006 Conservative 14,132 6,874 9.3%
Carshalton and Wallington 1st 18,984 Conservative 12,204 6,780 9.1%
West Dorset 1st 26,709 Conservative 19,798 6,911 9.1%
Harrogate and Knaresborough 1st 22,328 Conservative 15,399 6,929 8.9%
Edinburgh West 1st 18,750 SNP 12,173 6,577 8.6%
Cheltenham 1st 24,777 Conservative 18,400 6,377 8.4%
South Devon 1st 20,921 Conservative 15,001 5,920 8.2%
Stratford-on-Avon 1st 21,801 Conservative 15,931 5,870 7.8%
Glastonbury and Somerton 1st 18,920 Conservative 13,454 5,466 7.5%
Mid Sussex 1st 20,180 Conservative 14,597 5,583 7.3%
Honiton and Sidmouth 1st 21,313 Conservative 15,822 5,491 7.3%
Tewkesbury 1st 19,365 Conservative 14,208 5,157 7.0%
North Devon 1st 20,235 Conservative 14,710 5,525 7.0%
Henley and Thame 1st 22,191 Conservative 17,125 5,066 6.9%
North East Fife 1st 16,497 SNP 11,784 4,713 6.8%
Surrey Heath 1st 19,868 Conservative 15,305 4,563 6.3%
Didcot and Wantage 1st 20,658 Conservative 15,541 5,117 6.3%
Frome and East Somerset 1st 15,667 Conservative 11,225 4,442 6.3%
Dorking and Horley 1st 19,514 Conservative 15,194 4,320 6.0%
Chesham and Amersham 1st 22,665 Conservative 18,374 4,291 5.7%
Torbay 1st 17,614 Conservative 13,293 4,321 5.7%
South Cotswolds 1st 21,364 Conservative 17,476 3,888 5.4%
Bicester and Woodstock 1st 18,486 Conservative 14,494 3,992 5.4%
Chelmsford 1st 19,026 Conservative 15,277 3,749 4.9%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 1st 18,365 Conservative 14,773 3,592 4.6%
Witney 1st 19,482 Conservative 16,141 3,341 4.4%
Sutton and Cheam 1st 16,788 Conservative 13,848 2,940 4.1%
Tiverton and Minehead 1st 17,139 Conservative 14,532 2,607 3.6%
Epsom and Ewell 1st 19,613 Conservative 16,899 2,714 3.5%
Maidenhead 1st 21,993 Conservative 19,781 2,212 2.9%
Thornbury and Yate 1st 19,483 Conservative 17,417 2,066 2.6%
North Norfolk 1st 18,090 Conservative 16,350 1,740 2.4%
Newbury 1st 18,290 Conservative 16,764 1,526 2.1%
Melksham and Devizes 1st 18,726 Conservative 17,203 1,523 2.1%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 1st 15,633 SNP 14,125 1,508 2.0%
Horsham 1st 20,301 Conservative 18,724 1,577 2.0%
Newton Abbot 1st 14,390 Conservative 12,950 1,440 1.9%
Eastleigh 1st 15,154 Conservative 14,350 804 1.1%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 1st 13,219 Conservative 12,476 743 1.0%
Mid Dunbartonshire 1st 15,370 SNP 14,680 690 0.9%
Mid Dorset and North Poole 1st 21,410 Conservative 20,802 608 0.8%
North East Hampshire 2nd 19,790 Conservative 19,976 186 0.2%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire 2nd 16,351 Conservative 16,628 277 0.4%
Burnley 3rd 9,101 Reform 10,324 1,223 1.6%
Godalming and Ash 2nd 20,734 Conservative 22,314 1,580 2.1%
Farnham and Bordon 2nd 16,654 Conservative 18,676 2,022 2.7%
East Hampshire 2nd 16,136 Conservative 18,027 1,891 2.7%
Sheffield Hallam 2nd 17,412 Labour 19,468 2,056 2.8%
South Shropshire 2nd 15,138 Conservative 17,399 2,261 2.9%
North Dorset 2nd 15,526 Conservative 17,700 2,174 3.0%
Romsey and Southampton North 2nd 16,562 Conservative 19,306 2,744 3.8%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark 2nd 9,317 Labour 12,709 3,392 4.9%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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