These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%
[Last updated: September 2023]
| Constituency | Lib Dems Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford West and Abingdon | 1st | 26,068 | Labour | 18,427 | 7,641 | 8.7% |
| Esher and Walton | 1st | 23,614 | Conservative | 16,851 | 6,763 | 9.9% |
| Carshalton and Wallington | 1st | 19,233 | Conservative | 12,516 | 6,717 | 9.2% |
| Cheadle | 1st | 22,953 | Conservative | 16,428 | 6,525 | 8.1% |
| Lewes | 1st | 23,171 | Conservative | 17,057 | 6,114 | 8.2% |
| South Cambridgeshire | 1st | 20,887 | Conservative | 15,388 | 5,499 | 7.5% |
| Eastbourne | 1st | 21,504 | Conservative | 16,161 | 5,343 | 7.2% |
| Guildford | 1st | 21,407 | Conservative | 16,548 | 4,859 | 6.7% |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | 1st | 20,872 | Conservative | 16,191 | 4,681 | 6.6% |
| St Ives | 1st | 21,700 | Conservative | 17,135 | 4,565 | 6.3% |
| Winchester | 1st | 24,901 | Conservative | 21,114 | 3,787 | 4.7% |
| Hazel Grove | 1st | 15,902 | Conservative | 12,784 | 3,118 | 4.9% |
| Wimbledon | 1st | 21,281 | Labour | 18,861 | 2,420 | 3.2% |
| Godalming and Ash | 1st | 18,654 | Conservative | 16,634 | 2,020 | 3.1% |
| Orkney and Shetland | 1st | 8,354 | SNP | 6,950 | 1,404 | 4.1% |
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 1st | 19,514 | Conservative | 18,305 | 1,209 | 1.7% |
| Sutton and Cheam | 1st | 16,513 | Conservative | 15,561 | 952 | 1.3% |
| Taunton and Wellington | 1st | 22,242 | Conservative | 21,334 | 908 | 1.1% |
| Eastleigh | 1st | 19,006 | Conservative | 18,721 | 285 | 0.4% |
| Woking | 2nd | 16,001 | Conservative | 16,020 | 19 | 0.0% |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 2nd | 16,278 | Conservative | 16,369 | 91 | 0.1% |
| Didcot and Wantage | 2nd | 17,565 | Conservative | 17,670 | 105 | 0.1% |
| Farnham and Bordon | 2nd | 18,736 | Conservative | 19,211 | 475 | 0.7% |
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 2nd | 14,789 | Conservative | 15,293 | 504 | 0.7% |
| Wokingham | 2nd | 19,424 | Conservative | 20,678 | 1,254 | 1.5% |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 2nd | 15,608 | Conservative | 16,959 | 1,351 | 2.0% |
| Witney | 2nd | 16,277 | Conservative | 17,825 | 1,548 | 2.2% |
| West Dorset | 2nd | 19,160 | Conservative | 20,947 | 1,787 | 2.3% |
| Henley and Thame | 2nd | 17,404 | Conservative | 19,482 | 2,078 | 2.9% |
| Harpenden and Berkhamsted | 3rd | 15,749 | Conservative | 18,141 | 2,392 | 3.1% |
| North East Fife | 2nd | 16,371 | SNP | 18,851 | 2,480 | 3.6% |
| Chippenham | 2nd | 18,084 | Conservative | 20,690 | 2,606 | 3.5% |
| Finchley and Golders Green | 2nd | 16,789 | Labour | 19,498 | 2,709 | 3.5% |
| Thornbury and Yate | 2nd | 19,050 | Conservative | 21,775 | 2,725 | 3.5% |
| Newbury | 2nd | 15,888 | Conservative | 18,767 | 2,879 | 4.2% |
| Dorking and Horley | 2nd | 14,968 | Conservative | 18,011 | 3,043 | 4.7% |
| Yeovil | 2nd | 16,537 | Conservative | 19,633 | 3,096 | 4.4% |
| Bicester and Woodstock | 3rd | 14,581 | Conservative | 17,831 | 3,250 | 4.2% |
| South Devon | 3rd | 15,738 | Conservative | 19,069 | 3,331 | 4.6% |
| North Devon | 2nd | 17,476 | Conservative | 20,823 | 3,347 | 4.4% |
| Romsey and Southampton North | 2nd | 15,554 | Conservative | 18,919 | 3,365 | 4.5% |
| Glastonbury and Somerton | 2nd | 17,615 | Conservative | 21,150 | 3,535 | 4.6% |
See also: Electoral Analysis