These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.4% | Reform: 23.3% | Conservative: 19.9% | Green: 11.7% | Liberal Democrat: 10.4%
[Last updated: September 2026]
| Constituency | Lib Dems Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Dorset | 1st | 25,528 | Conservative | 17,947 | 7,581 | 10.0% |
| Taunton and Wellington | 1st | 20,383 | Reform | 12,563 | 7,820 | 9.9% |
| Yeovil | 1st | 19,824 | Reform | 12,013 | 7,811 | 9.8% |
| Wokingham | 1st | 21,827 | Conservative | 14,576 | 7,251 | 9.7% |
| Tunbridge Wells | 1st | 20,002 | Conservative | 12,507 | 7,495 | 9.5% |
| Chippenham | 1st | 19,004 | Conservative | 12,002 | 7,002 | 9.4% |
| North Cornwall | 1st | 20,178 | Reform | 13,039 | 7,139 | 9.3% |
| Cheltenham | 1st | 23,604 | Conservative | 16,617 | 6,987 | 9.2% |
| Carshalton and Wallington | 1st | 17,034 | Conservative | 10,220 | 6,814 | 9.2% |
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 1st | 20,270 | Conservative | 13,147 | 7,123 | 9.1% |
| South Devon | 1st | 19,004 | Conservative | 12,840 | 6,164 | 8.5% |
| Stratford-on-Avon | 1st | 19,735 | Conservative | 13,578 | 6,157 | 8.1% |
| Honiton and Sidmouth | 1st | 19,386 | Conservative | 13,578 | 5,808 | 7.7% |
| Mid Sussex | 1st | 18,029 | Conservative | 12,199 | 5,830 | 7.7% |
| Henley and Thame | 1st | 20,214 | Conservative | 14,737 | 5,477 | 7.4% |
| Tewkesbury | 1st | 17,444 | Conservative | 12,031 | 5,413 | 7.4% |
| Glastonbury and Somerton | 1st | 16,999 | Reform | 11,909 | 5,090 | 7.0% |
| North Devon | 1st | 18,210 | Reform | 12,698 | 5,512 | 7.0% |
| Surrey Heath | 1st | 18,058 | Conservative | 13,138 | 4,920 | 6.8% |
| Didcot and Wantage | 1st | 18,490 | Conservative | 13,044 | 5,446 | 6.7% |
| Dorking and Horley | 1st | 17,585 | Conservative | 12,898 | 4,687 | 6.5% |
| Chesham and Amersham | 1st | 20,695 | Conservative | 15,884 | 4,811 | 6.4% |
| South Cotswolds | 1st | 19,468 | Conservative | 15,070 | 4,398 | 6.1% |
| Bicester and Woodstock | 1st | 16,531 | Conservative | 12,164 | 4,367 | 5.9% |
| Chelmsford | 1st | 17,097 | Conservative | 12,921 | 4,176 | 5.4% |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 1st | 16,409 | Conservative | 12,375 | 4,034 | 5.2% |
| Witney | 1st | 17,606 | Conservative | 13,773 | 3,833 | 5.1% |
| Hazel Grove | 1st | 14,753 | Reform | 11,255 | 3,498 | 4.8% |
| Sutton and Cheam | 1st | 14,973 | Conservative | 11,596 | 3,377 | 4.7% |
| Frome and East Somerset | 1st | 13,806 | Reform | 10,551 | 3,255 | 4.6% |
| Epsom and Ewell | 1st | 17,607 | Conservative | 14,296 | 3,311 | 4.3% |
| Tiverton and Minehead | 1st | 15,359 | Conservative | 12,272 | 3,087 | 4.3% |
| Maidenhead | 1st | 20,829 | Conservative | 17,796 | 3,033 | 4.0% |
| Torbay | 1st | 15,804 | Reform | 12,766 | 3,038 | 4.0% |
| Thornbury and Yate | 1st | 17,546 | Conservative | 14,826 | 2,720 | 3.5% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 1st | 16,956 | SNP | 14,328 | 2,628 | 3.4% |
| North Norfolk | 1st | 16,428 | Conservative | 14,080 | 2,348 | 3.3% |
| Newbury | 1st | 16,566 | Conservative | 14,388 | 2,178 | 3.0% |
| Melksham and Devizes | 1st | 16,899 | Conservative | 14,697 | 2,202 | 3.0% |
| Horsham | 1st | 18,340 | Conservative | 16,014 | 2,326 | 2.9% |
| Eastleigh | 1st | 13,503 | Conservative | 12,050 | 1,453 | 2.1% |
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | 1st | 20,336 | Conservative | 18,828 | 1,508 | 2.0% |
| North East Hampshire | 1st | 17,933 | Conservative | 17,189 | 744 | 1.0% |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 1st | 14,552 | Conservative | 13,963 | 589 | 0.7% |
| Newton Abbot | 2nd | 12,686 | Reform | 12,761 | 75 | 0.1% |
| Godalming and Ash | 2nd | 19,054 | Conservative | 19,575 | 521 | 0.7% |
| Farnham and Bordon | 2nd | 14,930 | Conservative | 15,882 | 952 | 1.3% |
| East Hampshire | 2nd | 14,523 | Conservative | 15,411 | 888 | 1.3% |
| South Shropshire | 3rd | 13,463 | Conservative | 14,652 | 1,189 | 1.6% |
| North Dorset | 2nd | 13,933 | Conservative | 15,084 | 1,151 | 1.6% |
| Romsey and Southampton North | 2nd | 14,999 | Conservative | 16,655 | 1,656 | 2.3% |
| Exmouth and Exeter East | 4th | 9,731 | Conservative | 12,436 | 2,705 | 3.4% |
| North Cotswolds | 2nd | 11,906 | Conservative | 14,570 | 2,664 | 3.6% |
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 3rd | 9,494 | Reform | 12,318 | 2,824 | 3.9% |
| Aylesbury | 4th | 8,945 | Conservative | 12,234 | 3,289 | 4.2% |
| Torridge and Tavistock | 3rd | 10,214 | Reform | 13,832 | 3,618 | 4.8% |
| Hamble Valley | 3rd | 12,580 | Conservative | 16,445 | 3,865 | 4.9% |
| Burnley | 3rd | 7,798 | Reform | 11,499 | 3,701 | 4.9% |
See also: Electoral Analysis