These are the Lib Dems' most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the Lib Dems should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the Lib Dems are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 34.6% | Conservative: 24.4% | Reform: 14.7% | Liberal Democrat: 12.6% | Green: 6.9%
[Last updated: 11 August 2024]
| Constituency | Lib Dems Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1st | 25,076 | Conservative | 17,866 | 7,210 | 9.5% |
| South Devon | 1st | 22,540 | Conservative | 15,413 | 7,127 | 9.9% |
| Stratford-on-Avon | 1st | 23,450 | Conservative | 16,328 | 7,122 | 9.4% |
| North Devon | 1st | 21,820 | Conservative | 15,076 | 6,744 | 8.5% |
| Honiton and Sidmouth | 1st | 23,007 | Conservative | 16,307 | 6,700 | 8.9% |
| Mid Sussex | 1st | 21,136 | Conservative | 14,474 | 6,662 | 8.8% |
| Glastonbury and Somerton | 1st | 20,364 | Conservative | 13,753 | 6,611 | 9.1% |
| Hazel Grove | 1st | 17,328 | Labour | 10,828 | 6,500 | 8.9% |
| Henley and Thame | 1st | 23,904 | Conservative | 17,637 | 6,267 | 8.5% |
| Tewkesbury | 1st | 20,730 | Conservative | 14,468 | 6,262 | 8.5% |
| Didcot and Wantage | 1st | 21,793 | Conservative | 15,560 | 6,233 | 7.7% |
| Surrey Heath | 1st | 21,387 | Conservative | 15,747 | 5,640 | 7.8% |
| Chesham and Amersham | 1st | 24,422 | Conservative | 18,971 | 5,451 | 7.3% |
| Frome and East Somerset | 1st | 16,580 | Conservative | 11,165 | 5,415 | 7.7% |
| Dorking and Horley | 1st | 20,921 | Conservative | 15,530 | 5,391 | 7.5% |
| Torbay | 1st | 18,937 | Conservative | 13,588 | 5,349 | 7.0% |
| South Cotswolds | 1st | 22,961 | Conservative | 17,988 | 4,973 | 6.9% |
| Bicester and Woodstock | 1st | 19,419 | Conservative | 14,461 | 4,958 | 6.7% |
| Chelmsford | 1st | 20,214 | Conservative | 15,461 | 4,753 | 6.2% |
| St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | 1st | 19,517 | Conservative | 14,896 | 4,621 | 5.9% |
| Witney | 1st | 20,832 | Conservative | 16,493 | 4,339 | 5.8% |
| Sutton and Cheam | 1st | 17,576 | Conservative | 13,775 | 3,801 | 5.3% |
| Epsom and Ewell | 1st | 20,674 | Conservative | 16,988 | 3,686 | 4.8% |
| Tiverton and Minehead | 1st | 18,326 | Conservative | 14,819 | 3,507 | 4.9% |
| Thornbury and Yate | 1st | 20,815 | Conservative | 17,801 | 3,014 | 3.9% |
| Maidenhead | 1st | 21,895 | Conservative | 18,932 | 2,963 | 3.9% |
| North Norfolk | 1st | 19,488 | Conservative | 16,903 | 2,585 | 3.6% |
| Horsham | 1st | 21,632 | Conservative | 19,115 | 2,517 | 3.2% |
| Melksham and Devizes | 1st | 20,031 | Conservative | 17,630 | 2,401 | 3.3% |
| Newbury | 1st | 19,645 | Conservative | 17,268 | 2,377 | 3.3% |
| Newton Abbot | 1st | 15,201 | Conservative | 12,955 | 2,246 | 3.0% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 1st | 18,159 | SNP | 15,999 | 2,160 | 2.8% |
| Eastleigh | 1st | 15,970 | Conservative | 14,424 | 1,546 | 2.2% |
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 1st | 13,736 | Conservative | 12,264 | 1,472 | 2.0% |
| Mid Dorset and North Poole | 1st | 21,442 | Conservative | 20,090 | 1,352 | 1.8% |
| North East Hampshire | 1st | 21,178 | Conservative | 20,544 | 634 | 0.8% |
| Ely and East Cambridgeshire | 1st | 17,127 | Conservative | 16,632 | 495 | 0.6% |
| Godalming and Ash | 2nd | 22,402 | Conservative | 23,293 | 891 | 1.2% |
| East Hampshire | 2nd | 17,234 | Conservative | 18,509 | 1,275 | 1.8% |
| Farnham and Bordon | 2nd | 17,602 | Conservative | 18,951 | 1,349 | 1.8% |
| North Dorset | 2nd | 16,619 | Conservative | 18,208 | 1,589 | 2.2% |
| South Shropshire | 2nd | 16,004 | Conservative | 17,628 | 1,624 | 2.1% |
| Romsey and Southampton North | 2nd | 17,702 | Conservative | 19,893 | 2,191 | 3.0% |
| Exmouth and Exeter East | 3rd | 11,387 | Conservative | 14,728 | 3,341 | 4.2% |
| North Cotswolds | 2nd | 14,069 | Conservative | 17,426 | 3,357 | 4.6% |
| Burnley | 2nd | 9,178 | Labour | 12,598 | 3,420 | 4.6% |
See also: Electoral Analysis