VoteClimate: The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Labour Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Stourbridge 1st 22,853 Conservative 21,510 1,343 1.7%
Tatton 1st 20,512 Conservative 19,251 1,261 1.6%
Harlow 1st 21,415 Conservative 20,190 1,225 1.7%
Ribble Valley 1st 20,661 Conservative 19,495 1,166 1.6%
Gillingham and Rainham 1st 18,372 Conservative 17,223 1,149 1.7%
Congleton 1st 21,515 Conservative 20,371 1,144 1.6%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr 1st 18,458 Conservative 17,349 1,109 1.6%
Glasgow South 1st 17,873 SNP 16,822 1,051 1.6%
Rochester and Strood 1st 20,291 Conservative 19,432 859 1.1%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West 1st 19,917 SNP 19,237 680 1.0%
Isle of Wight West 1st 14,403 Conservative 13,812 591 1.0%
Isle of Wight East 1st 14,060 Conservative 13,484 576 1.0%
Portsmouth North 1st 19,355 Conservative 18,834 521 0.7%
North East Hertfordshire 1st 21,177 Conservative 20,682 495 0.6%
Wellingborough and Rushden 1st 20,067 Conservative 19,627 440 0.6%
Ceredigion Preseli 1st 16,593 Plaid Cymru 16,185 408 0.5%
Hertford and Stortford 1st 21,081 Conservative 20,677 404 0.5%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley 1st 17,682 SNP 17,306 376 0.5%
Glasgow West 1st 15,316 SNP 14,987 329 0.5%
Dartford 1st 20,653 Conservative 20,353 300 0.4%
Aylesbury 1st 17,450 Conservative 17,196 254 0.4%
Lowestoft 1st 18,505 Conservative 18,259 246 0.3%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard 1st 19,486 Conservative 19,362 124 0.2%
Fylde 1st 21,610 Conservative 21,491 119 0.2%
Selby 1st 19,158 Conservative 19,063 95 0.1%
West Dunbartonshire 1st 20,871 SNP 20,829 42 0.1%
South Dorset 2nd 19,831 Conservative 19,877 46 0.1%
South Derbyshire 2nd 19,354 Conservative 19,492 138 0.2%
Dunfermline and Dollar 2nd 16,811 SNP 17,015 204 0.3%
Derbyshire Dales 2nd 21,385 Conservative 21,627 242 0.3%
Amber Valley 2nd 19,181 Conservative 19,517 336 0.5%
South Norfolk 2nd 16,673 Conservative 17,106 433 0.7%
Bicester and Woodstock 2nd 17,360 Conservative 17,806 446 0.6%
Edinburgh South West 2nd 18,027 SNP 18,529 502 0.7%
Wetherby and Easingwold 2nd 24,468 Conservative 24,980 512 0.6%
Redditch 2nd 18,986 Conservative 19,576 590 0.9%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 3rd 14,696 Conservative 15,295 599 0.8%
Folkestone and Hythe 2nd 18,273 Conservative 18,923 650 0.9%
Romford 2nd 20,215 Conservative 20,901 686 0.9%
Staffordshire Moorlands 2nd 20,861 Conservative 21,617 756 1.0%
North Bedfordshire 2nd 22,200 Conservative 22,967 767 0.9%
Hitchin 2nd 16,257 Conservative 17,091 834 1.2%
Aldershot 2nd 18,938 Conservative 19,813 875 1.1%
Suffolk Coastal 2nd 17,804 Conservative 18,756 952 1.3%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth 2nd 19,577 Conservative 20,571 994 1.4%
Sutton Coldfield 2nd 19,170 Conservative 20,166 996 1.3%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North 2nd 18,610 SNP 19,633 1,023 1.4%
Huntingdon 2nd 23,470 Conservative 24,533 1,063 1.1%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife 2nd 16,588 SNP 17,666 1,078 1.5%
North West Leicestershire 2nd 20,778 Conservative 21,888 1,110 1.5%
Woking 3rd 14,881 Conservative 16,018 1,137 1.6%
Harwich and North Essex 2nd 19,053 Conservative 20,198 1,145 1.6%
Mid Bedfordshire 2nd 17,834 Conservative 19,029 1,195 1.7%
The Wrekin 2nd 20,629 Conservative 21,841 1,212 1.6%
South West Hertfordshire 2nd 14,644 Conservative 15,877 1,233 1.8%
Reigate 2nd 17,914 Conservative 19,224 1,310 1.7%
Waveney Valley 2nd 22,701 Conservative 24,030 1,329 1.5%
Beverley and Holderness 2nd 18,603 Conservative 19,934 1,331 1.9%
Newark 2nd 21,513 Conservative 22,960 1,447 1.8%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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