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VoteClimate: The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 25% | Conservative: 22% | Liberal Democrat: 13% | Green: 8.8%

[Last updated: 17 February 2025]

Constituency Labour Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Mid Cheshire 1st 13,795 Reform 12,414 1,381 2.0%
North East Somerset and Hanham 1st 15,446 Conservative 14,050 1,396 1.9%
Colne Valley 1st 14,149 Conservative 12,781 1,368 1.9%
Penrith and Solway 1st 14,881 Conservative 13,416 1,465 1.9%
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East 1st 12,173 Reform 10,772 1,401 1.9%
Blaydon and Consett 1st 15,913 Reform 14,648 1,265 1.8%
Worsley and Eccles 1st 15,179 Reform 13,781 1,398 1.8%
Wolverhampton South East 1st 12,682 Reform 11,318 1,364 1.8%
Aldershot 1st 14,708 Reform 13,339 1,369 1.7%
Loughborough 1st 12,840 Reform 11,673 1,167 1.7%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire 1st 9,821 Reform 8,541 1,280 1.7%
Broxtowe 1st 14,483 Reform 13,391 1,092 1.6%
Doncaster Central 1st 13,127 Reform 11,994 1,133 1.5%
Clwyd East 1st 13,685 Reform 12,609 1,076 1.4%
Stevenage 1st 13,155 Reform 12,171 984 1.4%
Swansea West 1st 10,788 Reform 9,836 952 1.3%
Southampton Itchen 1st 11,727 Reform 10,861 866 1.3%
Vale of Glamorgan 1st 13,144 Conservative 12,259 885 1.2%
Crewe and Nantwich 1st 15,569 Reform 14,663 906 1.2%
South Ribble 1st 14,826 Reform 14,000 826 1.1%
Hertford and Stortford 1st 15,406 Conservative 14,547 859 1.1%
Rugby 1st 14,530 Conservative 13,746 784 1.0%
Swindon North 1st 13,370 Conservative 12,614 756 1.0%
Gateshead Central and Whickham 1st 13,510 Reform 12,803 707 1.0%
Leeds South West and Morley 1st 13,196 Reform 12,485 711 1.0%
Newport East 1st 12,096 Reform 11,359 737 1.0%
Southport 1st 12,712 Reform 12,033 679 0.9%
Ilford South 1st 12,093 Other 11,385 708 0.9%
Edinburgh South 1st 13,267 SNP 12,653 614 0.9%
Wrexham 1st 11,688 Reform 11,089 599 0.9%
Brent West 1st 12,936 Conservative 12,349 587 0.7%
Isle of Wight West 1st 9,801 Reform 9,408 393 0.7%
Finchley and Golders Green 1st 16,533 Conservative 15,988 545 0.7%
Wakefield and Rothwell 1st 13,190 Reform 12,703 487 0.6%
North Northumberland 1st 13,101 Reform 12,663 438 0.6%
Stalybridge and Hyde 1st 12,124 Reform 11,710 414 0.6%
Redcar 1st 11,703 Reform 11,306 397 0.6%
Camborne and Redruth 1st 14,331 Reform 13,936 395 0.5%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice 1st 13,375 Reform 13,024 351 0.5%
Altrincham and Sale West 1st 15,518 Conservative 15,174 344 0.5%
Stafford 1st 13,792 Reform 13,483 309 0.4%
Bristol East 1st 17,263 Green 16,955 308 0.4%
Jarrow and Gateshead East 1st 14,155 Reform 13,929 226 0.3%
Wigan 1st 14,444 Reform 14,209 235 0.3%
Hemel Hempstead 1st 12,429 Reform 12,246 183 0.3%
Worthing West 1st 15,304 Conservative 15,119 185 0.2%
Welwyn Hatfield 1st 14,865 Conservative 14,710 155 0.2%
Penistone and Stocksbridge 1st 14,299 Reform 14,154 145 0.2%
Warrington North 1st 13,988 Reform 13,846 142 0.2%
Gloucester 1st 12,101 Reform 11,974 127 0.2%
Pontypridd 1st 11,835 Reform 11,757 78 0.1%
Southend East and Rochford 1st 11,396 Reform 11,349 47 0.1%
Bridgend 2nd 12,100 Reform 12,111 11 0.0%
Newport West and Islwyn 2nd 12,814 Reform 12,846 32 0.0%
Preston 2nd 10,039 Other 10,091 52 0.1%
Congleton 2nd 13,961 Conservative 14,016 55 0.1%
Bangor Aberconwy 2nd 10,110 Reform 10,167 57 0.1%
Cities of London and Westminster 2nd 11,374 Conservative 11,453 79 0.1%
Weston-super-Mare 2nd 12,054 Reform 12,135 81 0.1%
Bradford East 2nd 10,149 Other 10,235 86 0.1%
Banbury 2nd 13,694 Conservative 13,799 105 0.1%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor 2nd 13,775 Reform 13,879 104 0.1%
Bournemouth West 2nd 10,562 Reform 10,682 120 0.2%
Kensington and Bayswater 2nd 12,737 Conservative 12,926 189 0.2%
Huddersfield 2nd 11,007 Green 11,207 200 0.3%
Blyth and Ashington 2nd 15,052 Reform 15,313 261 0.3%
Crawley 2nd 12,875 Reform 13,161 286 0.4%
Hartlepool 2nd 12,315 Reform 12,597 282 0.4%
Northampton South 2nd 12,497 Reform 12,782 285 0.4%
South Norfolk 2nd 12,723 Conservative 13,031 308 0.4%
Bolton West 2nd 12,845 Reform 13,161 316 0.4%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare 2nd 11,630 Reform 11,963 333 0.4%
Kettering 2nd 13,220 Reform 13,587 367 0.5%
Torfaen 2nd 11,205 Reform 11,552 347 0.5%
Birmingham Erdington 2nd 10,928 Reform 11,312 384 0.5%
Rhondda and Ogmore 2nd 12,696 Reform 13,099 403 0.5%
East Thanet 2nd 12,598 Reform 13,020 422 0.6%
Stockton North 2nd 12,823 Reform 13,247 424 0.6%
Monmouthshire 2nd 15,761 Conservative 16,219 458 0.6%
Alyn and Deeside 2nd 13,607 Reform 14,122 515 0.7%
Leigh and Atherton 2nd 14,977 Reform 15,599 622 0.8%
South Derbyshire 2nd 13,140 Reform 13,763 623 0.8%
Carlisle 2nd 13,434 Reform 14,108 674 0.9%
Wolverhampton North East 2nd 10,665 Reform 11,297 632 0.9%
Hexham 2nd 20,673 Conservative 21,377 704 0.9%
Darlington 2nd 12,379 Conservative 13,049 670 0.9%
Buckingham and Bletchley 2nd 13,006 Conservative 13,723 717 1.0%
Birmingham Ladywood 2nd 11,327 Other 12,137 810 1.0%
Bassetlaw 2nd 13,756 Reform 14,520 764 1.0%
Stourbridge 2nd 11,367 Reform 12,043 676 1.0%
Birmingham Northfield 2nd 11,039 Reform 11,811 772 1.0%
Scunthorpe 2nd 11,512 Reform 12,291 779 1.1%
Bolsover 2nd 12,748 Reform 13,581 833 1.1%
Rossendale and Darwen 2nd 13,577 Reform 14,428 851 1.1%
Barnsley North 2nd 13,930 Reform 14,827 897 1.1%
Wellingborough and Rushden 2nd 13,169 Reform 14,091 922 1.2%
Telford 2nd 13,594 Reform 14,489 895 1.2%
Chipping Barnet 2nd 16,266 Conservative 17,214 948 1.2%
Erewash 2nd 12,763 Reform 13,665 902 1.3%
Bolton South and Walkden 2nd 11,028 Reform 12,050 1,022 1.3%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire 3rd 12,137 Conservative 13,159 1,022 1.3%
Caerphilly 2nd 10,518 Reform 11,478 960 1.3%
Southend West and Leigh 3rd 12,321 Conservative 13,317 996 1.3%
Ashton-under-Lyne 2nd 11,499 Reform 12,458 959 1.4%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 2nd 12,442 Reform 13,411 969 1.4%
Plymouth Moor View 2nd 13,152 Reform 14,228 1,076 1.4%
Ossett and Denby Dale 2nd 12,775 Reform 13,824 1,049 1.5%
Scarborough and Whitby 2nd 13,183 Reform 14,315 1,132 1.5%
Gravesham 3rd 12,335 Reform 13,454 1,119 1.5%
Bishop Auckland 2nd 12,683 Reform 13,769 1,086 1.5%
Dagenham and Rainham 2nd 12,259 Reform 13,451 1,192 1.6%
Stoke-on-Trent Central 2nd 11,051 Reform 12,213 1,162 1.6%
Blackpool South 2nd 12,670 Reform 13,915 1,245 1.6%
South Shields 2nd 11,063 Reform 12,171 1,108 1.6%
North East Hertfordshire 3rd 13,486 Conservative 14,769 1,283 1.7%
Mid Derbyshire 3rd 12,809 Conservative 13,975 1,166 1.7%
Newcastle-under-Lyme 2nd 11,872 Reform 13,041 1,169 1.7%
Clwyd North 3rd 10,898 Conservative 12,255 1,357 1.8%
North East Derbyshire 2nd 13,080 Conservative 14,408 1,328 1.8%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket 3rd 12,216 Reform 13,697 1,481 1.9%
Halifax 2nd 10,255 Reform 11,767 1,512 2.0%
Oldham East and Saddleworth 2nd 10,182 Reform 11,629 1,447 2.0%
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme 3rd 11,233 Reform 12,617 1,384 2.0%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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