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VoteClimate: The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Conservative: 26% | Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 21.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.7% | Green: 8%

[Last updated: 31 December 2024]

Constituency Labour Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Worcester 1st 13,870 Conservative 12,373 1,497 2.0%
Southampton Itchen 1st 11,786 Conservative 10,423 1,363 2.0%
Bridgend 1st 12,305 Reform 10,852 1,453 2.0%
Pontypridd 1st 12,147 Reform 10,667 1,480 1.9%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire 1st 9,982 Other 8,494 1,488 1.9%
Newport West and Islwyn 1st 13,025 Reform 11,567 1,458 1.9%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor 1st 13,914 Reform 12,589 1,325 1.8%
Stevenage 1st 13,215 Conservative 11,918 1,297 1.8%
Croydon East 1st 13,878 Conservative 12,610 1,268 1.7%
High Peak 1st 17,023 Conservative 15,798 1,225 1.6%
Wrexham 1st 11,766 Conservative 10,620 1,146 1.6%
Hitchin 1st 17,340 Conservative 16,114 1,226 1.6%
Blyth and Ashington 1st 15,288 Reform 14,089 1,199 1.6%
Milton Keynes Central 1st 15,127 Conservative 13,896 1,231 1.5%
Glasgow North East 1st 12,361 SNP 11,302 1,059 1.5%
East Thanet 1st 12,686 Reform 11,602 1,084 1.4%
Hartlepool 1st 12,426 Reform 11,433 993 1.4%
Bury North 1st 14,737 Conservative 13,662 1,075 1.4%
Alyn and Deeside 1st 13,790 Reform 12,767 1,023 1.3%
Stockton North 1st 12,940 Reform 12,027 913 1.3%
Torfaen 1st 11,385 Reform 10,465 920 1.3%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare 1st 11,953 Reform 11,030 923 1.2%
Ilford South 1st 12,352 Other 11,385 967 1.2%
Rhondda and Ogmore 1st 13,070 Reform 12,187 883 1.2%
Leigh and Atherton 1st 15,203 Reform 14,347 856 1.1%
Birmingham Erdington 1st 11,103 Reform 10,275 828 1.1%
Falkirk 1st 14,457 SNP 13,685 772 1.0%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1st 15,044 SNP 14,294 750 1.0%
Bristol East 1st 16,889 Green 16,180 709 0.9%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 1st 11,613 SNP 10,969 644 0.9%
Harrow West 1st 14,939 Conservative 14,222 717 0.9%
Bangor Aberconwy 1st 10,223 Conservative 9,608 615 0.9%
Bolsover 1st 12,810 Reform 12,146 664 0.9%
Erewash 1st 12,815 Reform 12,201 614 0.9%
Wolverhampton North East 1st 10,706 Reform 10,156 550 0.8%
Telford 1st 13,718 Reform 13,164 554 0.8%
Birmingham Northfield 1st 11,097 Reform 10,544 553 0.7%
South Ribble 1st 14,855 Conservative 14,311 544 0.7%
Southport 1st 12,776 Conservative 12,243 533 0.7%
Barnsley North 1st 14,256 Reform 13,833 423 0.5%
Caerphilly 1st 10,769 Reform 10,407 362 0.5%
Bishop Auckland 1st 12,746 Reform 12,401 345 0.5%
Ashton-under-Lyne 1st 11,728 Reform 11,438 290 0.4%
Plymouth Moor View 1st 13,183 Conservative 12,907 276 0.4%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 1st 12,663 Reform 12,421 242 0.4%
Newcastle-under-Lyme 1st 11,907 Reform 11,677 230 0.3%
Bolton South and Walkden 1st 11,274 Reform 11,008 266 0.3%
Glasgow East 1st 12,268 SNP 12,053 215 0.3%
Bradford East 1st 10,443 Other 10,235 208 0.3%
Basingstoke 1st 15,678 Conservative 15,478 200 0.3%
South Shields 1st 11,289 Reform 11,115 174 0.3%
Bassetlaw 1st 13,786 Conservative 13,593 193 0.2%
Glasgow North 1st 11,563 SNP 11,403 160 0.2%
Dagenham and Rainham 1st 12,417 Reform 12,242 175 0.2%
Preston 1st 10,268 Other 10,091 177 0.2%
Rossendale and Darwen 1st 13,607 Conservative 13,490 117 0.2%
Wellingborough and Rushden 1st 13,203 Conservative 13,084 119 0.2%
Huddersfield 1st 11,161 Green 11,042 119 0.2%
Stoke-on-Trent Central 1st 11,206 Reform 11,128 78 0.1%
Glasgow South 1st 13,939 SNP 13,869 70 0.1%
Scarborough and Whitby 1st 13,217 Conservative 13,187 30 0.0%
Corby and East Northamptonshire 1st 15,738 Conservative 15,728 10 0.0%
Blackpool South 1st 12,864 Reform 12,857 7 0.0%
Bournemouth East 2nd 13,658 Conservative 13,716 58 0.1%
Oldham East and Saddleworth 2nd 10,342 Reform 10,415 73 0.1%
Crawley 2nd 12,926 Conservative 13,011 85 0.1%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch 2nd 14,692 SNP 14,786 94 0.1%
Morecambe and Lunesdale 2nd 14,612 Conservative 14,723 111 0.1%
Watford 2nd 11,539 Conservative 11,658 119 0.2%
Halifax 2nd 10,376 Reform 10,505 129 0.2%
Rushcliffe 2nd 19,008 Conservative 19,161 153 0.2%
Halesowen 3rd 11,144 Conservative 11,349 205 0.3%
Easington 2nd 12,799 Reform 13,010 211 0.3%
Barrow and Furness 2nd 13,935 Conservative 14,167 232 0.3%
Washington and Gateshead South 2nd 13,437 Reform 13,699 262 0.4%
Loughborough 2nd 12,858 Conservative 13,114 256 0.4%
Aldershot 2nd 14,730 Conservative 15,025 295 0.4%
Carlisle 2nd 13,466 Conservative 13,772 306 0.4%
Hemel Hempstead 2nd 12,469 Conservative 12,750 281 0.4%
Glasgow South West 2nd 12,279 SNP 12,565 286 0.4%
Thurrock 2nd 12,032 Reform 12,338 306 0.4%
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley 2nd 12,972 Reform 13,291 319 0.4%
Bolton West 2nd 12,878 Conservative 13,217 339 0.5%
Wycombe 2nd 11,797 Conservative 12,137 340 0.5%
Birmingham Ladywood 2nd 11,745 Other 12,137 392 0.5%
North Ayrshire and Arran 2nd 13,161 SNP 13,507 346 0.5%
Normanton and Hemsworth 2nd 13,112 Reform 13,475 363 0.5%
Derby South 2nd 10,765 Reform 11,122 357 0.5%
North Northumberland 2nd 13,161 Conservative 13,571 410 0.6%
Milton Keynes North 2nd 14,447 Conservative 14,839 392 0.6%
Heywood and Middleton North 2nd 11,386 Reform 11,803 417 0.6%
Bolton North East 2nd 11,940 Reform 12,403 463 0.6%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood 3rd 12,458 Conservative 12,888 430 0.6%
Houghton and Sunderland South 2nd 14,279 Reform 14,801 522 0.7%
Neath and Swansea East 2nd 12,583 Reform 13,112 529 0.7%
Stoke-on-Trent North 2nd 10,858 Reform 11,400 542 0.8%
Weston-super-Mare 2nd 12,083 Conservative 12,645 562 0.8%
Walsall and Bloxwich 2nd 9,137 Reform 9,730 593 0.8%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh 2nd 14,852 SNP 15,477 625 0.8%
Dover and Deal 2nd 14,079 Reform 14,729 650 0.9%
Livingston 2nd 14,487 SNP 15,194 707 0.9%
Southend East and Rochford 2nd 11,417 Conservative 12,077 660 0.9%
Sherwood Forest 3rd 13,969 Reform 14,716 747 0.9%
Ossett and Denby Dale 2nd 12,795 Conservative 13,492 697 1.0%
Penrith and Solway 2nd 14,890 Conservative 15,686 796 1.0%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife 2nd 12,886 SNP 13,612 726 1.0%
Gillingham and Rainham 3rd 11,510 Conservative 12,291 781 1.1%
Colne Valley 2nd 14,152 Conservative 14,927 775 1.1%
Spen Valley 2nd 11,934 Reform 12,772 838 1.2%
North East Somerset and Hanham 2nd 15,451 Conservative 16,415 964 1.3%
Clwyd East 2nd 13,708 Conservative 14,718 1,010 1.3%
Bradford South 2nd 8,703 Reform 9,668 965 1.4%
Sunderland Central 2nd 12,608 Reform 13,700 1,092 1.4%
Stafford 2nd 13,795 Conservative 14,820 1,025 1.5%
Northampton South 2nd 12,514 Conservative 13,592 1,078 1.5%
Burnley 2nd 9,168 Reform 10,324 1,156 1.5%
Isle of Wight West 2nd 9,813 Conservative 10,671 858 1.5%
Scunthorpe 2nd 11,510 Conservative 12,675 1,165 1.6%
Vale of Glamorgan 2nd 13,158 Conservative 14,349 1,191 1.6%
Nuneaton 3rd 11,227 Conservative 12,410 1,183 1.6%
South Derbyshire 2nd 13,151 Conservative 14,387 1,236 1.7%
Bournemouth West 2nd 10,585 Conservative 11,770 1,185 1.7%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North 3rd 7,707 Other 9,089 1,382 1.8%
Brent West 2nd 12,909 Conservative 14,338 1,429 1.8%
North Durham 2nd 12,318 Reform 13,639 1,321 1.8%
Swindon North 2nd 13,359 Conservative 14,694 1,335 1.8%
Mansfield 3rd 11,909 Conservative 13,312 1,403 1.9%
Rotherham 2nd 12,838 Reform 14,307 1,469 1.9%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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