These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Reform: 27% | Labour: 18.8% | Conservative: 18.3% | Green: 14.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.2%
[Last updated: June 2026]
| Constituency | Labour Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne North | 1st | 14,273 | Reform | 12,804 | 1,469 | 2.0% |
| West Ham and Beckton | 1st | 9,344 | Other | 7,830 | 1,514 | 1.9% |
| Brentford and Isleworth | 1st | 11,647 | Reform | 10,185 | 1,462 | 1.8% |
| Leeds South | 1st | 12,050 | Green | 10,683 | 1,367 | 1.8% |
| Leyton and Wanstead | 1st | 11,934 | Green | 10,704 | 1,230 | 1.7% |
| Stretford and Urmston | 1st | 13,226 | Reform | 11,979 | 1,247 | 1.7% |
| Manchester Central | 1st | 11,628 | Reform | 10,227 | 1,401 | 1.6% |
| Erith and Thamesmead | 1st | 13,302 | Reform | 12,008 | 1,294 | 1.6% |
| Widnes and Halewood | 1st | 14,303 | Reform | 13,167 | 1,136 | 1.6% |
| Enfield North | 1st | 12,630 | Reform | 11,418 | 1,212 | 1.5% |
| Bristol North West | 1st | 13,990 | Green | 12,920 | 1,070 | 1.4% |
| Harrow West | 1st | 11,772 | Conservative | 10,808 | 964 | 1.2% |
| Hackney North and Stoke Newington | 1st | 14,659 | Green | 13,723 | 936 | 1.2% |
| Lewisham North | 1st | 15,105 | Green | 14,236 | 869 | 1.2% |
| Chester North and Neston | 1st | 13,261 | Reform | 12,464 | 797 | 1.1% |
| Manchester Withington | 1st | 12,798 | Green | 12,015 | 783 | 1.1% |
| Stroud | 1st | 15,114 | Reform | 14,253 | 861 | 1.1% |
| Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | 1st | 14,563 | Reform | 13,785 | 778 | 1.1% |
| Cambridge | 1st | 13,030 | Green | 12,278 | 752 | 1.1% |
| Poplar and Limehouse | 1st | 10,414 | Green | 9,562 | 852 | 1.0% |
| Salford | 1st | 12,354 | Reform | 11,744 | 610 | 0.7% |
| Bedford | 1st | 10,706 | Reform | 10,258 | 448 | 0.6% |
| Gorton and Denton | 1st | 10,724 | Reform | 10,253 | 471 | 0.6% |
| Leeds North West | 1st | 13,387 | Reform | 12,983 | 404 | 0.6% |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | 1st | 9,475 | Liberal Democrat | 9,085 | 390 | 0.6% |
| York Outer | 1st | 13,673 | Reform | 13,252 | 421 | 0.6% |
| Wythenshawe and Sale East | 1st | 12,158 | Reform | 11,732 | 426 | 0.5% |
| Macclesfield | 1st | 14,753 | Reform | 14,400 | 353 | 0.5% |
| Rushcliffe | 1st | 14,954 | Reform | 14,643 | 311 | 0.4% |
| Hackney South and Shoreditch | 1st | 14,738 | Green | 14,433 | 305 | 0.4% |
| Birkenhead | 1st | 12,984 | Green | 12,708 | 276 | 0.4% |
| Coventry South | 1st | 12,065 | Reform | 11,960 | 105 | 0.1% |
| Swindon South | 1st | 12,966 | Reform | 12,884 | 82 | 0.1% |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | 1st | 9,658 | Reform | 9,602 | 56 | 0.1% |
| Exeter | 1st | 10,438 | Reform | 10,391 | 47 | 0.1% |
| Wirral West | 1st | 13,683 | Reform | 13,666 | 17 | 0.0% |
| Norwich South | 1st | 12,342 | Green | 12,341 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Tynemouth | 2nd | 14,503 | Reform | 14,547 | 44 | 0.1% |
| Stockport | 2nd | 12,627 | Reform | 12,683 | 56 | 0.1% |
| Portsmouth South | 2nd | 10,942 | Reform | 11,203 | 261 | 0.4% |
| Stratford and Bow | 2nd | 10,699 | Green | 11,121 | 422 | 0.5% |
| Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | 4th | 6,635 | Reform | 7,083 | 448 | 0.6% |
| Filton and Bradley Stoke | 2nd | 13,454 | Reform | 14,069 | 615 | 0.8% |
| Nottingham South | 2nd | 9,040 | Reform | 9,590 | 550 | 0.9% |
| Hitchin | 2nd | 13,565 | Reform | 14,307 | 742 | 1.0% |
| Brent West | 2nd | 10,198 | Conservative | 10,984 | 786 | 1.0% |
| Bristol North East | 3rd | 10,846 | Green | 11,583 | 737 | 1.1% |
| Leeds West and Pudsey | 2nd | 11,115 | Reform | 11,875 | 760 | 1.1% |
| Runcorn and Helsby | 2nd | 13,284 | Reform | 14,060 | 776 | 1.1% |
| Barking | 2nd | 9,181 | Reform | 10,059 | 878 | 1.1% |
| High Peak | 2nd | 13,388 | Reform | 14,228 | 840 | 1.1% |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 2nd | 3,650 | SNP | 3,893 | 243 | 1.1% |
| Smethwick | 2nd | 9,754 | Reform | 10,637 | 883 | 1.2% |
| Manchester Rusholme | 2nd | 8,711 | Green | 9,612 | 901 | 1.2% |
| Wolverhampton West | 2nd | 11,352 | Reform | 12,373 | 1,021 | 1.3% |
| Basingstoke | 2nd | 12,258 | Reform | 13,306 | 1,048 | 1.3% |
| Bradford West | 3rd | 6,034 | Reform | 7,122 | 1,088 | 1.4% |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | 2nd | 9,947 | Reform | 11,021 | 1,074 | 1.4% |
| Lothian East | 2nd | 11,975 | SNP | 13,050 | 1,075 | 1.4% |
| Milton Keynes Central | 2nd | 11,751 | Reform | 12,966 | 1,215 | 1.5% |
| Truro and Falmouth | 2nd | 11,982 | Reform | 13,099 | 1,117 | 1.5% |
| Finchley and Golders Green | 2nd | 13,128 | Conservative | 14,323 | 1,195 | 1.5% |
| Feltham and Heston | 2nd | 9,244 | Reform | 10,450 | 1,206 | 1.6% |
| Southampton Test | 2nd | 9,170 | Reform | 10,229 | 1,059 | 1.6% |
| Croydon East | 2nd | 10,762 | Reform | 12,015 | 1,253 | 1.6% |
| Cities of London and Westminster | 2nd | 8,895 | Conservative | 10,106 | 1,211 | 1.7% |
| Altrincham and Sale West | 2nd | 12,154 | Conservative | 13,409 | 1,255 | 1.7% |
| East Worthing and Shoreham | 2nd | 12,982 | Reform | 14,264 | 1,282 | 1.7% |
| West Lancashire | 2nd | 13,202 | Reform | 14,538 | 1,336 | 1.8% |
| Leeds Central and Headingley | 2nd | 9,089 | Green | 10,374 | 1,285 | 1.8% |
| Coventry East | 2nd | 10,739 | Reform | 12,132 | 1,393 | 1.8% |
| Kensington and Bayswater | 2nd | 10,031 | Conservative | 11,485 | 1,454 | 1.9% |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | 2nd | 12,169 | Reform | 13,619 | 1,450 | 1.9% |
| Blackley and Middleton South | 2nd | 9,883 | Reform | 11,292 | 1,409 | 1.9% |
| Warrington South | 2nd | 13,662 | Reform | 15,198 | 1,536 | 2.0% |
| Shrewsbury | 2nd | 13,324 | Reform | 14,828 | 1,504 | 2.0% |
See also: Electoral Analysis