These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 34.6% | Conservative: 24.4% | Reform: 14.7% | Liberal Democrat: 12.6% | Green: 6.9%
[Last updated: 11 August 2024]
| Constituency | Labour Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1st | 13,027 | Other | 11,587 | 1,440 | 2.0% |
| Reading West and Mid Berkshire | 1st | 16,273 | Conservative | 14,912 | 1,361 | 2.0% |
| Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | 1st | 16,745 | Conservative | 15,293 | 1,452 | 1.9% |
| Tamworth | 1st | 15,338 | Conservative | 13,956 | 1,382 | 1.8% |
| Stirling and Strathallan | 1st | 16,856 | SNP | 15,462 | 1,394 | 1.8% |
| Clwyd North | 1st | 14,794 | Conservative | 13,598 | 1,196 | 1.6% |
| Dartford | 1st | 15,392 | Conservative | 14,200 | 1,192 | 1.6% |
| Rother Valley | 1st | 16,023 | Conservative | 15,025 | 998 | 1.4% |
| Suffolk Coastal | 1st | 15,672 | Conservative | 14,602 | 1,070 | 1.4% |
| South Dorset | 1st | 15,659 | Conservative | 14,611 | 1,048 | 1.4% |
| North West Leicestershire | 1st | 16,871 | Conservative | 15,859 | 1,012 | 1.3% |
| Earley and Woodley | 1st | 18,209 | Conservative | 17,361 | 848 | 1.2% |
| Pendle and Clitheroe | 1st | 16,129 | Conservative | 15,227 | 902 | 1.1% |
| Redditch | 1st | 14,810 | Conservative | 14,021 | 789 | 1.1% |
| Portsmouth North | 1st | 14,495 | Conservative | 13,715 | 780 | 1.1% |
| Bracknell | 1st | 14,783 | Conservative | 13,999 | 784 | 1.1% |
| Lichfield | 1st | 17,232 | Conservative | 16,422 | 810 | 1.1% |
| Ribble Valley | 1st | 18,177 | Conservative | 17,321 | 856 | 1.1% |
| Slough | 1st | 14,666 | Other | 13,870 | 796 | 1.0% |
| Birmingham Yardley | 1st | 11,275 | Other | 10,582 | 693 | 0.9% |
| Bradford West | 1st | 11,724 | Independent | 11,017 | 707 | 0.9% |
| Stoke-on-Trent South | 1st | 14,221 | Conservative | 13,594 | 627 | 0.9% |
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | 1st | 14,976 | Conservative | 14,309 | 667 | 0.9% |
| North Somerset | 1st | 19,138 | Conservative | 18,499 | 639 | 0.9% |
| South West Norfolk | 1st | 11,847 | Conservative | 11,217 | 630 | 0.8% |
| Aylesbury | 1st | 15,081 | Conservative | 14,451 | 630 | 0.8% |
| Uxbridge and South Ruislip | 1st | 16,599 | Conservative | 16,012 | 587 | 0.8% |
| Ilford North | 1st | 15,647 | Other | 15,119 | 528 | 0.7% |
| Derbyshire Dales | 1st | 17,759 | Conservative | 17,409 | 350 | 0.5% |
| Sittingbourne and Sheppey | 1st | 11,919 | Conservative | 11,564 | 355 | 0.4% |
| Forest of Dean | 1st | 16,373 | Conservative | 16,095 | 278 | 0.4% |
| Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 1st | 16,468 | Conservative | 16,254 | 214 | 0.3% |
| Bethnal Green and Stepney | 1st | 15,896 | Other | 15,699 | 197 | 0.2% |
| Chelsea and Fulham | 1st | 18,556 | Conservative | 18,404 | 152 | 0.2% |
| Peterborough | 1st | 13,418 | Conservative | 13,300 | 118 | 0.2% |
| North West Cambridgeshire | 1st | 14,785 | Conservative | 14,746 | 39 | 0.1% |
| Poole | 1st | 14,168 | Conservative | 14,150 | 18 | 0.0% |
| Hendon | 1st | 15,855 | Conservative | 15,840 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Basildon and Billericay | 2nd | 12,885 | Conservative | 12,905 | 20 | 0.0% |
| Central Devon | 2nd | 16,770 | Conservative | 16,831 | 61 | 0.1% |
| Havant | 2nd | 12,894 | Conservative | 12,986 | 92 | 0.1% |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | 2nd | 12,080 | Reform | 12,178 | 98 | 0.1% |
| Exmouth and Exeter East | 2nd | 14,607 | Conservative | 14,728 | 121 | 0.2% |
| Beverley and Holderness | 2nd | 15,377 | Conservative | 15,501 | 124 | 0.2% |
| Bromley and Biggin Hill | 2nd | 15,627 | Conservative | 15,929 | 302 | 0.4% |
| Fylde | 2nd | 15,356 | Conservative | 15,917 | 561 | 0.7% |
| Dundee Central | 2nd | 14,869 | SNP | 15,544 | 675 | 0.9% |
| Broadland and Fakenham | 2nd | 15,603 | Conservative | 16,322 | 719 | 0.9% |
| Wyre Forest | 2nd | 13,677 | Conservative | 14,489 | 812 | 1.1% |
| The Wrekin | 2nd | 15,437 | Conservative | 16,320 | 883 | 1.1% |
| Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | 2nd | 14,722 | SNP | 15,581 | 859 | 1.1% |
| Harwich and North Essex | 2nd | 15,360 | Conservative | 16,522 | 1,162 | 1.5% |
| Tatton | 2nd | 18,820 | Conservative | 19,956 | 1,136 | 1.5% |
| Staffordshire Moorlands | 2nd | 14,135 | Conservative | 15,310 | 1,175 | 1.7% |
| Mid Bedfordshire | 2nd | 15,591 | Conservative | 16,912 | 1,321 | 1.8% |
| Hereford and South Herefordshire | 2nd | 13,592 | Conservative | 14,871 | 1,279 | 1.8% |
| Bridgwater | 2nd | 10,932 | Conservative | 12,281 | 1,349 | 1.9% |
| Huntingdon | 2nd | 16,758 | Conservative | 18,257 | 1,499 | 1.9% |
| Birmingham Perry Barr | 2nd | 12,796 | Other | 14,265 | 1,469 | 1.9% |
| Great Yarmouth | 2nd | 12,959 | Reform | 14,385 | 1,426 | 1.9% |
| Faversham and Mid Kent | 2nd | 13,347 | Conservative | 14,816 | 1,469 | 2.0% |
See also: Electoral Analysis