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VoteClimate: The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Labour Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Stourbridge 1st 22,831 Conservative 21,489 1,342 1.7%
Tatton 1st 20,503 Conservative 19,245 1,258 1.6%
Harlow 1st 21,418 Conservative 20,193 1,225 1.7%
Ribble Valley 1st 20,666 Conservative 19,493 1,173 1.6%
Gillingham and Rainham 1st 18,368 Conservative 17,218 1,150 1.7%
Congleton 1st 21,504 Conservative 20,362 1,142 1.5%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr 1st 18,460 Conservative 17,352 1,108 1.6%
Glasgow South 1st 17,874 SNP 16,822 1,052 1.6%
Rochester and Strood 1st 20,301 Conservative 19,440 861 1.1%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West 1st 19,920 SNP 19,240 680 1.0%
Isle of Wight West 1st 14,393 Conservative 13,800 593 1.0%
Isle of Wight East 1st 14,076 Conservative 13,497 579 1.0%
Portsmouth North 1st 19,355 Conservative 18,833 522 0.7%
North East Hertfordshire 1st 21,173 Conservative 20,680 493 0.6%
Wellingborough and Rushden 1st 20,050 Conservative 19,611 439 0.6%
Hertford and Stortford 1st 21,079 Conservative 20,675 404 0.5%
Ceredigion Preseli 1st 16,586 Plaid Cymru 16,185 401 0.5%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley 1st 17,703 SNP 17,323 380 0.5%
Glasgow West 1st 15,307 SNP 14,979 328 0.5%
Dartford 1st 20,673 Conservative 20,374 299 0.4%
Aylesbury 1st 17,529 Conservative 17,284 245 0.3%
Lowestoft 1st 18,499 Conservative 18,254 245 0.3%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard 1st 19,491 Conservative 19,367 124 0.2%
Fylde 1st 21,582 Conservative 21,465 117 0.2%
Selby 1st 19,143 Conservative 19,052 91 0.1%
West Dunbartonshire 1st 20,874 SNP 20,832 42 0.1%
South Dorset 2nd 19,831 Conservative 19,880 49 0.1%
South Derbyshire 2nd 18,534 Conservative 18,659 125 0.2%
Dunfermline and Dollar 2nd 16,815 SNP 17,019 204 0.3%
Derbyshire Dales 2nd 21,397 Conservative 21,636 239 0.3%
Amber Valley 2nd 19,177 Conservative 19,515 338 0.5%
Bicester and Woodstock 2nd 17,389 Conservative 17,831 442 0.6%
South Norfolk 2nd 16,778 Conservative 17,226 448 0.7%
Edinburgh South West 2nd 18,011 SNP 18,517 506 0.7%
Wetherby and Easingwold 2nd 24,454 Conservative 24,972 518 0.6%
Redditch 2nd 18,987 Conservative 19,578 591 0.9%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 3rd 14,690 Conservative 15,293 603 0.8%
Folkestone and Hythe 2nd 18,269 Conservative 18,921 652 0.9%
Romford 2nd 19,354 Conservative 20,006 652 0.9%
Staffordshire Moorlands 2nd 20,874 Conservative 21,629 755 1.0%
North Bedfordshire 2nd 22,194 Conservative 22,959 765 0.9%
Hitchin 2nd 16,243 Conservative 17,074 831 1.2%
Aldershot 2nd 18,940 Conservative 19,812 872 1.1%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth 2nd 19,571 Conservative 20,564 993 1.4%
Suffolk Coastal 2nd 18,635 Conservative 19,632 997 1.3%
Sutton Coldfield 2nd 19,169 Conservative 20,167 998 1.3%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North 2nd 18,607 SNP 19,630 1,023 1.4%
Huntingdon 2nd 23,427 Conservative 24,486 1,059 1.1%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife 2nd 16,582 SNP 17,659 1,077 1.5%
North West Leicestershire 2nd 20,775 Conservative 21,887 1,112 1.5%
Woking 3rd 14,884 Conservative 16,020 1,136 1.6%
Harwich and North Essex 2nd 19,050 Conservative 20,188 1,138 1.6%
Mid Bedfordshire 2nd 17,857 Conservative 19,051 1,194 1.7%
The Wrekin 2nd 20,633 Conservative 21,842 1,209 1.6%
South West Hertfordshire 2nd 14,639 Conservative 15,879 1,240 1.8%
Reigate 2nd 17,909 Conservative 19,220 1,311 1.7%
Beverley and Holderness 2nd 18,589 Conservative 19,917 1,328 1.9%
Waveney Valley 2nd 22,722 Conservative 24,056 1,334 1.5%
Newark 2nd 21,508 Conservative 22,959 1,451 1.8%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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