These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%
[Last updated: 24 June 2024]
| Constituency | Labour Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouthshire | 1st | 20,095 | Conservative | 18,618 | 1,477 | 2.0% |
| North Northumberland | 1st | 19,708 | Conservative | 18,319 | 1,389 | 1.9% |
| Beverley and Holderness | 1st | 16,901 | Conservative | 15,548 | 1,353 | 1.9% |
| West Suffolk | 1st | 17,777 | Conservative | 16,430 | 1,347 | 1.7% |
| Faversham and Mid Kent | 1st | 17,353 | Conservative | 16,073 | 1,280 | 1.7% |
| Melton and Syston | 1st | 18,916 | Conservative | 17,663 | 1,253 | 1.7% |
| Bexhill and Battle | 1st | 17,377 | Conservative | 16,144 | 1,233 | 1.7% |
| Basildon and Billericay | 1st | 16,009 | Conservative | 14,783 | 1,226 | 1.6% |
| Poole | 1st | 15,866 | Conservative | 14,712 | 1,154 | 1.6% |
| The Wrekin | 1st | 18,518 | Conservative | 17,399 | 1,119 | 1.4% |
| South Dorset | 1st | 17,002 | Conservative | 15,894 | 1,108 | 1.5% |
| Bromley and Biggin Hill | 1st | 20,313 | Conservative | 19,241 | 1,072 | 1.5% |
| Sheffield Hallam | 1st | 23,209 | Liberal Democrat | 22,174 | 1,035 | 1.4% |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 1st | 19,718 | SNP | 18,819 | 899 | 1.3% |
| Wyre Forest | 1st | 18,279 | Conservative | 17,388 | 891 | 1.2% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 1st | 24,113 | SNP | 23,264 | 849 | 1.1% |
| South West Norfolk | 1st | 15,366 | Conservative | 14,689 | 677 | 0.9% |
| Finchley and Golders Green | 1st | 18,003 | Conservative | 17,450 | 553 | 0.7% |
| South West Wiltshire | 1st | 14,814 | Conservative | 14,267 | 547 | 0.7% |
| Broxbourne | 1st | 17,129 | Conservative | 16,718 | 411 | 0.5% |
| Suffolk Coastal | 1st | 17,823 | Conservative | 17,575 | 248 | 0.3% |
| Romford | 1st | 17,381 | Conservative | 17,165 | 216 | 0.3% |
| Tatton | 1st | 19,886 | Conservative | 19,679 | 207 | 0.3% |
| Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | 1st | 17,677 | Conservative | 17,619 | 58 | 0.1% |
| Hereford and South Herefordshire | 1st | 15,986 | Conservative | 15,970 | 16 | 0.0% |
| Lichfield | 1st | 20,417 | Conservative | 20,414 | 3 | 0.0% |
| Central Ayrshire | 2nd | 16,895 | SNP | 17,048 | 153 | 0.2% |
| Windsor | 2nd | 15,608 | Conservative | 15,783 | 175 | 0.2% |
| Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | 2nd | 16,553 | Conservative | 16,823 | 270 | 0.4% |
| Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | 2nd | 20,137 | Conservative | 20,482 | 345 | 0.5% |
| Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | 2nd | 18,651 | Conservative | 19,042 | 391 | 0.5% |
| Chester South and Eddisbury | 2nd | 17,517 | Conservative | 17,939 | 422 | 0.6% |
| Solihull West and Shirley | 2nd | 15,981 | Conservative | 16,555 | 574 | 0.8% |
| North West Norfolk | 2nd | 15,995 | Conservative | 16,598 | 603 | 0.8% |
| Skipton and Ripon | 2nd | 18,901 | Conservative | 19,584 | 683 | 0.9% |
| Bridgwater | 2nd | 13,715 | Conservative | 14,516 | 801 | 1.1% |
| Braintree | 2nd | 17,585 | Conservative | 18,400 | 815 | 1.0% |
| Fylde | 2nd | 18,692 | Conservative | 19,519 | 827 | 1.1% |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 2nd | 14,502 | SNP | 15,399 | 897 | 1.3% |
| Goole and Pocklington | 2nd | 21,479 | Conservative | 22,420 | 941 | 1.2% |
| Bridlington and The Wolds | 2nd | 14,246 | Conservative | 15,280 | 1,034 | 1.4% |
| Havant | 2nd | 14,428 | Conservative | 15,471 | 1,043 | 1.4% |
| Ashfield | 2nd | 10,979 | Reform | 12,071 | 1,092 | 1.6% |
| Grantham and Bourne | 2nd | 17,248 | Conservative | 18,440 | 1,192 | 1.6% |
| South West Hertfordshire | 2nd | 15,252 | Conservative | 16,485 | 1,233 | 1.7% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 2nd | 18,486 | SNP | 19,876 | 1,390 | 1.9% |
| Old Bexley and Sidcup | 2nd | 17,203 | Conservative | 18,597 | 1,394 | 1.9% |
| North Bedfordshire | 2nd | 19,890 | Conservative | 21,291 | 1,401 | 1.8% |
| Sutton Coldfield | 2nd | 18,790 | Conservative | 20,242 | 1,452 | 2.0% |
| Dundee Central | 2nd | 19,986 | SNP | 21,461 | 1,475 | 2.0% |
See also: Electoral Analysis