These are Plaid Cymru's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Plaid Cymru should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where Plaid Cymru are predicted to be within 10% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 25% | Conservative: 22% | Liberal Democrat: 13% | Green: 8.8%
[Last updated: 17 February 2025]
| Constituency | Plaid Cymru Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerfyrddin | 1st | 15,520 | Reform | 10,908 | 4,612 | 6.2% |
| Ynys Mon | 1st | 10,590 | Conservative | 8,533 | 2,057 | 3.9% |
| Bangor Aberconwy | 3rd | 9,112 | Reform | 10,167 | 1,055 | 1.5% |
| Cardiff West | 3rd | 9,423 | Labour | 11,893 | 2,470 | 3.3% |
| Caerphilly | 3rd | 8,119 | Reform | 11,478 | 3,359 | 4.6% |
| Llanelli | 2nd | 9,511 | Reform | 14,787 | 5,276 | 7.4% |
| Pontypridd | 3rd | 5,275 | Labour | 11,835 | 6,560 | 8.6% |
| Swansea West | 4th | 4,105 | Labour | 10,788 | 6,683 | 9.0% |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | 3rd | 4,768 | Reform | 11,963 | 7,195 | 9.7% |
| Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | 5th | 5,667 | Reform | 12,890 | 7,223 | 9.8% |
See also: Electoral Analysis