These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 36.9% | Labour: 30.9% | Conservative: 15.9% | Liberal Democrat: 7.1% | Green: 4.5% | Reform/Brexit: 2.2%
[Last updated: September 2023]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 1st | 21,030 | Labour | 13,932 | 7,098 | 9.3% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 18,696 | Conservative | 12,524 | 6,172 | 9.2% |
| Central Ayrshire | 1st | 20,183 | Labour | 14,094 | 6,089 | 8.1% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 1st | 22,795 | Labour | 17,027 | 5,768 | 7.2% |
| Mid Dunbartonshire | 1st | 20,425 | Labour | 15,194 | 5,231 | 6.9% |
| Dundee Central | 1st | 23,189 | Labour | 17,984 | 5,205 | 6.7% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 1st | 17,631 | Liberal Democrat | 12,473 | 5,158 | 7.1% |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 1st | 23,613 | Conservative | 18,706 | 4,907 | 5.9% |
| Edinburgh West | 1st | 20,929 | Labour | 16,366 | 4,563 | 5.3% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 1st | 15,036 | Labour | 10,806 | 4,230 | 7.3% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 1st | 18,840 | Conservative | 15,020 | 3,820 | 5.6% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 1st | 20,627 | Conservative | 17,480 | 3,147 | 4.0% |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 1st | 19,152 | Labour | 16,308 | 2,844 | 3.7% |
| North East Fife | 1st | 18,851 | Liberal Democrat | 16,371 | 2,480 | 3.6% |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 1st | 17,098 | Conservative | 14,883 | 2,215 | 3.3% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 19,927 | Conservative | 17,774 | 2,153 | 2.8% |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 1st | 19,577 | Labour | 17,443 | 2,134 | 3.2% |
| Livingston | 1st | 16,857 | Labour | 14,950 | 1,907 | 2.9% |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 1st | 20,031 | Labour | 18,452 | 1,579 | 2.1% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | 1st | 18,453 | Labour | 16,910 | 1,543 | 2.4% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 1st | 16,253 | Labour | 14,922 | 1,331 | 2.1% |
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | 1st | 17,659 | Labour | 16,582 | 1,077 | 1.5% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | 1st | 19,630 | Labour | 18,607 | 1,023 | 1.4% |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 1st | 20,285 | Conservative | 19,551 | 734 | 1.0% |
| Edinburgh South West | 1st | 18,517 | Labour | 18,011 | 506 | 0.7% |
| Dunfermline and Dollar | 1st | 17,019 | Labour | 16,815 | 204 | 0.3% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 2nd | 20,832 | Labour | 20,874 | 42 | 0.1% |
| Glasgow West | 2nd | 14,979 | Labour | 15,307 | 328 | 0.5% |
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | 2nd | 17,323 | Labour | 17,703 | 380 | 0.5% |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 2nd | 5,642 | Labour | 6,189 | 547 | 2.6% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 2nd | 19,240 | Labour | 19,920 | 680 | 1.0% |
| Glasgow South | 2nd | 16,822 | Labour | 17,874 | 1,052 | 1.6% |
| Orkney and Shetland | 2nd | 6,950 | Liberal Democrat | 8,354 | 1,404 | 4.1% |
| Glasgow East | 2nd | 13,039 | Labour | 14,987 | 1,948 | 3.3% |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 2nd | 15,708 | Labour | 17,784 | 2,076 | 3.2% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 2nd | 22,220 | Labour | 24,553 | 2,333 | 2.6% |
| Glasgow North | 2nd | 16,042 | Labour | 18,491 | 2,449 | 3.5% |
| Glasgow South West | 2nd | 16,472 | Labour | 19,060 | 2,588 | 3.5% |
| Airdrie and Shotts | 2nd | 14,864 | Labour | 17,731 | 2,867 | 4.5% |
See also: Electoral Analysis