These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): Labour: 38% | SNP: 30% | Conservative: 14% | Liberal Democrat: 8% | Green: 5% | Reform: 3%
[Last updated: 24 June 2024]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | 1st | 19,333 | Labour | 12,885 | 6,448 | 8.5% |
| Aberdeen South | 1st | 20,586 | Labour | 14,414 | 6,172 | 8.0% |
| Aberdeen North | 1st | 16,000 | Labour | 11,204 | 4,796 | 6.3% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 17,105 | Conservative | 12,594 | 4,511 | 5.8% |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 1st | 19,713 | Labour | 15,304 | 4,409 | 6.1% |
| Falkirk | 1st | 20,388 | Labour | 16,465 | 3,923 | 5.3% |
| Edinburgh South West | 1st | 20,827 | Labour | 17,538 | 3,289 | 4.5% |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 1st | 20,658 | Conservative | 17,806 | 2,852 | 3.9% |
| East Renfrewshire | 1st | 20,100 | Labour | 18,423 | 1,677 | 2.2% |
| Dundee Central | 1st | 21,461 | Labour | 19,986 | 1,475 | 2.0% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 1st | 13,051 | Labour | 11,611 | 1,440 | 2.0% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 1st | 19,876 | Labour | 18,486 | 1,390 | 1.9% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 1st | 17,263 | Conservative | 16,295 | 968 | 1.2% |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 1st | 15,399 | Labour | 14,502 | 897 | 1.3% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 18,173 | Conservative | 17,505 | 668 | 1.0% |
| Central Ayrshire | 1st | 17,048 | Labour | 16,895 | 153 | 0.2% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 2nd | 15,906 | Conservative | 16,080 | 174 | 0.2% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 2nd | 23,264 | Labour | 24,113 | 849 | 1.1% |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 2nd | 18,819 | Labour | 19,718 | 899 | 1.3% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 2nd | 16,805 | Labour | 18,542 | 1,737 | 2.2% |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 2nd | 14,392 | Conservative | 16,281 | 1,889 | 2.6% |
| Livingston | 2nd | 14,794 | Labour | 16,943 | 2,149 | 2.8% |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 2nd | 16,747 | Labour | 19,350 | 2,603 | 3.6% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 2nd | 17,324 | Labour | 19,990 | 2,666 | 3.8% |
| Glasgow South | 2nd | 16,308 | Labour | 19,412 | 3,104 | 4.4% |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 2nd | 18,158 | Labour | 21,425 | 3,267 | 4.3% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | 2nd | 15,594 | Labour | 18,865 | 3,271 | 4.6% |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 2nd | 16,577 | Conservative | 19,964 | 3,387 | 4.4% |
| Glasgow West | 2nd | 13,332 | Labour | 16,726 | 3,394 | 4.9% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 2nd | 14,805 | Liberal Democrat | 18,362 | 3,557 | 4.8% |
See also: Electoral Analysis