These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 38% | Reform: 19% | Labour: 17% | Liberal Democrat: 12% | Conservative: 10% | Green: 3%
[Last updated: 17 February 2025]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh South West | 1st | 16,613 | Labour | 9,275 | 7,338 | 9.9% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 1st | 16,490 | Labour | 9,523 | 6,967 | 9.9% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 1st | 18,083 | Labour | 10,356 | 7,727 | 9.9% |
| East Renfrewshire | 1st | 18,394 | Labour | 11,084 | 7,310 | 9.8% |
| Coatbridge and Bellshill | 1st | 16,895 | Labour | 9,782 | 7,113 | 9.8% |
| Glasgow West | 1st | 16,138 | Labour | 9,418 | 6,720 | 9.7% |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 1st | 15,661 | Reform | 9,005 | 6,656 | 9.4% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 17,624 | Conservative | 10,368 | 7,256 | 9.4% |
| Midlothian | 1st | 17,641 | Labour | 10,832 | 6,809 | 9.3% |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 1st | 18,348 | Labour | 11,543 | 6,805 | 8.9% |
| Glasgow North East | 1st | 14,278 | Labour | 7,833 | 6,445 | 8.9% |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 1st | 16,034 | Labour | 9,734 | 6,300 | 8.8% |
| Central Ayrshire | 1st | 15,154 | Labour | 9,082 | 6,072 | 8.7% |
| Dunfermline and Dollar | 1st | 16,308 | Labour | 10,201 | 6,107 | 8.4% |
| Rutherglen | 1st | 16,990 | Labour | 10,912 | 6,078 | 8.4% |
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 1st | 15,291 | Labour | 9,361 | 5,930 | 8.3% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 14,999 | Reform | 9,217 | 5,782 | 8.3% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 1st | 14,321 | Reform | 8,619 | 5,702 | 8.1% |
| Airdrie and Shotts | 1st | 15,092 | Labour | 9,620 | 5,472 | 7.8% |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 1st | 15,501 | Labour | 9,963 | 5,538 | 7.7% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 1st | 15,530 | Conservative | 10,342 | 5,188 | 7.5% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 1st | 15,920 | Conservative | 10,429 | 5,491 | 7.0% |
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | 1st | 15,855 | Labour | 10,761 | 5,094 | 6.7% |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 1st | 16,646 | Conservative | 12,759 | 3,887 | 5.3% |
| Lothian East | 1st | 15,152 | Labour | 12,158 | 2,994 | 4.0% |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 1st | 4,156 | Labour | 3,401 | 755 | 3.5% |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 1st | 13,945 | Conservative | 11,522 | 2,423 | 3.4% |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 1st | 15,087 | Conservative | 14,014 | 1,073 | 1.4% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 1st | 17,466 | Liberal Democrat | 16,956 | 510 | 0.7% |
| Edinburgh South | 2nd | 12,653 | Labour | 13,267 | 614 | 0.9% |
See also: Electoral Analysis