VoteClimate: Scottish National Party Key Battleground Seats

Scottish National Party Key Battleground Seats

These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (Sc): Labour: 38% | SNP: 30% | Conservative: 14% | Liberal Democrat: 8% | Green: 5% | Reform: 3%

[Last updated: 24 June 2024]

Constituency SNP Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber 1st 19,323 Labour 12,120 7,203 10.0%
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry 1st 19,333 Labour 12,885 6,448 9.4%
Aberdeen South 1st 20,586 Labour 14,414 6,172 7.4%
Aberdeen North 1st 16,000 Labour 11,204 4,796 7.6%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey 1st 17,105 Conservative 12,594 4,511 6.7%
North Ayrshire and Arran 1st 19,713 Labour 15,304 4,409 5.8%
Falkirk 1st 20,388 Labour 16,465 3,923 5.0%
Edinburgh South West 1st 20,827 Labour 17,538 3,289 4.4%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 1st 20,658 Conservative 17,806 2,852 3.5%
East Renfrewshire 1st 20,100 Labour 18,423 1,677 2.3%
Dundee Central 1st 21,461 Labour 19,986 1,475 1.9%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 1st 13,051 Labour 11,611 1,440 2.5%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1st 19,876 Labour 18,486 1,390 1.7%
Dumfries and Galloway 1st 17,263 Conservative 16,295 968 1.2%
Alloa and Grangemouth 1st 15,399 Labour 14,502 897 1.5%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East 1st 18,173 Conservative 17,505 668 0.9%
Central Ayrshire 1st 17,048 Labour 16,895 153 0.2%
Gordon and Buchan 2nd 15,906 Conservative 16,080 174 0.3%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh 2nd 23,264 Labour 24,113 849 1.0%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch 2nd 18,819 Labour 19,718 899 1.3%
Edinburgh North and Leith 2nd 16,805 Labour 18,542 1,737 2.7%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2nd 14,392 Conservative 16,281 1,889 2.8%
Livingston 2nd 14,794 Labour 16,943 2,149 3.3%
Bathgate and Linlithgow 2nd 16,747 Labour 19,350 2,603 3.4%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West 2nd 17,324 Labour 19,990 2,666 3.8%
Glasgow South 2nd 16,308 Labour 19,412 3,104 4.7%
East Kilbride and Strathaven 2nd 18,158 Labour 21,425 3,267 4.4%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2nd 16,577 Conservative 19,964 3,387 4.4%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 2nd 14,805 Liberal Democrat 18,362 3,557 4.9%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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