These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): Labour: 35.3% | SNP: 30% | Conservative: 12.7% | Liberal Democrat: 9.7% | Reform: 7% | Green: 3.8%
[Last updated: 11 August 2024]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | 1st | 15,582 | Conservative | 9,350 | 6,232 | 8.7% |
| Angus and Perthshire Glens | 1st | 19,142 | Conservative | 14,272 | 4,870 | 6.4% |
| Perth and Kinross-shire | 1st | 18,928 | Conservative | 14,801 | 4,127 | 5.3% |
| Aberdeen South | 1st | 15,213 | Labour | 11,455 | 3,758 | 4.9% |
| Aberdeen North | 1st | 14,533 | Labour | 12,773 | 1,760 | 2.3% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 13,455 | Conservative | 12,513 | 942 | 1.3% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 14,961 | Conservative | 13,960 | 1,001 | 1.3% |
| Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | 1st | 15,581 | Labour | 14,722 | 859 | 1.1% |
| Dundee Central | 1st | 15,544 | Labour | 14,869 | 675 | 0.9% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 2nd | 12,597 | Conservative | 13,527 | 930 | 1.2% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 2nd | 13,540 | Conservative | 14,418 | 878 | 1.3% |
| Stirling and Strathallan | 2nd | 15,462 | Labour | 16,856 | 1,394 | 1.8% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 2nd | 15,999 | Liberal Democrat | 18,159 | 2,160 | 2.8% |
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | 2nd | 13,040 | Labour | 15,994 | 2,954 | 4.2% |
| Livingston | 2nd | 14,796 | Labour | 18,324 | 3,528 | 4.5% |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 2nd | 13,987 | Conservative | 17,428 | 3,441 | 4.7% |
| Glasgow South West | 2nd | 12,267 | Labour | 15,552 | 3,285 | 4.8% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 2nd | 15,075 | Labour | 18,790 | 3,715 | 4.9% |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 2nd | 13,270 | Labour | 16,821 | 3,551 | 4.9% |
See also: Electoral Analysis