These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 31% | Labour: 28% | Conservative: 15% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 6% | Green: 5%
[Last updated: 31 December 2024]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | 1st | 16,182 | Conservative | 10,480 | 5,702 | 7.9% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 1st | 17,650 | Liberal Democrat | 12,029 | 5,621 | 7.2% |
| Aberdeen North | 1st | 14,669 | Labour | 9,939 | 4,730 | 6.2% |
| Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | 1st | 15,948 | Labour | 11,624 | 4,324 | 5.7% |
| Dundee Central | 1st | 16,098 | Labour | 11,917 | 4,181 | 5.6% |
| Angus and Perthshire Glens | 1st | 18,888 | Conservative | 14,792 | 4,096 | 5.3% |
| Perth and Kinross-shire | 1st | 18,898 | Conservative | 15,517 | 3,381 | 4.4% |
| Aberdeen South | 1st | 15,216 | Conservative | 12,003 | 3,213 | 4.2% |
| Stirling and Strathallan | 1st | 15,715 | Labour | 13,165 | 2,550 | 3.3% |
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | 1st | 13,612 | Labour | 12,886 | 726 | 1.0% |
| Livingston | 1st | 15,194 | Labour | 14,487 | 707 | 0.9% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 1st | 15,477 | Labour | 14,852 | 625 | 0.8% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 13,251 | Conservative | 12,824 | 427 | 0.6% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 14,867 | Conservative | 14,486 | 381 | 0.5% |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 1st | 13,507 | Labour | 13,161 | 346 | 0.5% |
| Glasgow South West | 1st | 12,565 | Labour | 12,279 | 286 | 0.4% |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 1st | 14,786 | Labour | 14,692 | 94 | 0.1% |
| Glasgow South | 2nd | 13,869 | Labour | 13,939 | 70 | 0.1% |
| Glasgow North | 2nd | 11,403 | Labour | 11,563 | 160 | 0.2% |
| Glasgow East | 2nd | 12,053 | Labour | 12,268 | 215 | 0.3% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 2nd | 10,969 | Labour | 11,613 | 644 | 0.9% |
| Mid Dunbartonshire | 2nd | 14,680 | Liberal Democrat | 15,370 | 690 | 0.9% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 2nd | 14,294 | Labour | 15,044 | 750 | 1.0% |
| Falkirk | 2nd | 13,685 | Labour | 14,457 | 772 | 1.0% |
| Glasgow North East | 2nd | 11,302 | Labour | 12,361 | 1,059 | 1.5% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 2nd | 12,618 | Conservative | 14,092 | 1,474 | 1.9% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 2nd | 14,125 | Liberal Democrat | 15,633 | 1,508 | 2.0% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 2nd | 13,876 | Conservative | 15,315 | 1,439 | 2.1% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 2nd | 13,753 | Labour | 15,380 | 1,627 | 2.4% |
| Edinburgh South West | 2nd | 12,964 | Labour | 14,874 | 1,910 | 2.6% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | 2nd | 13,712 | Labour | 15,595 | 1,883 | 2.6% |
| Coatbridge and Bellshill | 2nd | 13,397 | Labour | 15,374 | 1,977 | 2.7% |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 2nd | 12,280 | Labour | 14,252 | 1,972 | 2.8% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | 2nd | 13,541 | Labour | 15,616 | 2,075 | 2.9% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 2nd | 13,016 | Labour | 15,077 | 2,061 | 2.9% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 2nd | 14,203 | Labour | 16,704 | 2,501 | 3.2% |
| Glasgow West | 2nd | 12,626 | Labour | 14,831 | 2,205 | 3.2% |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 2nd | 12,531 | Labour | 15,275 | 2,744 | 3.8% |
| Central Ayrshire | 2nd | 11,570 | Labour | 14,269 | 2,699 | 3.9% |
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 2nd | 11,876 | Labour | 14,871 | 2,995 | 4.2% |
| East Renfrewshire | 2nd | 13,931 | Labour | 17,293 | 3,362 | 4.5% |
| Midlothian | 2nd | 14,182 | Labour | 17,567 | 3,385 | 4.6% |
| Airdrie and Shotts | 2nd | 11,950 | Labour | 15,299 | 3,349 | 4.8% |
See also: Electoral Analysis