VoteClimate: Scottish National Party Key Battleground Seats

Scottish National Party Key Battleground Seats

These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 36.9% | Labour: 30.9% | Conservative: 15.9% | Liberal Democrat: 7.1% | Green: 4.5% | Reform/Brexit: 2.2%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency SNP Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
North Ayrshire and Arran 1st 21,028 Labour 13,931 7,097 9.3%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey 1st 18,681 Conservative 12,515 6,166 9.2%
Central Ayrshire 1st 20,186 Labour 14,095 6,091 8.1%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1st 22,798 Labour 17,028 5,770 7.2%
Mid Dunbartonshire 1st 20,438 Labour 15,202 5,236 6.9%
Dundee Central 1st 23,188 Labour 17,983 5,205 6.7%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 1st 17,642 Liberal Democrat 12,476 5,166 7.1%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 1st 23,614 Conservative 18,706 4,908 5.9%
Edinburgh West 1st 20,934 Labour 16,372 4,562 5.3%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 1st 15,036 Labour 10,806 4,230 7.3%
Gordon and Buchan 1st 18,833 Conservative 15,013 3,820 5.6%
Dumfries and Galloway 1st 20,640 Conservative 17,492 3,148 4.0%
Bathgate and Linlithgow 1st 19,148 Labour 16,304 2,844 3.7%
North East Fife 1st 18,845 Liberal Democrat 16,372 2,473 3.6%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1st 17,086 Conservative 14,870 2,216 3.3%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East 1st 19,937 Conservative 17,781 2,156 2.8%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch 1st 19,565 Labour 17,428 2,137 3.2%
Livingston 1st 16,855 Labour 14,947 1,908 2.9%
East Kilbride and Strathaven 1st 20,025 Labour 18,445 1,580 2.1%
Paisley and Renfrewshire South 1st 18,452 Labour 16,908 1,544 2.4%
Edinburgh North and Leith 1st 16,238 Labour 14,912 1,326 2.1%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife 1st 17,666 Labour 16,588 1,078 1.5%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North 1st 19,633 Labour 18,610 1,023 1.4%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1st 20,286 Conservative 19,550 736 1.0%
Edinburgh South West 1st 18,529 Labour 18,027 502 0.7%
Dunfermline and Dollar 1st 17,015 Labour 16,811 204 0.3%
West Dunbartonshire 2nd 20,829 Labour 20,871 42 0.1%
Glasgow West 2nd 14,987 Labour 15,316 329 0.5%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley 2nd 17,306 Labour 17,682 376 0.5%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 2nd 5,642 Labour 6,186 544 2.6%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West 2nd 19,237 Labour 19,917 680 1.0%
Glasgow South 2nd 16,822 Labour 17,873 1,051 1.6%
Orkney and Shetland 2nd 6,951 Liberal Democrat 8,353 1,402 4.1%
Glasgow East 2nd 13,029 Labour 14,976 1,947 3.3%
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke 2nd 15,711 Labour 17,788 2,077 3.2%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh 2nd 22,217 Labour 24,544 2,327 2.6%
Glasgow North 2nd 16,038 Labour 18,486 2,448 3.5%
Glasgow South West 2nd 16,477 Labour 19,065 2,588 3.5%
Airdrie and Shotts 2nd 14,853 Labour 17,720 2,867 4.5%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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