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VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 207 seats where the majority is forecast to smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 25% | Conservative: 22% | Liberal Democrat: 13% | Green: 8.8%

[Last updated: 17 February 2025]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
Daventry Conservative 15,810 Reform 15,799 11 0.01%
Bridgend Reform 12,111 Labour 12,100 11 0.02%
Lichfield Conservative 14,795 Reform 14,780 15 0.02%
North West Cambridgeshire Reform 13,240 Conservative 13,219 21 0.03%
Newport West and Islwyn Reform 12,846 Labour 12,814 32 0.04%
Romsey and Southampton North Conservative 16,877 Liberal Democrat 16,845 32 0.04%
South Dorset Reform 13,051 Conservative 13,007 44 0.06%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform 13,697 Conservative 13,650 47 0.06%
Southend East and Rochford Labour 11,396 Reform 11,349 47 0.07%
Preston Other 10,091 Labour 10,039 52 0.07%
Congleton Conservative 14,016 Labour 13,961 55 0.08%
Bangor Aberconwy Reform 10,167 Labour 10,110 57 0.08%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative 13,220 Reform 13,156 64 0.09%
Pontypridd Labour 11,835 Reform 11,757 78 0.10%
Herne Bay and Sandwich Reform 15,448 Conservative 15,365 83 0.11%
Cities of London and Westminster Conservative 11,453 Labour 11,374 79 0.11%
Torridge and Tavistock Conservative 13,920 Reform 13,839 81 0.11%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative 12,775 Reform 12,688 87 0.11%
Weston-super-Mare Reform 12,135 Labour 12,054 81 0.11%
Bradford East Other 10,235 Labour 10,149 86 0.11%
Banbury Conservative 13,799 Labour 13,694 105 0.14%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Reform 13,879 Labour 13,775 104 0.14%
West Suffolk Reform 14,080 Conservative 13,963 117 0.15%
Gloucester Labour 12,101 Reform 11,974 127 0.16%
Maldon Reform 16,991 Conservative 16,862 129 0.16%
Bromsgrove Conservative 14,557 Reform 14,429 128 0.17%
Bournemouth West Reform 10,682 Labour 10,562 120 0.17%
Harwich and North Essex Conservative 14,778 Reform 14,636 142 0.19%
Warrington North Labour 13,988 Reform 13,846 142 0.20%
Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative 15,308 Reform 15,155 153 0.20%
Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour 14,299 Reform 14,154 145 0.21%
Welwyn Hatfield Labour 14,865 Conservative 14,710 155 0.21%
East Londonderry DUP 11,506 Sinn Fein 11,327 179 0.24%
Worthing West Labour 15,304 Conservative 15,119 185 0.24%
Kensington and Bayswater Conservative 12,926 Labour 12,737 189 0.24%
Huddersfield Green 11,207 Labour 11,007 200 0.26%
Hemel Hempstead Labour 12,429 Reform 12,246 183 0.26%
South Suffolk Conservative 14,169 Reform 13,953 216 0.29%
Suffolk Coastal Conservative 12,989 Reform 12,769 220 0.30%
Southend West and Leigh Conservative 13,317 Reform 13,094 223 0.30%
Wigan Labour 14,444 Reform 14,209 235 0.30%
Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative 14,151 Reform 13,934 217 0.31%
Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour 14,155 Reform 13,929 226 0.32%
Redditch Reform 12,861 Conservative 12,622 239 0.34%
Blyth and Ashington Reform 15,313 Labour 15,052 261 0.34%
Gainsborough Conservative 14,746 Reform 14,476 270 0.36%
Crawley Reform 13,161 Labour 12,875 286 0.38%
South Shropshire Liberal Democrat 15,335 Conservative 15,036 299 0.39%
Hartlepool Reform 12,597 Labour 12,315 282 0.39%
Northampton South Reform 12,782 Labour 12,497 285 0.40%
Bristol East Labour 17,263 Green 16,955 308 0.41%
South Norfolk Conservative 13,031 Labour 12,723 308 0.42%
Bolton West Reform 13,161 Labour 12,845 316 0.42%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative 13,203 Reform 12,889 314 0.43%
Stafford Labour 13,792 Reform 13,483 309 0.44%
The Wrekin Reform 14,880 Conservative 14,528 352 0.45%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform 11,963 Labour 11,630 333 0.45%
Romford Reform 14,033 Conservative 13,705 328 0.45%
Kettering Reform 13,587 Labour 13,220 367 0.46%
Altrincham and Sale West Labour 15,518 Conservative 15,174 344 0.46%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour 13,375 Reform 13,024 351 0.48%
Torfaen Reform 11,552 Labour 11,205 347 0.48%
North West Leicestershire Reform 14,643 Conservative 14,262 381 0.49%
Birmingham Erdington Reform 11,312 Labour 10,928 384 0.50%
South Holland and The Deepings Conservative 15,123 Reform 14,732 391 0.50%
Spelthorne Reform 12,717 Conservative 12,344 373 0.51%
North Dorset Liberal Democrat 15,754 Conservative 15,379 375 0.52%
Camborne and Redruth Labour 14,331 Reform 13,936 395 0.53%
Rhondda and Ogmore Reform 13,099 Labour 12,696 403 0.54%
East Thanet Reform 13,020 Labour 12,598 422 0.56%
Redcar Labour 11,703 Reform 11,306 397 0.57%
Stalybridge and Hyde Labour 12,124 Reform 11,710 414 0.57%
North Northumberland Labour 13,101 Reform 12,663 438 0.59%
Portsmouth North Reform 12,761 Conservative 12,343 418 0.59%
Stockton North Reform 13,247 Labour 12,823 424 0.60%
Monmouthshire Conservative 16,219 Labour 15,761 458 0.61%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform 9,573 Other 9,089 484 0.62%
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour 13,190 Reform 12,703 487 0.65%
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP 17,466 Liberal Democrat 16,956 510 0.65%
Alyn and Deeside Reform 14,122 Labour 13,607 515 0.68%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour 16,533 Conservative 15,988 545 0.70%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 13,159 Reform 12,603 556 0.70%
Isle of Wight West Labour 9,801 Reform 9,408 393 0.71%
Brent West Labour 12,936 Conservative 12,349 587 0.73%
Leigh and Atherton Reform 15,599 Labour 14,977 622 0.78%
South Derbyshire Reform 13,763 Labour 13,140 623 0.85%
Wrexham Labour 11,688 Reform 11,089 599 0.85%
Brigg and Immingham Reform 14,811 Conservative 14,187 624 0.85%
Carlisle Reform 14,108 Labour 13,434 674 0.87%
Edinburgh South Labour 13,267 SNP 12,653 614 0.87%
Ilford South Labour 12,093 Other 11,385 708 0.87%
Braintree Reform 16,112 Conservative 15,429 683 0.88%
Wolverhampton North East Reform 11,297 Labour 10,665 632 0.89%
Farnham and Bordon Liberal Democrat 16,886 Conservative 16,197 689 0.91%
Bracknell Conservative 12,547 Reform 11,889 658 0.92%
Hexham Conservative 21,377 Labour 20,673 704 0.92%
Southport Labour 12,712 Reform 12,033 679 0.92%
Pendle and Clitheroe Conservative 13,681 Reform 12,942 739 0.94%
Darlington Conservative 13,049 Labour 12,379 670 0.95%
Brentwood and Ongar Reform 16,246 Conservative 15,526 720 0.96%
Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative 13,723 Labour 13,006 717 0.96%
Newport East Labour 12,096 Reform 11,359 737 0.96%
Birmingham Ladywood Other 12,137 Labour 11,327 810 0.97%
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative 14,561 Reform 13,811 750 0.98%
Bassetlaw Reform 14,520 Labour 13,756 764 0.98%
Leeds South West and Morley Labour 13,196 Reform 12,485 711 0.99%
Stourbridge Reform 12,043 Labour 11,367 676 0.99%
East Hampshire Liberal Democrat 16,375 Conservative 15,674 701 0.99%
Mid Derbyshire Conservative 13,975 Reform 13,279 696 1.00%
Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour 13,510 Reform 12,803 707 1.01%
Poole Conservative 12,616 Reform 11,879 737 1.02%
Staffordshire Moorlands Reform 14,448 Conservative 13,730 718 1.03%
Swindon North Labour 13,370 Conservative 12,614 756 1.03%
Birmingham Northfield Reform 11,811 Labour 11,039 772 1.04%
Rugby Labour 14,530 Conservative 13,746 784 1.05%
Scunthorpe Reform 12,291 Labour 11,512 779 1.05%
Bolsover Reform 13,581 Labour 12,748 833 1.08%
Hertford and Stortford Labour 15,406 Conservative 14,547 859 1.09%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 12,975 Reform 12,098 877 1.10%
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Other 11,299 Reform 10,446 853 1.12%
South Ribble Labour 14,826 Reform 14,000 826 1.13%
Gravesham Reform 13,454 Conservative 12,629 825 1.13%
Rossendale and Darwen Reform 14,428 Labour 13,577 851 1.14%
Barnsley North Reform 14,827 Labour 13,930 897 1.15%
Stoke-on-Trent South Reform 13,041 Conservative 12,232 809 1.16%
Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative 15,991 Reform 15,141 850 1.16%
South Leicestershire Conservative 16,055 Reform 15,136 919 1.17%
Crewe and Nantwich Labour 15,569 Reform 14,663 906 1.18%
Vale of Glamorgan Labour 13,144 Conservative 12,259 885 1.19%
Wellingborough and Rushden Reform 14,091 Labour 13,169 922 1.19%
Telford Reform 14,489 Labour 13,594 895 1.21%
North East Hertfordshire Conservative 14,769 Reform 13,826 943 1.21%
Chipping Barnet Conservative 17,214 Labour 16,266 948 1.21%
Louth and Horncastle Reform 16,220 Conservative 15,253 967 1.26%
Erewash Reform 13,665 Labour 12,763 902 1.26%
Southampton Itchen Labour 11,727 Reform 10,861 866 1.27%
Mid Norfolk Conservative 14,949 Reform 13,994 955 1.27%
Swansea West Labour 10,788 Reform 9,836 952 1.28%
Bolton South and Walkden Reform 12,050 Labour 11,028 1,022 1.28%
Clwyd North Conservative 12,255 Reform 11,283 972 1.30%
Grantham and Bourne Conservative 14,799 Reform 13,844 955 1.30%
Caerphilly Reform 11,478 Labour 10,518 960 1.32%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Reform 14,927 Conservative 13,893 1,034 1.35%
Ashton-under-Lyne Reform 12,458 Labour 11,499 959 1.35%
Rayleigh and Wickford Reform 16,664 Conservative 15,623 1,041 1.36%
Broxbourne Conservative 14,106 Reform 13,068 1,038 1.38%
Stevenage Labour 13,155 Reform 12,171 984 1.39%
North Antrim Other 12,229 DUP 11,192 1,037 1.39%
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform 12,617 Conservative 11,642 975 1.39%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Reform 13,411 Labour 12,442 969 1.40%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk SNP 15,087 Conservative 14,014 1,073 1.40%
Clwyd East Labour 13,685 Reform 12,609 1,076 1.40%
Aylesbury Conservative 12,795 Reform 11,675 1,120 1.41%
Fylde Conservative 14,207 Reform 13,102 1,105 1.43%
Plymouth Moor View Reform 14,228 Labour 13,152 1,076 1.44%
Ossett and Denby Dale Reform 13,824 Labour 12,775 1,049 1.45%
Sussex Weald Conservative 14,390 Reform 13,319 1,071 1.47%
Doncaster Central Labour 13,127 Reform 11,994 1,133 1.52%
Scarborough and Whitby Reform 14,315 Labour 13,183 1,132 1.52%
Bishop Auckland Reform 13,769 Labour 12,683 1,086 1.54%
Broxtowe Labour 14,483 Reform 13,391 1,092 1.55%
Dagenham and Rainham Reform 13,451 Labour 12,259 1,192 1.56%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform 12,213 Labour 11,051 1,162 1.57%
Rochdale Other 11,587 Reform 10,432 1,155 1.59%
Beverley and Holderness Conservative 13,948 Reform 12,796 1,152 1.60%
Blackpool South Reform 13,915 Labour 12,670 1,245 1.61%
North West Norfolk Conservative 14,164 Reform 12,967 1,197 1.61%
Wyre Forest Reform 14,114 Conservative 12,865 1,249 1.62%
South Shields Reform 12,171 Labour 11,063 1,108 1.62%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 9,821 Reform 8,541 1,280 1.66%
Loughborough Labour 12,840 Reform 11,673 1,167 1.69%
Maidstone and Malling Reform 13,744 Conservative 12,438 1,306 1.71%
Dartford Reform 14,054 Conservative 12,757 1,297 1.72%
Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform 13,041 Labour 11,872 1,169 1.72%
Aldershot Labour 14,708 Reform 13,339 1,369 1.74%
Faversham and Mid Kent Reform 14,403 Conservative 13,104 1,299 1.75%
Wolverhampton South East Labour 12,682 Reform 11,318 1,364 1.76%
Worsley and Eccles Labour 15,179 Reform 13,781 1,398 1.78%
East Antrim DUP 11,462 Alliance 10,156 1,306 1.78%
Blaydon and Consett Labour 15,913 Reform 14,648 1,265 1.79%
South West Devon Conservative 15,949 Reform 14,555 1,394 1.80%
North East Derbyshire Conservative 14,408 Labour 13,080 1,328 1.81%
Bridlington and The Wolds Reform 14,471 Conservative 13,112 1,359 1.83%
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour 12,173 Reform 10,772 1,401 1.86%
Forest of Dean Conservative 14,461 Reform 13,101 1,360 1.87%
Penrith and Solway Labour 14,881 Conservative 13,416 1,465 1.88%
North Cotswolds Conservative 15,002 Liberal Democrat 13,625 1,377 1.88%
Colne Valley Labour 14,149 Conservative 12,781 1,368 1.88%
Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative 14,295 Reform 12,961 1,334 1.89%
North East Somerset and Hanham Labour 15,446 Conservative 14,050 1,396 1.89%
Leicester East Conservative 12,468 Other 11,005 1,463 1.91%
Christchurch Conservative 14,546 Reform 13,177 1,369 1.93%
Halifax Reform 11,767 Labour 10,255 1,512 1.95%
Mid Cheshire Labour 13,795 Reform 12,414 1,381 1.96%
Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform 11,629 Labour 10,182 1,447 1.97%
Harlow Reform 13,987 Conservative 12,505 1,482 1.98%
South West Wiltshire Conservative 13,769 Reform 12,316 1,453 1.99%
Godalming and Ash Liberal Democrat 21,118 Conservative 19,607 1,511 1.99%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 15,350 Reform 13,811 1,539 2.00%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 15,095 Reform 13,566 1,529 2.03%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 14,712 Reform 13,163 1,549 2.03%
Wycombe Labour 11,732 Conservative 10,243 1,489 2.03%
Halesowen Reform 12,503 Labour 11,112 1,391 2.03%
Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour 12,355 Reform 10,842 1,513 2.05%
Easington Reform 13,962 Labour 12,537 1,425 2.05%
Isle of Wight East Reform 10,127 Conservative 8,969 1,158 2.07%
Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour 15,724 Reform 14,076 1,648 2.09%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

See also: Electoral Analysis

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