VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 74 seats where the majority is forecast to be smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
Woking Conservative 16,018 Liberal Democrat 15,996 22 0.03%
West Dunbartonshire Labour 20,871 SNP 20,829 42 0.05%
South Dorset Conservative 19,877 Labour 19,831 46 0.06%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,305 Liberal Democrat 16,212 93 0.14%
Selby Labour 19,158 Conservative 19,063 95 0.14%
Didcot and Wantage Conservative 17,701 Liberal Democrat 17,593 108 0.15%
Fylde Labour 21,610 Conservative 21,491 119 0.16%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 19,486 Conservative 19,362 124 0.16%
South Derbyshire Conservative 19,492 Labour 19,354 138 0.20%
Dunfermline and Dollar SNP 17,015 Labour 16,811 204 0.31%
Derbyshire Dales Conservative 21,627 Labour 21,385 242 0.33%
Lowestoft Labour 18,505 Conservative 18,259 246 0.35%
Aylesbury Labour 17,450 Conservative 17,196 254 0.36%
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 19,025 Conservative 18,738 287 0.39%
Dartford Labour 20,653 Conservative 20,353 300 0.41%
Amber Valley Conservative 19,517 Labour 19,181 336 0.48%
Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,593 Plaid Cymru 16,185 408 0.53%
Hertford and Stortford Labour 21,081 Conservative 20,677 404 0.53%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour 17,682 SNP 17,306 376 0.54%
Glasgow West Labour 15,316 SNP 14,987 329 0.55%
Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative 24,980 Labour 24,468 512 0.55%
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative 17,806 Labour 17,360 446 0.58%
Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 20,067 Conservative 19,627 440 0.60%
North East Hertfordshire Labour 21,177 Conservative 20,682 495 0.64%
Edinburgh South West SNP 18,529 Labour 18,027 502 0.67%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 19,210 Liberal Democrat 18,727 483 0.69%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 15,295 Liberal Democrat 14,788 507 0.70%
South Norfolk Conservative 17,106 Labour 16,673 433 0.71%
Portsmouth North Labour 19,355 Conservative 18,834 521 0.73%
Redditch Conservative 19,576 Labour 18,986 590 0.87%
North Bedfordshire Conservative 22,967 Labour 22,200 767 0.88%
Folkestone and Hythe Conservative 18,923 Labour 18,273 650 0.92%
Romford Conservative 20,901 Labour 20,215 686 0.94%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk SNP 20,286 Conservative 19,550 736 0.96%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 19,917 SNP 19,237 680 0.97%
Staffordshire Moorlands Conservative 21,617 Labour 20,861 756 1.03%
Isle of Wight East Labour 14,060 Conservative 13,484 576 1.03%
Isle of Wight West Labour 14,403 Conservative 13,812 591 1.03%
Rochester and Strood Labour 20,291 Conservative 19,432 859 1.12%
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,232 Conservative 21,326 906 1.12%
Huntingdon Conservative 24,533 Labour 23,470 1,063 1.13%
Aldershot Conservative 19,813 Labour 18,938 875 1.14%
Hitchin Conservative 17,091 Labour 16,257 834 1.24%
Sutton Coldfield Conservative 20,166 Labour 19,170 996 1.32%
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,513 Conservative 15,560 953 1.33%
Suffolk Coastal Conservative 18,756 Labour 17,804 952 1.34%
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein 22,651 UUP 21,596 1,055 1.39%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth Conservative 20,571 Labour 19,577 994 1.41%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP 19,633 Labour 18,610 1,023 1.42%
North West Leicestershire Conservative 21,888 Labour 20,778 1,110 1.46%
Wokingham Conservative 20,669 Liberal Democrat 19,421 1,248 1.50%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP 17,666 Labour 16,588 1,078 1.52%
Waveney Valley Conservative 24,030 Labour 22,701 1,329 1.54%
Congleton Labour 21,515 Conservative 20,371 1,144 1.55%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,458 Conservative 17,349 1,109 1.57%
Glasgow South Labour 17,873 SNP 16,822 1,051 1.58%
Harwich and North Essex Conservative 20,198 Labour 19,053 1,145 1.59%
Ribble Valley Labour 20,661 Conservative 19,495 1,166 1.60%
The Wrekin Conservative 21,841 Labour 20,629 1,212 1.63%
Tatton Labour 20,512 Conservative 19,251 1,261 1.64%
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 19,518 Conservative 18,309 1,209 1.66%
Harlow Labour 21,415 Conservative 20,190 1,225 1.67%
Stourbridge Labour 22,853 Conservative 21,510 1,343 1.67%
Gillingham and Rainham Labour 18,372 Conservative 17,223 1,149 1.71%
Reigate Conservative 19,224 Labour 17,914 1,310 1.71%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 19,029 Labour 17,834 1,195 1.74%
Newark Conservative 22,960 Labour 21,513 1,447 1.81%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 15,877 Labour 14,644 1,233 1.84%
Beverley and Holderness Conservative 19,934 Labour 18,603 1,331 1.87%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,973 Liberal Democrat 15,610 1,363 1.99%
Kettering Labour 23,789 Conservative 22,118 1,671 2.03%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative 18,141 Labour 16,560 1,581 2.04%
Edinburgh North and Leith SNP 16,238 Labour 14,912 1,326 2.06%
Central Devon Labour 21,742 Conservative 20,256 1,486 2.07%

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