VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 77 seats where the majority is forecast to be smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%

[Last updated: 24 June 2024]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
Lichfield Labour 20,417 Conservative 20,414 3 0.00%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Labour 15,986 Conservative 15,970 16 0.02%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Labour 17,677 Conservative 17,619 58 0.08%
Stratford-on-Avon Liberal Democrat 18,190 Conservative 18,094 96 0.13%
Witney Conservative 16,995 Liberal Democrat 16,886 109 0.16%
Central Ayrshire SNP 17,048 Labour 16,895 153 0.20%
South Devon Liberal Democrat 18,103 Conservative 17,951 152 0.21%
Epsom and Ewell Conservative 20,009 Liberal Democrat 19,792 217 0.25%
Gordon and Buchan Conservative 16,080 SNP 15,906 174 0.25%
Windsor Conservative 15,783 Labour 15,608 175 0.26%
Tatton Labour 19,886 Conservative 19,679 207 0.27%
Romford Labour 17,381 Conservative 17,165 216 0.29%
Suffolk Coastal Labour 17,823 Conservative 17,575 248 0.33%
Maidenhead Liberal Democrat 20,403 Conservative 20,115 288 0.38%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative 16,823 Labour 16,553 270 0.39%
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative 20,482 Labour 20,137 345 0.44%
Broxbourne Labour 17,129 Conservative 16,718 411 0.55%
Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 20,005 Conservative 19,576 429 0.57%
Belfast East DUP 17,557 Alliance 17,166 391 0.58%
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Conservative 19,042 Labour 18,651 391 0.61%
North Down Alliance 15,054 Other 14,619 435 0.61%
Chester South and Eddisbury Conservative 17,939 Labour 17,517 422 0.62%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour 18,003 Conservative 17,450 553 0.71%
Solihull West and Shirley Conservative 16,555 Labour 15,981 574 0.75%
North West Norfolk Conservative 16,598 Labour 15,995 603 0.81%
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 15,697 Conservative 15,106 591 0.82%
South West Wiltshire Labour 14,814 Conservative 14,267 547 0.84%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP 18,173 Conservative 17,505 668 0.88%
Skipton and Ripon Conservative 19,584 Labour 18,901 683 0.90%
South West Norfolk Labour 15,366 Conservative 14,689 677 0.94%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour 24,113 SNP 23,264 849 0.96%
Goole and Pocklington Conservative 22,420 Labour 21,479 941 1.04%
Boston and Skegness Conservative 14,978 Reform 14,194 784 1.05%
Braintree Conservative 18,400 Labour 17,585 815 1.07%
Fylde Conservative 19,519 Labour 18,692 827 1.09%
Wyre Forest Labour 18,279 Conservative 17,388 891 1.14%
Dumfries and Galloway SNP 17,263 Conservative 16,295 968 1.23%
South Antrim UUP 11,140 DUP 10,236 904 1.26%
Bridgwater Conservative 14,516 Labour 13,715 801 1.27%
Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour 20,313 Conservative 19,241 1,072 1.30%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Labour 19,718 SNP 18,819 899 1.33%
Melksham and Devizes Conservative 18,137 Liberal Democrat 17,166 971 1.36%
Sheffield Hallam Labour 23,209 Liberal Democrat 22,174 1,035 1.40%
Havant Conservative 15,471 Labour 14,428 1,043 1.45%
Alloa and Grangemouth SNP 15,399 Labour 14,502 897 1.50%
South Dorset Labour 17,002 Conservative 15,894 1,108 1.50%
The Wrekin Labour 18,518 Conservative 17,399 1,119 1.51%
North East Hampshire Conservative 19,352 Liberal Democrat 18,188 1,164 1.51%
Grantham and Bourne Conservative 18,440 Labour 17,248 1,192 1.56%
Poole Labour 15,866 Conservative 14,712 1,154 1.59%
Bridlington and The Wolds Conservative 15,280 Labour 14,246 1,034 1.60%
North Bedfordshire Conservative 21,291 Labour 19,890 1,401 1.61%
Basildon and Billericay Labour 16,009 Conservative 14,783 1,226 1.61%
Melton and Syston Labour 18,916 Conservative 17,663 1,253 1.65%
Ashfield Reform 12,071 Labour 10,979 1,092 1.68%
West Suffolk Labour 17,777 Conservative 16,430 1,347 1.74%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP 19,876 Labour 18,486 1,390 1.74%
Horsham Liberal Democrat 19,737 Conservative 18,380 1,357 1.74%
Faversham and Mid Kent Labour 17,353 Conservative 16,073 1,280 1.78%
North Northumberland Labour 19,708 Conservative 18,319 1,389 1.80%
Bexhill and Battle Labour 17,377 Conservative 16,144 1,233 1.80%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 16,485 Labour 15,252 1,233 1.84%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 16,529 Conservative 15,252 1,277 1.86%
Dundee Central SNP 21,461 Labour 19,986 1,475 1.89%
South Northamptonshire Conservative 20,221 Labour 18,777 1,444 1.89%
Beverley and Holderness Labour 16,901 Conservative 15,548 1,353 1.90%
Sutton Coldfield Conservative 20,242 Labour 18,790 1,452 1.92%
Lagan Valley DUP 14,848 Alliance 13,395 1,453 1.92%
Farnham and Bordon Liberal Democrat 19,423 Conservative 18,073 1,350 1.93%
Tewkesbury Conservative 16,213 Liberal Democrat 14,868 1,345 1.93%
Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative 18,597 Labour 17,203 1,394 1.96%
Monmouthshire Labour 20,095 Conservative 18,618 1,477 2.04%
Ynys Mon Plaid Cymru 11,136 Labour 10,071 1,065 2.05%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Labour 18,269 Conservative 16,629 1,640 2.07%
Epping Forest Conservative 20,380 Labour 18,831 1,549 2.08%
Newark Labour 21,586 Conservative 19,916 1,670 2.09%
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Labour 19,220 Conservative 17,676 1,544 2.10%

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