VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 168 seats where the majority is forecast to smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Conservative: 26% | Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 21.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.7% | Green: 8%

[Last updated: 31 December 2024]

Constituency	Winner		Second		Votes Required
Blackpool South	Labour	12,864	Reform	12,857	7	0.01%
Corby and East Northamptonshire	Labour	15,738	Conservative	15,728	10	0.01%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Conservative	12,888	Reform	12,877	11	0.02%
Scarborough and Whitby	Labour	13,217	Conservative	13,187	30	0.04%
Lowestoft	Reform	13,106	Conservative	13,051	55	0.07%
Bournemouth East	Conservative	13,716	Labour	13,658	58	0.08%
Oldham East and Saddleworth	Reform	10,415	Labour	10,342	73	0.10%
Glasgow South	Labour	13,939	SNP	13,869	70	0.10%
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Labour	11,206	Reform	11,128	78	0.11%
Crawley	Conservative	13,011	Labour	12,926	85	0.11%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	SNP	14,786	Labour	14,692	94	0.13%
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Conservative	14,723	Labour	14,612	111	0.15%
Huddersfield	Labour	11,161	Green	11,042	119	0.15%
Wellingborough and Rushden	Labour	13,203	Conservative	13,084	119	0.15%
Rossendale and Darwen	Labour	13,607	Conservative	13,490	117	0.16%
Watford	Conservative	11,658	Labour	11,539	119	0.16%
Halifax	Reform	10,505	Labour	10,376	129	0.17%
Rushcliffe	Conservative	19,161	Labour	19,008	153	0.19%
Preston	Labour	10,268	Other	10,091	177	0.23%
Dagenham and Rainham	Labour	12,417	Reform	12,242	175	0.23%
East Londonderry	DUP	11,506	Sinn Fein	11,327	179	0.24%
Glasgow North	Labour	11,563	SNP	11,403	160	0.24%
North East Hampshire	Conservative	19,976	Liberal Democrat	19,790	186	0.24%
Bassetlaw	Labour	13,786	Conservative	13,593	193	0.25%
Halesowen	Conservative	11,349	Reform	11,179	170	0.25%
South Shields	Labour	11,289	Reform	11,115	174	0.25%
Basingstoke	Labour	15,678	Conservative	15,478	200	0.25%
Bradford East	Labour	10,443	Other	10,235	208	0.28%
Easington	Reform	13,010	Labour	12,799	211	0.30%
Barrow and Furness	Conservative	14,167	Labour	13,935	232	0.31%
Glasgow East	Labour	12,268	SNP	12,053	215	0.31%
Bolton South and Walkden	Labour	11,274	Reform	11,008	266	0.33%
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Labour	11,907	Reform	11,677	230	0.34%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough	Labour	12,663	Reform	12,421	242	0.35%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire	Conservative	16,628	Liberal Democrat	16,351	277	0.35%
Washington and Gateshead South	Reform	13,699	Labour	13,437	262	0.37%
Plymouth Moor View	Labour	13,183	Conservative	12,907	276	0.37%
Loughborough	Conservative	13,114	Labour	12,858	256	0.37%
Aldershot	Conservative	15,025	Labour	14,730	295	0.38%
Carlisle	Conservative	13,772	Labour	13,466	306	0.39%
Rochester and Strood	Conservative	13,143	Reform	12,851	292	0.39%
Hemel Hempstead	Conservative	12,750	Labour	12,469	281	0.40%
Ashton-under-Lyne	Labour	11,728	Reform	11,438	290	0.41%
Glasgow South West	SNP	12,565	Labour	12,279	286	0.42%
Thurrock	Reform	12,338	Labour	12,032	306	0.42%
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Reform	13,291	Labour	12,972	319	0.43%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth	Reform	13,466	Conservative	13,166	300	0.43%
Bolton West	Conservative	13,217	Labour	12,878	339	0.45%
Wycombe	Conservative	12,137	Labour	11,797	340	0.46%
Birmingham Ladywood	Other	12,137	Labour	11,745	392	0.47%
North Ayrshire and Arran	SNP	13,507	Labour	13,161	346	0.48%
Normanton and Hemsworth	Reform	13,475	Labour	13,112	363	0.48%
Bishop Auckland	Labour	12,746	Reform	12,401	345	0.49%
Derby South	Reform	11,122	Labour	10,765	357	0.49%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP	14,867	Conservative	14,486	381	0.49%
Caerphilly	Labour	10,769	Reform	10,407	362	0.50%
Barnsley North	Labour	14,256	Reform	13,833	423	0.54%
North Northumberland	Conservative	13,571	Labour	13,161	410	0.55%
Milton Keynes North	Conservative	14,839	Labour	14,447	392	0.55%
Chatham and Aylesford	Reform	12,664	Conservative	12,247	417	0.56%
Heywood and Middleton North	Reform	11,803	Labour	11,386	417	0.57%
Sherwood Forest	Reform	14,716	Conservative	14,262	454	0.58%
Bolton North East	Reform	12,403	Labour	11,940	463	0.58%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	SNP	13,251	Conservative	12,824	427	0.61%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	Other	9,089	Reform	8,614	475	0.61%
Hornchurch and Upminster	Reform	16,125	Conservative	15,641	484	0.64%
Houghton and Sunderland South	Reform	14,801	Labour	14,279	522	0.67%
Neath and Swansea East	Reform	13,112	Labour	12,583	529	0.69%
Southport	Labour	12,776	Conservative	12,243	533	0.72%
South Ribble	Labour	14,855	Conservative	14,311	544	0.74%
Nuneaton	Conservative	12,410	Reform	11,875	535	0.74%
Birmingham Northfield	Labour	11,097	Reform	10,544	553	0.75%
Telford	Labour	13,718	Reform	13,164	554	0.75%
Stoke-on-Trent North	Reform	11,400	Labour	10,858	542	0.78%
Wolverhampton North East	Labour	10,706	Reform	10,156	550	0.78%
Weston-super-Mare	Conservative	12,645	Labour	12,083	562	0.79%
Walsall and Bloxwich	Reform	9,730	Labour	9,137	593	0.79%
Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrat	21,410	Conservative	20,802	608	0.81%
Basildon and Billericay	Reform	13,998	Conservative	13,369	629	0.82%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	SNP	15,477	Labour	14,852	625	0.82%
Dover and Deal	Reform	14,729	Labour	14,079	650	0.85%
Erewash	Labour	12,815	Reform	12,201	614	0.86%
Bolsover	Labour	12,810	Reform	12,146	664	0.86%
Bangor Aberconwy	Labour	10,223	Conservative	9,608	615	0.87%
Tamworth	Conservative	14,599	Reform	13,927	672	0.90%
Harrow West	Labour	14,939	Conservative	14,222	717	0.90%
Gillingham and Rainham	Conservative	12,291	Reform	11,631	660	0.90%
Livingston	SNP	15,194	Labour	14,487	707	0.91%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Labour	11,613	SNP	10,969	644	0.92%
Bristol East	Labour	16,889	Green	16,180	709	0.93%
Mid Dunbartonshire	Liberal Democrat	15,370	SNP	14,680	690	0.94%
Southend East and Rochford	Conservative	12,077	Labour	11,417	660	0.94%
Ossett and Denby Dale	Conservative	13,492	Labour	12,795	697	0.96%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Labour	15,044	SNP	14,294	750	1.00%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Liberal Democrat	13,219	Conservative	12,476	743	1.02%
Penrith and Solway	Conservative	15,686	Labour	14,890	796	1.02%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife	SNP	13,612	Labour	12,886	726	1.03%
Falkirk	Labour	14,457	SNP	13,685	772	1.05%
Colne Valley	Conservative	14,927	Labour	14,152	775	1.07%
Birmingham Erdington	Labour	11,103	Reform	10,275	828	1.07%
Leigh and Atherton	Labour	15,203	Reform	14,347	856	1.07%
Havant	Conservative	13,450	Reform	12,630	820	1.13%
Eastleigh	Liberal Democrat	15,154	Conservative	14,350	804	1.15%
Spen Valley	Reform	12,772	Labour	11,934	838	1.15%
Ashford	Conservative	14,082	Reform	13,192	890	1.17%
Rhondda and Ogmore	Labour	13,070	Reform	12,187	883	1.19%
Ynys Mon	Plaid Cymru	10,590	Conservative	9,960	630	1.19%
Ilford South	Labour	12,352	Other	11,385	967	1.19%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare	Labour	11,953	Reform	11,030	923	1.24%
Torfaen	Labour	11,385	Reform	10,465	920	1.28%
Stockton North	Labour	12,940	Reform	12,027	913	1.30%
North East Somerset and Hanham	Conservative	16,415	Labour	15,451	964	1.30%
Clwyd East	Conservative	14,718	Labour	13,708	1,010	1.32%
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Reform	13,018	Conservative	11,961	1,057	1.34%
Alyn and Deeside	Labour	13,790	Reform	12,767	1,023	1.35%
Bradford South	Reform	9,668	Labour	8,703	965	1.36%
South West Norfolk	Reform	12,590	Conservative	11,574	1,016	1.36%
Bury North	Labour	14,737	Conservative	13,662	1,075	1.38%
North Antrim	Other	12,229	DUP	11,192	1,037	1.39%
Hartlepool	Labour	12,426	Reform	11,433	993	1.39%
Dudley	Reform	11,799	Conservative	10,817	982	1.40%
Mansfield	Conservative	13,312	Reform	12,264	1,048	1.41%
Sunderland Central	Reform	13,700	Labour	12,608	1,092	1.43%
East Thanet	Labour	12,686	Reform	11,602	1,084	1.45%
Stafford	Conservative	14,820	Labour	13,795	1,025	1.45%
Glasgow North East	Labour	12,361	SNP	11,302	1,059	1.46%
Milton Keynes Central	Labour	15,127	Conservative	13,896	1,231	1.52%
Northampton South	Conservative	13,592	Labour	12,514	1,078	1.53%
Burnley	Reform	10,324	Labour	9,168	1,156	1.54%
Castle Point	Conservative	15,592	Reform	14,493	1,099	1.55%
Isle of Wight West	Conservative	10,671	Labour	9,813	858	1.55%
Blyth and Ashington	Labour	15,288	Reform	14,089	1,199	1.57%
Hyndburn	Conservative	10,995	Reform	9,936	1,059	1.58%
Scunthorpe	Conservative	12,675	Labour	11,510	1,165	1.58%
Vale of Glamorgan	Conservative	14,349	Labour	13,158	1,191	1.60%
Hitchin	Labour	17,340	Conservative	16,114	1,226	1.62%
Wrexham	Labour	11,766	Conservative	10,620	1,146	1.63%
Cannock Chase	Reform	14,491	Conservative	13,233	1,258	1.63%
High Peak	Labour	17,023	Conservative	15,798	1,225	1.65%
Croydon East	Labour	13,878	Conservative	12,610	1,268	1.66%
South Derbyshire	Conservative	14,387	Labour	13,151	1,236	1.68%
Bournemouth West	Conservative	11,770	Labour	10,585	1,185	1.69%
Bridgwater	Conservative	12,612	Reform	11,362	1,250	1.75%
Tipton and Wednesbury	Reform	10,196	Conservative	8,890	1,306	1.76%
East Antrim	DUP	11,462	Alliance	10,156	1,306	1.78%
Brent West	Conservative	14,338	Labour	12,909	1,429	1.79%
North Durham	Reform	13,639	Labour	12,318	1,321	1.80%
Swindon North	Conservative	14,694	Labour	13,359	1,335	1.82%
Stevenage	Labour	13,215	Conservative	11,918	1,297	1.83%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	Labour	13,914	Reform	12,589	1,325	1.83%
Dumfries and Galloway	Conservative	14,092	SNP	12,618	1,474	1.88%
Newport West and Islwyn	Labour	13,025	Reform	11,567	1,458	1.92%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire	Labour	9,982	Other	8,494	1,488	1.92%
Rotherham	Reform	14,307	Labour	12,838	1,469	1.93%
Pontypridd	Labour	12,147	Reform	10,667	1,480	1.95%
Newton Abbot	Liberal Democrat	14,390	Conservative	12,950	1,440	1.95%
Bridgend	Labour	12,305	Reform	10,852	1,453	1.99%
Horsham	Liberal Democrat	20,301	Conservative	18,724	1,577	1.99%
Southampton Itchen	Labour	11,786	Conservative	10,423	1,363	1.99%
Worcester	Labour	13,870	Conservative	12,373	1,497	2.00%
Rugby	Conservative	16,032	Labour	14,525	1,507	2.01%
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Liberal Democrat	15,633	SNP	14,125	1,508	2.02%
Hertford and Stortford	Conservative	17,015	Labour	15,418	1,597	2.02%
Redcar	Conservative	13,107	Labour	11,683	1,424	2.03%
Gloucester	Conservative	13,755	Labour	12,125	1,630	2.05%
Gordon and Buchan	Conservative	15,315	SNP	13,876	1,439	2.07%
Melksham and Devizes	Liberal Democrat	18,726	Conservative	17,203	1,523	2.07%
Godalming and Ash	Conservative	22,314	Liberal Democrat	20,734	1,580	2.08%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

Maximise your vote to save the planet.

Join Now