There are 77 seats where the majority is forecast to be smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.
Vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%
[Last updated: 24 June 2024]
Constituency | Winner | Second | Votes Required | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lichfield | Labour | 20,417 | Conservative | 20,414 | 3 | 0.00% |
Hereford and South Herefordshire | Labour | 15,986 | Conservative | 15,970 | 16 | 0.02% |
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | Labour | 17,677 | Conservative | 17,619 | 58 | 0.07% |
Stratford-on-Avon | Liberal Democrat | 18,190 | Conservative | 18,094 | 96 | 0.13% |
Witney | Conservative | 16,995 | Liberal Democrat | 16,886 | 109 | 0.14% |
South Devon | Liberal Democrat | 18,103 | Conservative | 17,951 | 152 | 0.21% |
Central Ayrshire | SNP | 17,048 | Labour | 16,895 | 153 | 0.22% |
Windsor | Conservative | 15,783 | Labour | 15,608 | 175 | 0.24% |
Gordon and Buchan | Conservative | 16,080 | SNP | 15,906 | 174 | 0.25% |
Tatton | Labour | 19,886 | Conservative | 19,679 | 207 | 0.28% |
Epsom and Ewell | Conservative | 20,009 | Liberal Democrat | 19,792 | 217 | 0.28% |
Romford | Labour | 17,381 | Conservative | 17,165 | 216 | 0.30% |
Suffolk Coastal | Labour | 17,823 | Conservative | 17,575 | 248 | 0.33% |
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | Conservative | 16,823 | Labour | 16,553 | 270 | 0.37% |
Maidenhead | Liberal Democrat | 20,403 | Conservative | 20,115 | 288 | 0.38% |
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | Conservative | 20,482 | Labour | 20,137 | 345 | 0.49% |
Belfast East | DUP | 17,557 | Alliance | 17,166 | 391 | 0.54% |
Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Conservative | 19,042 | Labour | 18,651 | 391 | 0.55% |
Broxbourne | Labour | 17,129 | Conservative | 16,718 | 411 | 0.55% |
Chester South and Eddisbury | Conservative | 17,939 | Labour | 17,517 | 422 | 0.57% |
North Down | Alliance | 15,054 | Other | 14,619 | 435 | 0.59% |
Romsey and Southampton North | Liberal Democrat | 20,005 | Conservative | 19,576 | 429 | 0.60% |
Finchley and Golders Green | Labour | 18,003 | Conservative | 17,450 | 553 | 0.71% |
South West Wiltshire | Labour | 14,814 | Conservative | 14,267 | 547 | 0.75% |
Solihull West and Shirley | Conservative | 16,555 | Labour | 15,981 | 574 | 0.80% |
Newton Abbot | Liberal Democrat | 15,697 | Conservative | 15,106 | 591 | 0.80% |
North West Norfolk | Conservative | 16,598 | Labour | 15,995 | 603 | 0.81% |
Skipton and Ripon | Conservative | 19,584 | Labour | 18,901 | 683 | 0.86% |
South West Norfolk | Labour | 15,366 | Conservative | 14,689 | 677 | 0.91% |
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | SNP | 18,173 | Conservative | 17,505 | 668 | 0.95% |
Boston and Skegness | Conservative | 14,978 | Reform | 14,194 | 784 | 1.03% |
Braintree | Conservative | 18,400 | Labour | 17,585 | 815 | 1.05% |
Fylde | Conservative | 19,519 | Labour | 18,692 | 827 | 1.07% |
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Labour | 24,113 | SNP | 23,264 | 849 | 1.11% |
Bridgwater | Conservative | 14,516 | Labour | 13,715 | 801 | 1.12% |
Wyre Forest | Labour | 18,279 | Conservative | 17,388 | 891 | 1.15% |
South Antrim | UUP | 11,140 | DUP | 10,236 | 904 | 1.17% |
Goole and Pocklington | Conservative | 22,420 | Labour | 21,479 | 941 | 1.18% |
Dumfries and Galloway | SNP | 17,263 | Conservative | 16,295 | 968 | 1.23% |
Alloa and Grangemouth | SNP | 15,399 | Labour | 14,502 | 897 | 1.27% |
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Labour | 19,718 | SNP | 18,819 | 899 | 1.28% |
Melksham and Devizes | Conservative | 18,137 | Liberal Democrat | 17,166 | 971 | 1.32% |
Bridlington and The Wolds | Conservative | 15,280 | Labour | 14,246 | 1,034 | 1.39% |
The Wrekin | Labour | 18,518 | Conservative | 17,399 | 1,119 | 1.42% |
Sheffield Hallam | Labour | 23,209 | Liberal Democrat | 22,174 | 1,035 | 1.42% |
Havant | Conservative | 15,471 | Labour | 14,428 | 1,043 | 1.44% |
South Dorset | Labour | 17,002 | Conservative | 15,894 | 1,108 | 1.46% |
North East Hampshire | Conservative | 19,352 | Liberal Democrat | 18,188 | 1,164 | 1.51% |
Bromley and Biggin Hill | Labour | 20,313 | Conservative | 19,241 | 1,072 | 1.52% |
Ashfield | Reform | 12,071 | Labour | 10,979 | 1,092 | 1.58% |
Poole | Labour | 15,866 | Conservative | 14,712 | 1,154 | 1.59% |
Basildon and Billericay | Labour | 16,009 | Conservative | 14,783 | 1,226 | 1.59% |
Ely and East Cambridgeshire | Liberal Democrat | 16,529 | Conservative | 15,252 | 1,277 | 1.61% |
Grantham and Bourne | Conservative | 18,440 | Labour | 17,248 | 1,192 | 1.63% |
Melton and Syston | Labour | 18,916 | Conservative | 17,663 | 1,253 | 1.69% |
Bexhill and Battle | Labour | 17,377 | Conservative | 16,144 | 1,233 | 1.71% |
Horsham | Liberal Democrat | 19,737 | Conservative | 18,380 | 1,357 | 1.71% |
South West Hertfordshire | Conservative | 16,485 | Labour | 15,252 | 1,233 | 1.72% |
Faversham and Mid Kent | Labour | 17,353 | Conservative | 16,073 | 1,280 | 1.72% |
West Suffolk | Labour | 17,777 | Conservative | 16,430 | 1,347 | 1.75% |
Lagan Valley | DUP | 14,848 | Alliance | 13,395 | 1,453 | 1.77% |
North Bedfordshire | Conservative | 21,291 | Labour | 19,890 | 1,401 | 1.78% |
Farnham and Bordon | Liberal Democrat | 19,423 | Conservative | 18,073 | 1,350 | 1.78% |
Tewkesbury | Conservative | 16,213 | Liberal Democrat | 14,868 | 1,345 | 1.83% |
Kilmarnock and Loudoun | SNP | 19,876 | Labour | 18,486 | 1,390 | 1.86% |
North Northumberland | Labour | 19,708 | Conservative | 18,319 | 1,389 | 1.87% |
Beverley and Holderness | Labour | 16,901 | Conservative | 15,548 | 1,353 | 1.88% |
Old Bexley and Sidcup | Conservative | 18,597 | Labour | 17,203 | 1,394 | 1.90% |
Sutton Coldfield | Conservative | 20,242 | Labour | 18,790 | 1,452 | 1.96% |
Monmouthshire | Labour | 20,095 | Conservative | 18,618 | 1,477 | 1.97% |
Dundee Central | SNP | 21,461 | Labour | 19,986 | 1,475 | 1.99% |
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Labour | 19,220 | Conservative | 17,676 | 1,544 | 2.00% |
Ynys Mon | Plaid Cymru | 11,136 | Labour | 10,071 | 1,065 | 2.00% |
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | SNP | 13,051 | Labour | 11,611 | 1,440 | 2.05% |
South Northamptonshire | Conservative | 20,221 | Labour | 18,777 | 1,444 | 2.05% |
Bromsgrove | Conservative | 18,983 | Labour | 17,400 | 1,583 | 2.07% |
Newark | Labour | 21,586 | Conservative | 19,916 | 1,670 | 2.09% |
Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing
See also: Electoral Analysis