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VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 75 seats where the majority is forecast to be smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
Woking Conservative 16,020 Liberal Democrat 16,001 19 0.03%
West Dunbartonshire Labour 20,874 SNP 20,832 42 0.05%
South Dorset Conservative 19,880 Labour 19,831 49 0.07%
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,369 Liberal Democrat 16,278 91 0.13%
Selby Labour 19,143 Conservative 19,052 91 0.14%
Didcot and Wantage Conservative 17,670 Liberal Democrat 17,565 105 0.14%
Fylde Labour 21,582 Conservative 21,465 117 0.15%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 19,491 Conservative 19,367 124 0.16%
South Derbyshire Conservative 18,659 Labour 18,534 125 0.18%
Dunfermline and Dollar SNP 17,019 Labour 16,815 204 0.31%
Derbyshire Dales Conservative 21,636 Labour 21,397 239 0.33%
Lowestoft Labour 18,499 Conservative 18,254 245 0.34%
Aylesbury Labour 17,529 Conservative 17,284 245 0.35%
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 19,006 Conservative 18,721 285 0.38%
Dartford Labour 20,673 Conservative 20,374 299 0.41%
Amber Valley Conservative 19,515 Labour 19,177 338 0.49%
Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,586 Plaid Cymru 16,185 401 0.52%
Hertford and Stortford Labour 21,079 Conservative 20,675 404 0.53%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour 17,703 SNP 17,323 380 0.54%
Glasgow West Labour 15,307 SNP 14,979 328 0.55%
Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative 24,972 Labour 24,454 518 0.56%
Bicester and Woodstock Conservative 17,831 Labour 17,389 442 0.57%
Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 20,050 Conservative 19,611 439 0.60%
North East Hertfordshire Labour 21,173 Conservative 20,680 493 0.64%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 19,211 Liberal Democrat 18,736 475 0.68%
Edinburgh South West SNP 18,517 Labour 18,011 506 0.68%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Conservative 15,293 Liberal Democrat 14,789 504 0.70%
South Norfolk Conservative 17,226 Labour 16,778 448 0.73%
Portsmouth North Labour 19,355 Conservative 18,833 522 0.73%
Redditch Conservative 19,578 Labour 18,987 591 0.88%
North Bedfordshire Conservative 22,959 Labour 22,194 765 0.88%
Romford Conservative 20,006 Labour 19,354 652 0.89%
Folkestone and Hythe Conservative 18,921 Labour 18,269 652 0.92%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk SNP 20,285 Conservative 19,551 734 0.96%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 19,920 SNP 19,240 680 0.96%
Staffordshire Moorlands Conservative 21,629 Labour 20,874 755 1.02%
Isle of Wight East Labour 14,076 Conservative 13,497 579 1.04%
Isle of Wight West Labour 14,393 Conservative 13,800 593 1.04%
Rochester and Strood Labour 20,301 Conservative 19,440 861 1.13%
Taunton and Wellington Liberal Democrat 22,242 Conservative 21,334 908 1.13%
Aldershot Conservative 19,812 Labour 18,940 872 1.13%
Huntingdon Conservative 24,486 Labour 23,427 1,059 1.13%
Hitchin Conservative 17,074 Labour 16,243 831 1.24%
Sutton Coldfield Conservative 20,167 Labour 19,169 998 1.32%
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 16,513 Conservative 15,561 952 1.33%
Suffolk Coastal Conservative 19,632 Labour 18,635 997 1.34%
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein 22,646 UUP 21,590 1,056 1.39%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth Conservative 20,564 Labour 19,571 993 1.41%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP 19,630 Labour 18,607 1,023 1.42%
North West Leicestershire Conservative 21,887 Labour 20,775 1,112 1.46%
Wokingham Conservative 20,678 Liberal Democrat 19,424 1,254 1.51%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP 17,659 Labour 16,582 1,077 1.51%
Waveney Valley Conservative 24,056 Labour 22,722 1,334 1.54%
Congleton Labour 21,504 Conservative 20,362 1,142 1.55%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,460 Conservative 17,352 1,108 1.56%
Glasgow South Labour 17,874 SNP 16,822 1,052 1.58%
Harwich and North Essex Conservative 20,188 Labour 19,050 1,138 1.58%
Ribble Valley Labour 20,666 Conservative 19,493 1,173 1.61%
The Wrekin Conservative 21,842 Labour 20,633 1,209 1.63%
Tatton Labour 20,503 Conservative 19,245 1,258 1.63%
Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberal Democrat 19,514 Conservative 18,305 1,209 1.66%
Harlow Labour 21,418 Conservative 20,193 1,225 1.67%
Stourbridge Labour 22,831 Conservative 21,489 1,342 1.67%
Gillingham and Rainham Labour 18,368 Conservative 17,218 1,150 1.71%
Reigate Conservative 19,220 Labour 17,909 1,311 1.72%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 19,051 Labour 17,857 1,194 1.73%
Newark Conservative 22,959 Labour 21,508 1,451 1.82%
South West Hertfordshire Conservative 15,879 Labour 14,639 1,240 1.85%
Beverley and Holderness Conservative 19,917 Labour 18,589 1,328 1.87%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Conservative 16,959 Liberal Democrat 15,608 1,351 1.97%
Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative 18,141 Labour 16,562 1,579 2.03%
Kettering Labour 23,824 Conservative 22,141 1,683 2.05%
Edinburgh North and Leith SNP 16,253 Labour 14,922 1,331 2.07%
Central Devon Labour 21,746 Conservative 20,259 1,487 2.07%
Spelthorne Conservative 19,312 Labour 17,821 1,491 2.10%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

See also: Electoral Analysis

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