VoteClimate: Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 80 seats where the majority is forecast to smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 34.6% | Conservative: 24.4% | Reform: 14.7% | Liberal Democrat: 12.6% | Green: 6.9%

[Last updated: 11 August 2024]

Constituency	Winner		Second		Votes Required
Hendon	Labour	15,855	Conservative	15,840	15	0.02%
Poole	Labour	14,168	Conservative	14,150	18	0.02%
Basildon and Billericay	Conservative	12,905	Labour	12,885	20	0.03%
North West Cambridgeshire	Labour	14,785	Conservative	14,746	39	0.05%
Central Devon	Conservative	16,831	Labour	16,770	61	0.08%
Havant	Conservative	12,986	Labour	12,894	92	0.13%
South Basildon and East Thurrock	Reform	12,178	Labour	12,080	98	0.13%
Exmouth and Exeter East	Conservative	14,728	Labour	14,607	121	0.15%
Peterborough	Labour	13,418	Conservative	13,300	118	0.16%
Beverley and Holderness	Conservative	15,501	Labour	15,377	124	0.17%
Chelsea and Fulham	Labour	18,556	Conservative	18,404	152	0.19%
East Londonderry	DUP	11,506	Sinn Fein	11,327	179	0.24%
Bethnal Green and Stepney	Labour	15,896	Other	15,699	197	0.24%
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Labour	16,468	Conservative	16,254	214	0.30%
Forest of Dean	Labour	16,373	Conservative	16,095	278	0.38%
Bromley and Biggin Hill	Conservative	15,929	Labour	15,627	302	0.43%
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Labour	11,919	Conservative	11,564	355	0.45%
Derbyshire Dales	Labour	17,759	Conservative	17,409	350	0.48%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrat	17,127	Conservative	16,632	495	0.63%
Ilford North	Labour	15,647	Other	15,119	528	0.67%
Fylde	Conservative	15,917	Labour	15,356	561	0.73%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Labour	16,599	Conservative	16,012	587	0.79%
Aylesbury	Labour	15,081	Conservative	14,451	630	0.80%
North East Hampshire	Liberal Democrat	21,178	Conservative	20,544	634	0.82%
South West Norfolk	Labour	11,847	Conservative	11,217	630	0.84%
North Somerset	Labour	19,138	Conservative	18,499	639	0.86%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	Labour	14,976	Conservative	14,309	667	0.87%
Stoke-on-Trent South	Labour	14,221	Conservative	13,594	627	0.90%
Bradford West	Labour	11,724	Independent	11,017	707	0.91%
Dundee Central	SNP	15,544	Labour	14,869	675	0.91%
Broadland and Fakenham	Conservative	16,322	Labour	15,603	719	0.94%
Birmingham Yardley	Labour	11,275	Other	10,582	693	0.95%
Slough	Labour	14,666	Other	13,870	796	0.98%
Wyre Forest	Conservative	14,489	Labour	13,677	812	1.05%
Ribble Valley	Labour	18,177	Conservative	17,321	856	1.06%
Lichfield	Labour	17,232	Conservative	16,422	810	1.06%
Bracknell	Labour	14,783	Conservative	13,999	784	1.09%
Portsmouth North	Labour	14,495	Conservative	13,715	780	1.11%
Redditch	Labour	14,810	Conservative	14,021	789	1.11%
The Wrekin	Conservative	16,320	Labour	15,437	883	1.12%
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	SNP	15,581	Labour	14,722	859	1.13%
Pendle and Clitheroe	Labour	16,129	Conservative	15,227	902	1.14%
Earley and Woodley	Labour	18,209	Conservative	17,361	848	1.15%
Godalming and Ash	Conservative	23,293	Liberal Democrat	22,402	891	1.18%
Dumfries and Galloway	Conservative	13,527	SNP	12,597	930	1.18%
Ynys Mon	Plaid Cymru	10,590	Conservative	9,953	637	1.20%
Gordon and Buchan	Conservative	14,418	SNP	13,540	878	1.26%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP	14,961	Conservative	13,960	1,001	1.30%
North West Leicestershire	Labour	16,871	Conservative	15,859	1,012	1.30%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	SNP	13,455	Conservative	12,513	942	1.34%
South Dorset	Labour	15,659	Conservative	14,611	1,048	1.38%
North Antrim	Other	12,229	DUP	11,192	1,037	1.39%
Suffolk Coastal	Labour	15,672	Conservative	14,602	1,070	1.44%
Rother Valley	Labour	16,023	Conservative	15,025	998	1.44%
Harwich and North Essex	Conservative	16,522	Labour	15,360	1,162	1.52%
Tatton	Conservative	19,956	Labour	18,820	1,136	1.53%
Dartford	Labour	15,392	Conservative	14,200	1,192	1.58%
Clwyd North	Labour	14,794	Conservative	13,598	1,196	1.59%
Staffordshire Moorlands	Conservative	15,310	Labour	14,135	1,175	1.68%
Mid Bedfordshire	Conservative	16,912	Labour	15,591	1,321	1.75%
Hereford and South Herefordshire	Conservative	14,871	Labour	13,592	1,279	1.77%
Farnham and Bordon	Conservative	18,951	Liberal Democrat	17,602	1,349	1.78%
East Antrim	DUP	11,462	Alliance	10,156	1,306	1.78%
Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrat	21,442	Conservative	20,090	1,352	1.80%
East Hampshire	Conservative	18,509	Liberal Democrat	17,234	1,275	1.80%
Stirling and Strathallan	Labour	16,856	SNP	15,462	1,394	1.83%
Tamworth	Labour	15,338	Conservative	13,956	1,382	1.84%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	Labour	16,745	Conservative	15,293	1,452	1.85%
Bridgwater	Conservative	12,281	Labour	10,932	1,349	1.88%
Huntingdon	Conservative	18,257	Labour	16,758	1,499	1.90%
Birmingham Perry Barr	Other	14,265	Labour	12,796	1,469	1.92%
Great Yarmouth	Reform	14,385	Labour	12,959	1,426	1.94%
Faversham and Mid Kent	Conservative	14,816	Labour	13,347	1,469	1.98%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire	Labour	16,273	Conservative	14,912	1,361	1.98%
Rochdale	Labour	13,027	Other	11,587	1,440	1.99%
Romford	Conservative	15,339	Labour	13,876	1,463	2.01%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	Liberal Democrat	13,736	Conservative	12,264	1,472	2.01%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North	Labour	10,655	Other	9,089	1,566	2.01%
Skipton and Ripon	Conservative	18,833	Labour	17,183	1,650	2.08%
Llanelli	Labour	12,751	Reform	11,247	1,504	2.10%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

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