VoteClimate: Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Labour's majority at the next election is predicted to consist of the following 69 seats, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election ordered by the swing we predict will be required to change the result in the seat.

If VoteClimate can recruit enough members to swing these sets, we will have great influence over the Labour Party's climate policies.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Summary:

Number of Seats Winning Party Runner-up
52 Labour Conservative
13 Labour SNP
2 Labour Plaid Cymru
1 Labour Liberal Democrat
1 Labour Other

All seats:

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
1 West Dunbartonshire Labour 20,871 SNP 20,829 42 0.05%
2 Selby Labour 19,158 Conservative 19,063 95 0.14%
3 Fylde Labour 21,610 Conservative 21,491 119 0.16%
4 Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 19,486 Conservative 19,362 124 0.16%
5 Lowestoft Labour 18,505 Conservative 18,259 246 0.35%
6 Aylesbury Labour 17,450 Conservative 17,196 254 0.36%
7 Dartford Labour 20,653 Conservative 20,353 300 0.41%
8 Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,593 Plaid Cymru 16,185 408 0.53%
9 Hertford and Stortford Labour 21,081 Conservative 20,677 404 0.53%
10 Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour 17,682 SNP 17,306 376 0.54%
11 Glasgow West Labour 15,316 SNP 14,987 329 0.55%
12 Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 20,067 Conservative 19,627 440 0.60%
13 North East Hertfordshire Labour 21,177 Conservative 20,682 495 0.64%
14 Portsmouth North Labour 19,355 Conservative 18,834 521 0.73%
15 Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 19,917 SNP 19,237 680 0.97%
16 Isle of Wight East Labour 14,060 Conservative 13,484 576 1.03%
17 Isle of Wight West Labour 14,403 Conservative 13,812 591 1.03%
18 Rochester and Strood Labour 20,291 Conservative 19,432 859 1.12%
19 Congleton Labour 21,515 Conservative 20,371 1,144 1.55%
20 Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,458 Conservative 17,349 1,109 1.57%
21 Glasgow South Labour 17,873 SNP 16,822 1,051 1.58%
22 Ribble Valley Labour 20,661 Conservative 19,495 1,166 1.60%
23 Tatton Labour 20,512 Conservative 19,251 1,261 1.64%
24 Harlow Labour 21,415 Conservative 20,190 1,225 1.67%
25 Stourbridge Labour 22,853 Conservative 21,510 1,343 1.67%
26 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 18,372 Conservative 17,223 1,149 1.71%
27 Kettering Labour 23,789 Conservative 22,118 1,671 2.03%
28 Central Devon Labour 21,742 Conservative 20,256 1,486 2.07%
29 Gravesham Labour 21,364 Conservative 19,799 1,565 2.14%
30 Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Labour 20,646 Conservative 19,063 1,583 2.15%
31 Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 18,050 Conservative 16,539 1,511 2.21%
32 Dudley Labour 19,878 Conservative 18,286 1,592 2.22%
33 Weston-super-Mare Labour 17,341 Conservative 15,925 1,416 2.27%
34 Banbury Labour 17,312 Conservative 15,867 1,445 2.28%
35 Mansfield Labour 23,273 Conservative 21,441 1,832 2.47%
36 Na h-Eileanan an Iar Labour 6,186 SNP 5,642 544 2.58%
37 Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour 22,982 Conservative 20,839 2,143 2.59%
38 Stafford Labour 22,994 Conservative 21,039 1,955 2.62%
39 Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour 24,544 SNP 22,217 2,327 2.63%
40 Stoke-on-Trent South Labour 17,649 Conservative 15,949 1,700 2.75%
41 Herne Bay and Sandwich Labour 22,671 Conservative 20,471 2,200 2.87%
42 Southend West and Leigh Labour 22,453 Conservative 20,329 2,124 2.87%
43 Mid Derbyshire Labour 20,439 Conservative 18,412 2,027 2.95%
44 Sherwood Forest Labour 23,122 Conservative 20,872 2,250 2.98%
45 Forest of Dean Labour 22,483 Conservative 20,300 2,183 3.06%
46 Hemel Hempstead Labour 18,647 Conservative 16,635 2,012 3.09%
47 Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Labour 17,946 Conservative 15,632 2,314 3.10%
48 North Somerset Labour 21,628 Conservative 19,343 2,285 3.12%
49 St Austell and Newquay Labour 21,328 Conservative 18,941 2,387 3.22%
50 Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour 17,788 SNP 15,711 2,077 3.23%
51 Glasgow East Labour 14,976 SNP 13,029 1,947 3.30%
52 Glasgow North Labour 18,486 SNP 16,038 2,448 3.51%
53 Glasgow South West Labour 19,065 SNP 16,477 2,588 3.53%
54 Worthing West Labour 20,871 Conservative 18,320 2,551 3.57%
55 Finchley and Golders Green Labour 20,302 Liberal Democrat 17,483 2,819 3.62%
56 Bassetlaw Labour 20,163 Conservative 17,350 2,813 3.70%
57 Burton and Uttoxeter Labour 21,986 Conservative 19,219 2,767 3.78%
58 Swindon North Labour 22,440 Conservative 19,602 2,838 3.78%
59 Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Labour 22,288 Conservative 19,250 3,038 3.86%
60 Basingstoke Labour 17,213 Conservative 14,724 2,489 3.97%
61 Southend East and Rochford Labour 21,371 Conservative 18,268 3,103 4.13%
62 Nuneaton Labour 21,187 Conservative 18,195 2,992 4.26%
63 Halesowen Labour 20,909 Conservative 17,848 3,061 4.32%
64 North Northumberland Labour 20,628 Conservative 17,199 3,429 4.44%
65 Airdrie and Shotts Labour 17,720 SNP 14,853 2,867 4.48%
66 Plymouth Moor View Labour 21,239 Conservative 17,590 3,649 5.01%
67 Ashfield Labour 13,991 Other 10,728 3,263 5.03%
68 Glasgow North East Labour 27,797 SNP 22,367 5,430 5.17%
69 Caerfyrddin Labour 19,488 Plaid Cymru 15,461 4,027 5.43%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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