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VoteClimate: Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Labour's majority at the next election is predicted to consist of the following 69 seats, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election ordered by the swing we predict will be required to change the result in the seat.

If VoteClimate can recruit enough members to swing these sets, we will have great influence over the Labour Party's climate policies.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 44% | Conservative: 27% | Liberal Democrat: 11.3% | Green: 6.8% | Reform/Brexit: 6.1%

[Last updated: September 2023]

Summary:

Number of Seats Winning Party Runner-up
52 Labour Conservative
13 Labour SNP
2 Labour Plaid Cymru
1 Labour Liberal Democrat
1 Labour Other

All seats:

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
1 West Dunbartonshire Labour 20,874 SNP 20,832 42 0.05%
2 Selby Labour 19,143 Conservative 19,052 91 0.14%
3 Fylde Labour 21,582 Conservative 21,465 117 0.15%
4 Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 19,491 Conservative 19,367 124 0.16%
5 Lowestoft Labour 18,499 Conservative 18,254 245 0.34%
6 Aylesbury Labour 17,529 Conservative 17,284 245 0.35%
7 Dartford Labour 20,673 Conservative 20,374 299 0.41%
8 Ceredigion Preseli Labour 16,586 Plaid Cymru 16,185 401 0.52%
9 Hertford and Stortford Labour 21,079 Conservative 20,675 404 0.53%
10 Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour 17,703 SNP 17,323 380 0.54%
11 Glasgow West Labour 15,307 SNP 14,979 328 0.55%
12 Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 20,050 Conservative 19,611 439 0.60%
13 North East Hertfordshire Labour 21,173 Conservative 20,680 493 0.64%
14 Portsmouth North Labour 19,355 Conservative 18,833 522 0.73%
15 Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 19,920 SNP 19,240 680 0.96%
16 Isle of Wight East Labour 14,076 Conservative 13,497 579 1.04%
17 Isle of Wight West Labour 14,393 Conservative 13,800 593 1.04%
18 Rochester and Strood Labour 20,301 Conservative 19,440 861 1.13%
19 Congleton Labour 21,504 Conservative 20,362 1,142 1.55%
20 Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Labour 18,460 Conservative 17,352 1,108 1.56%
21 Glasgow South Labour 17,874 SNP 16,822 1,052 1.58%
22 Ribble Valley Labour 20,666 Conservative 19,493 1,173 1.61%
23 Tatton Labour 20,503 Conservative 19,245 1,258 1.63%
24 Harlow Labour 21,418 Conservative 20,193 1,225 1.67%
25 Stourbridge Labour 22,831 Conservative 21,489 1,342 1.67%
26 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 18,368 Conservative 17,218 1,150 1.71%
27 Kettering Labour 23,824 Conservative 22,141 1,683 2.05%
28 Central Devon Labour 21,746 Conservative 20,259 1,487 2.07%
29 Gravesham Labour 21,364 Conservative 19,800 1,564 2.14%
30 Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Labour 20,630 Conservative 19,046 1,584 2.15%
31 Dudley Labour 19,901 Conservative 18,310 1,591 2.21%
32 Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 18,049 Conservative 16,519 1,530 2.24%
33 Weston-super-Mare Labour 17,329 Conservative 15,916 1,413 2.26%
34 Banbury Labour 17,279 Conservative 15,838 1,441 2.27%
35 Mansfield Labour 23,281 Conservative 21,446 1,835 2.47%
36 Na h-Eileanan an Iar Labour 6,189 SNP 5,642 547 2.59%
37 Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour 22,977 Conservative 20,833 2,144 2.59%
38 Stafford Labour 22,987 Conservative 21,030 1,957 2.63%
39 Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour 24,553 SNP 22,220 2,333 2.63%
40 Stoke-on-Trent South Labour 17,648 Conservative 15,944 1,704 2.75%
41 Sherwood Forest Labour 22,145 Conservative 19,986 2,159 2.85%
42 Herne Bay and Sandwich Labour 22,673 Conservative 20,470 2,203 2.87%
43 Southend West and Leigh Labour 22,453 Conservative 20,329 2,124 2.87%
44 Mid Derbyshire Labour 20,444 Conservative 18,417 2,027 2.95%
45 Forest of Dean Labour 22,484 Conservative 20,302 2,182 3.05%
46 Hemel Hempstead Labour 18,659 Conservative 16,644 2,015 3.09%
47 Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Labour 17,926 Conservative 15,616 2,310 3.10%
48 North Somerset Labour 21,630 Conservative 19,344 2,286 3.13%
49 Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour 17,784 SNP 15,708 2,076 3.23%
50 St Austell and Newquay Labour 21,343 Conservative 18,946 2,397 3.23%
51 Glasgow East Labour 14,987 SNP 13,039 1,948 3.30%
52 Finchley and Golders Green Labour 19,498 Liberal Democrat 16,789 2,709 3.48%
53 Glasgow North Labour 18,491 SNP 16,042 2,449 3.51%
54 Glasgow South West Labour 19,060 SNP 16,472 2,588 3.53%
55 Worthing West Labour 20,854 Conservative 18,309 2,545 3.56%
56 Bassetlaw Labour 20,166 Conservative 17,355 2,811 3.69%
57 Burton and Uttoxeter Labour 21,972 Conservative 19,205 2,767 3.78%
58 Swindon North Labour 22,442 Conservative 19,604 2,838 3.78%
59 Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Labour 22,288 Conservative 19,253 3,035 3.86%
60 Basingstoke Labour 17,213 Conservative 14,727 2,486 3.97%
61 Southend East and Rochford Labour 21,375 Conservative 18,272 3,103 4.13%
62 Nuneaton Labour 21,184 Conservative 18,195 2,989 4.26%
63 Halesowen Labour 20,914 Conservative 17,851 3,063 4.32%
64 North Northumberland Labour 20,642 Conservative 17,209 3,433 4.44%
65 Airdrie and Shotts Labour 17,731 SNP 14,864 2,867 4.48%
66 Plymouth Moor View Labour 21,237 Conservative 17,590 3,647 5.00%
67 Ashfield Labour 13,987 Other 10,726 3,261 5.03%
68 Glasgow North East Labour 27,793 SNP 22,366 5,427 5.17%
69 Caerfyrddin Labour 19,487 Plaid Cymru 15,459 4,028 5.43%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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