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VoteClimate: Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

The most marginal 193 seats that will make up Labour's forecast majority at the next election, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election, are listed below ordered by the swing we predict will be required to change the result in the seat.

If VoteClimate can recruit enough members to swing these sets, we will have great influence over the Labour Party's climate policies.

Vote shares (GB): Conservative: 26% | Labour: 25.5% | Reform: 21.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.7% | Green: 8%

[Last updated: 31 December 2024]

Summary:

Number of Seats Winning Party Runner-up
83 Labour Reform
63 Labour Conservative
27 Labour SNP
9 Labour Other
8 Labour Green
2 Labour Liberal Democrat
1 Labour Plaid Cymru

All seats:

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
1 Blackpool South Labour 12,864 Reform 12,857 7 0.01%
2 Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour 15,738 Conservative 15,728 10 0.01%
3 Scarborough and Whitby Labour 13,217 Conservative 13,187 30 0.04%
4 Glasgow South Labour 13,939 SNP 13,869 70 0.10%
5 Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour 11,206 Reform 11,128 78 0.11%
6 Huddersfield Labour 11,161 Green 11,042 119 0.15%
7 Wellingborough and Rushden Labour 13,203 Conservative 13,084 119 0.15%
8 Rossendale and Darwen Labour 13,607 Conservative 13,490 117 0.16%
9 Preston Labour 10,268 Other 10,091 177 0.23%
10 Dagenham and Rainham Labour 12,417 Reform 12,242 175 0.23%
11 Glasgow North Labour 11,563 SNP 11,403 160 0.24%
12 Bassetlaw Labour 13,786 Conservative 13,593 193 0.25%
13 South Shields Labour 11,289 Reform 11,115 174 0.25%
14 Basingstoke Labour 15,678 Conservative 15,478 200 0.25%
15 Bradford East Labour 10,443 Other 10,235 208 0.28%
16 Glasgow East Labour 12,268 SNP 12,053 215 0.31%
17 Bolton South and Walkden Labour 11,274 Reform 11,008 266 0.33%
18 Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 11,907 Reform 11,677 230 0.34%
19 Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour 12,663 Reform 12,421 242 0.35%
20 Plymouth Moor View Labour 13,183 Conservative 12,907 276 0.37%
21 Ashton-under-Lyne Labour 11,728 Reform 11,438 290 0.41%
22 Bishop Auckland Labour 12,746 Reform 12,401 345 0.49%
23 Caerphilly Labour 10,769 Reform 10,407 362 0.50%
24 Barnsley North Labour 14,256 Reform 13,833 423 0.54%
25 Southport Labour 12,776 Conservative 12,243 533 0.72%
26 South Ribble Labour 14,855 Conservative 14,311 544 0.74%
27 Birmingham Northfield Labour 11,097 Reform 10,544 553 0.75%
28 Telford Labour 13,718 Reform 13,164 554 0.75%
29 Wolverhampton North East Labour 10,706 Reform 10,156 550 0.78%
30 Erewash Labour 12,815 Reform 12,201 614 0.86%
31 Bolsover Labour 12,810 Reform 12,146 664 0.86%
32 Bangor Aberconwy Labour 10,223 Conservative 9,608 615 0.87%
33 Harrow West Labour 14,939 Conservative 14,222 717 0.90%
34 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Labour 11,613 SNP 10,969 644 0.92%
35 Bristol East Labour 16,889 Green 16,180 709 0.93%
36 Kilmarnock and Loudoun Labour 15,044 SNP 14,294 750 1.00%
37 Falkirk Labour 14,457 SNP 13,685 772 1.05%
38 Birmingham Erdington Labour 11,103 Reform 10,275 828 1.07%
39 Leigh and Atherton Labour 15,203 Reform 14,347 856 1.07%
40 Rhondda and Ogmore Labour 13,070 Reform 12,187 883 1.19%
41 Ilford South Labour 12,352 Other 11,385 967 1.19%
42 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Labour 11,953 Reform 11,030 923 1.24%
43 Torfaen Labour 11,385 Reform 10,465 920 1.28%
44 Stockton North Labour 12,940 Reform 12,027 913 1.30%
45 Alyn and Deeside Labour 13,790 Reform 12,767 1,023 1.35%
46 Bury North Labour 14,737 Conservative 13,662 1,075 1.38%
47 Hartlepool Labour 12,426 Reform 11,433 993 1.39%
48 East Thanet Labour 12,686 Reform 11,602 1,084 1.45%
49 Glasgow North East Labour 12,361 SNP 11,302 1,059 1.46%
50 Milton Keynes Central Labour 15,127 Conservative 13,896 1,231 1.52%
51 Blyth and Ashington Labour 15,288 Reform 14,089 1,199 1.57%
52 Hitchin Labour 17,340 Conservative 16,114 1,226 1.62%
53 Wrexham Labour 11,766 Conservative 10,620 1,146 1.63%
54 High Peak Labour 17,023 Conservative 15,798 1,225 1.65%
55 Croydon East Labour 13,878 Conservative 12,610 1,268 1.66%
56 Stevenage Labour 13,215 Conservative 11,918 1,297 1.83%
57 Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Labour 13,914 Reform 12,589 1,325 1.83%
58 Newport West and Islwyn Labour 13,025 Reform 11,567 1,458 1.92%
59 Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 9,982 Other 8,494 1,488 1.92%
60 Pontypridd Labour 12,147 Reform 10,667 1,480 1.95%
61 Bridgend Labour 12,305 Reform 10,852 1,453 1.99%
62 Southampton Itchen Labour 11,786 Conservative 10,423 1,363 1.99%
63 Worcester Labour 13,870 Conservative 12,373 1,497 2.00%
64 Wigan Labour 14,769 Reform 13,049 1,720 2.22%
65 Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour 14,469 Reform 12,900 1,569 2.23%
66 Warrington North Labour 14,194 Reform 12,609 1,585 2.25%
67 Ipswich Labour 14,336 Conservative 12,630 1,706 2.26%
68 West Dunbartonshire Labour 15,380 SNP 13,753 1,627 2.36%
69 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour 13,543 Reform 11,813 1,730 2.36%
70 Stalybridge and Hyde Labour 12,281 Reform 10,530 1,751 2.42%
71 Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour 14,396 Reform 12,683 1,713 2.43%
72 Macclesfield Labour 18,696 Conservative 16,859 1,837 2.45%
73 Edinburgh South West Labour 14,874 SNP 12,964 1,910 2.59%
74 Wakefield and Rothwell Labour 13,362 Reform 11,417 1,945 2.59%
75 Truro and Falmouth Labour 15,518 Conservative 13,612 1,906 2.61%
76 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Labour 15,595 SNP 13,712 1,883 2.65%
77 Camborne and Redruth Labour 14,423 Conservative 12,453 1,970 2.65%
78 Coatbridge and Bellshill Labour 15,374 SNP 13,397 1,977 2.72%
79 Wolverhampton West Labour 14,565 Conservative 12,434 2,131 2.74%
80 Newport East Labour 12,282 Reform 10,160 2,122 2.77%
81 Alloa and Grangemouth Labour 14,252 SNP 12,280 1,972 2.79%
82 Sheffield Hallam Labour 19,468 Liberal Democrat 17,412 2,056 2.82%
83 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Labour 15,616 SNP 13,541 2,075 2.90%
84 Shipley Labour 16,397 Conservative 14,235 2,162 2.92%
85 Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 15,077 SNP 13,016 2,061 2.94%
86 Leeds South West and Morley Labour 13,298 Reform 11,144 2,154 3.00%
87 Swansea West Labour 11,041 Reform 8,800 2,241 3.02%
88 Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Labour 9,222 Other 6,892 2,330 3.03%
89 Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour 13,772 Reform 11,611 2,161 3.09%
90 Bristol South Labour 13,877 Green 11,520 2,357 3.12%
91 Calder Valley Labour 16,598 Conservative 14,148 2,450 3.17%
92 Edinburgh North and Leith Labour 16,704 SNP 14,203 2,501 3.19%
93 Glasgow West Labour 14,831 SNP 12,626 2,205 3.19%
94 Luton North Labour 10,867 Other 8,405 2,462 3.29%
95 Colchester Labour 14,057 Conservative 11,434 2,623 3.33%
96 York Outer Labour 17,480 Conservative 14,938 2,542 3.33%
97 Eltham and Chislehurst Labour 15,097 Conservative 12,625 2,472 3.34%
98 Wolverhampton South East Labour 12,863 Reform 10,266 2,597 3.35%
99 Doncaster Central Labour 13,259 Reform 10,751 2,508 3.36%
100 Crewe and Nantwich Labour 15,681 Reform 13,081 2,600 3.37%
101 Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour 12,340 Reform 9,679 2,661 3.54%
102 Cardiff West Labour 12,128 Plaid Cymru 9,423 2,705 3.57%
103 Broxtowe Labour 14,590 Conservative 12,067 2,523 3.58%
104 Worsley and Eccles Labour 15,409 Reform 12,455 2,954 3.76%
105 Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour 12,494 Reform 9,703 2,791 3.78%
106 Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour 15,275 SNP 12,531 2,744 3.82%
107 Hastings and Rye Labour 14,296 Conservative 11,372 2,924 3.85%
108 Central Ayrshire Labour 14,269 SNP 11,570 2,699 3.89%
109 Canterbury Labour 14,581 Conservative 11,785 2,796 3.93%
110 West Bromwich Labour 12,780 Reform 9,848 2,932 3.96%
111 Bradford West Labour 8,459 Reform 5,365 3,094 3.97%
112 East Worthing and Shoreham Labour 16,684 Conservative 13,700 2,984 3.99%
113 Blaydon and Consett Labour 16,177 Reform 13,358 2,819 4.00%
114 Feltham and Heston Labour 12,077 Conservative 8,952 3,125 4.06%
115 Mid Cheshire Labour 13,902 Reform 11,027 2,875 4.08%
116 Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Labour 14,871 SNP 11,876 2,995 4.17%
117 Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour 17,289 Conservative 14,042 3,247 4.19%
118 Wirral West Labour 17,520 Conservative 14,328 3,192 4.38%
119 Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour 14,305 Reform 10,928 3,377 4.40%
120 Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour 14,075 Reform 10,749 3,326 4.42%
121 Lincoln Labour 13,886 Reform 10,680 3,206 4.43%
122 Selby Labour 17,239 Conservative 13,735 3,504 4.49%
123 Gower Labour 15,399 Reform 11,979 3,420 4.49%
124 East Renfrewshire Labour 17,293 SNP 13,931 3,362 4.51%
125 Swindon South Labour 16,496 Conservative 13,204 3,292 4.54%
126 Midlothian Labour 17,567 SNP 14,182 3,385 4.60%
127 Aberafan Maesteg Labour 13,718 Reform 10,346 3,372 4.65%
128 Lancaster and Wyre Labour 14,557 Conservative 10,993 3,564 4.77%
129 Airdrie and Shotts Labour 15,299 SNP 11,950 3,349 4.77%
130 Derby North Labour 14,055 Conservative 10,610 3,445 4.79%
131 Northampton North Labour 13,691 Conservative 10,063 3,628 4.80%
132 Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 12,517 Conservative 9,035 3,482 4.85%
133 Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 12,709 Liberal Democrat 9,317 3,392 4.88%
134 Leicester West Labour 11,903 Reform 8,253 3,650 4.93%
135 Bury South Labour 14,548 Conservative 10,831 3,717 4.93%
136 Brentford and Isleworth Labour 15,074 Conservative 11,151 3,923 4.94%
137 Stroud Labour 19,379 Conservative 15,509 3,870 4.97%
138 Leeds East Labour 14,132 Reform 10,328 3,804 4.99%
139 Dunfermline and Dollar Labour 16,409 SNP 12,756 3,653 5.02%
140 Chesterfield Labour 14,625 Reform 11,016 3,609 5.04%
141 Coventry North West Labour 14,928 Reform 11,115 3,813 5.08%
142 East Kilbride and Strathaven Labour 18,069 SNP 14,153 3,916 5.12%
143 Cramlington and Killingworth Labour 16,991 Reform 12,980 4,011 5.26%
144 St Helens North Labour 16,384 Reform 12,395 3,989 5.28%
145 Blackley and Middleton South Labour 13,022 Reform 9,162 3,860 5.34%
146 Bathgate and Linlithgow Labour 15,876 SNP 12,017 3,859 5.35%
147 Rutherglen Labour 17,510 SNP 13,494 4,016 5.53%
148 Barking Labour 12,256 Reform 7,843 4,413 5.53%
149 Norwich North Labour 15,697 Reform 11,616 4,081 5.54%
150 Bedford Labour 13,851 Conservative 9,799 4,052 5.59%
151 Cardiff East Labour 11,805 Reform 7,729 4,076 5.59%
152 Coventry South Labour 15,477 Conservative 11,184 4,293 5.63%
153 Manchester Rusholme Labour 11,658 Green 7,500 4,158 5.73%
154 Leeds Central and Headingley Labour 12,135 Green 8,079 4,056 5.75%
155 City of Durham Labour 14,505 Reform 10,429 4,076 5.77%
156 Warrington South Labour 17,576 Conservative 13,009 4,567 5.83%
157 Coventry East Labour 13,995 Reform 9,544 4,451 5.87%
158 West Ham and Beckton Labour 12,476 Other 7,830 4,646 5.88%
159 Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour 16,218 Reform 11,689 4,529 5.94%
160 Stratford and Bow Labour 14,481 Other 9,646 4,835 5.99%
161 Shrewsbury Labour 17,266 Conservative 12,670 4,596 6.00%
162 Birmingham Selly Oak Labour 13,127 Reform 8,557 4,570 6.04%
163 Smethwick Labour 12,868 Reform 8,346 4,522 6.21%
164 Southampton Test Labour 12,013 Reform 7,868 4,145 6.33%
165 St Helens South and Whiston Labour 14,512 Reform 9,950 4,562 6.37%
166 Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour 17,084 SNP 12,264 4,820 6.39%
167 Whitehaven and Workington Labour 17,082 Reform 12,264 4,818 6.58%
168 Gedling Labour 17,683 Conservative 12,551 5,132 6.66%
169 Sheffield Central Labour 13,846 Green 9,789 4,057 6.70%
170 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour 15,882 Reform 10,704 5,178 6.88%
171 Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour 14,550 Conservative 9,799 4,751 6.91%
172 Nottingham South Labour 11,844 Reform 7,398 4,446 6.92%
173 Beckenham and Penge Labour 19,642 Conservative 14,161 5,481 7.10%
174 Cardiff North Labour 15,706 Conservative 10,632 5,074 7.10%
175 Doncaster North Labour 13,750 Conservative 8,737 5,013 7.19%
176 Warwick and Leamington Labour 18,259 Conservative 12,762 5,497 7.21%
177 Leeds North West Labour 17,304 Conservative 12,090 5,214 7.28%
178 Battersea Labour 17,521 Conservative 12,100 5,421 7.44%
179 Leeds West and Pudsey Labour 14,487 Reform 9,219 5,268 7.52%
180 Putney Labour 18,382 Conservative 12,840 5,542 7.62%
181 West Lancashire Labour 17,066 Reform 11,331 5,735 7.74%
182 Portsmouth South Labour 14,357 Reform 8,625 5,732 7.78%
183 Chester North and Neston Labour 16,998 Conservative 11,505 5,493 7.82%
184 Cardiff South and Penarth Labour 13,145 Reform 7,325 5,820 7.97%
185 Gorton and Denton Labour 14,271 Reform 7,961 6,310 8.25%
186 Bristol North East Labour 14,349 Green 8,502 5,847 8.34%
187 Enfield North Labour 16,318 Conservative 9,666 6,652 8.44%
188 Hayes and Harlington Labour 15,771 Conservative 9,425 6,346 8.53%
189 Salford Labour 16,310 Reform 9,144 7,166 8.57%
190 Holborn and St Pancras Labour 14,521 Other 8,305 6,216 8.72%
191 Reading Central Labour 16,405 Conservative 9,983 6,422 8.73%
192 Exeter Labour 13,757 Reform 7,832 5,925 8.73%
193 Poplar and Limehouse Labour 13,941 Green 6,582 7,359 8.75%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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