The VoteClimate website uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
VoteClimate: Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Labour's majority at the next election is predicted to consist of the following 115 seats, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election ordered by the swing we predict will be required to change the result in the seat.

If VoteClimate can recruit enough members to swing these sets, we will have great influence over the Labour Party's climate policies.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 45% | Conservative: 22% | Reform: 13% | Liberal Democrat: 8.5% | Green: 6%

[Last updated: 24 June 2024]

Summary:

Number of Seats Winning Party Runner-up
95 Labour Conservative
17 Labour SNP
1 Labour Liberal Democrat
1 Labour Plaid Cymru
1 Labour Reform

All seats:

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
1 Lichfield Labour 20,417 Conservative 20,414 3 0.00%
2 Hereford and South Herefordshire Labour 15,986 Conservative 15,970 16 0.02%
3 Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Labour 17,677 Conservative 17,619 58 0.07%
4 Tatton Labour 19,886 Conservative 19,679 207 0.28%
5 Romford Labour 17,381 Conservative 17,165 216 0.30%
6 Suffolk Coastal Labour 17,823 Conservative 17,575 248 0.33%
7 Broxbourne Labour 17,129 Conservative 16,718 411 0.55%
8 Finchley and Golders Green Labour 18,003 Conservative 17,450 553 0.71%
9 South West Wiltshire Labour 14,814 Conservative 14,267 547 0.75%
10 South West Norfolk Labour 15,366 Conservative 14,689 677 0.91%
11 Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour 24,113 SNP 23,264 849 1.11%
12 Wyre Forest Labour 18,279 Conservative 17,388 891 1.15%
13 Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Labour 19,718 SNP 18,819 899 1.28%
14 The Wrekin Labour 18,518 Conservative 17,399 1,119 1.42%
15 Sheffield Hallam Labour 23,209 Liberal Democrat 22,174 1,035 1.42%
16 South Dorset Labour 17,002 Conservative 15,894 1,108 1.46%
17 Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour 20,313 Conservative 19,241 1,072 1.52%
18 Poole Labour 15,866 Conservative 14,712 1,154 1.59%
19 Basildon and Billericay Labour 16,009 Conservative 14,783 1,226 1.59%
20 Melton and Syston Labour 18,916 Conservative 17,663 1,253 1.69%
21 Bexhill and Battle Labour 17,377 Conservative 16,144 1,233 1.71%
22 Faversham and Mid Kent Labour 17,353 Conservative 16,073 1,280 1.72%
23 West Suffolk Labour 17,777 Conservative 16,430 1,347 1.75%
24 North Northumberland Labour 19,708 Conservative 18,319 1,389 1.87%
25 Beverley and Holderness Labour 16,901 Conservative 15,548 1,353 1.88%
26 Monmouthshire Labour 20,095 Conservative 18,618 1,477 1.97%
27 Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Labour 19,220 Conservative 17,676 1,544 2.00%
28 Newark Labour 21,586 Conservative 19,916 1,670 2.09%
29 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Labour 18,269 Conservative 16,629 1,640 2.13%
30 Southend West and Leigh Labour 17,605 Conservative 15,999 1,606 2.14%
31 Edinburgh North and Leith Labour 18,542 SNP 16,805 1,737 2.22%
32 Croydon South Labour 21,313 Conservative 19,652 1,661 2.22%
33 Derbyshire Dales Labour 20,641 Conservative 18,960 1,681 2.29%
34 Central Devon Labour 19,592 Conservative 17,850 1,742 2.31%
35 North West Cambridgeshire Labour 15,554 Conservative 13,790 1,764 2.32%
36 Tamworth Labour 17,269 Conservative 15,451 1,818 2.42%
37 Spelthorne Labour 16,448 Conservative 14,630 1,818 2.46%
38 South Basildon and East Thurrock Labour 14,983 Conservative 13,178 1,805 2.48%
39 South Norfolk Labour 16,580 Conservative 14,554 2,026 2.74%
40 Livingston Labour 16,943 SNP 14,794 2,149 2.75%
41 Harwich and North Essex Labour 18,620 Conservative 16,515 2,105 2.76%
42 Ribble Valley Labour 19,971 Conservative 17,608 2,363 2.94%
43 Mid Leicestershire Labour 20,751 Conservative 18,521 2,230 2.94%
44 North West Leicestershire Labour 19,426 Conservative 17,136 2,290 2.95%
45 Huntingdon Labour 23,505 Conservative 21,165 2,340 2.96%
46 Sittingbourne and Sheppey Labour 17,259 Conservative 14,888 2,371 3.00%
47 Rugby Labour 19,482 Conservative 17,222 2,260 3.02%
48 Chatham and Aylesford Labour 16,924 Conservative 14,487 2,437 3.24%
49 Aldershot Labour 19,210 Conservative 16,569 2,641 3.36%
50 Isle of Wight East Labour 12,286 Conservative 10,396 1,890 3.38%
51 Aylesbury Labour 17,092 Conservative 14,410 2,682 3.39%
52 Mid Bedfordshire Labour 18,085 Conservative 15,501 2,584 3.42%
53 Congleton Labour 20,133 Conservative 17,624 2,509 3.44%
54 Reading West and Mid Berkshire Labour 17,880 Conservative 15,475 2,405 3.50%
55 St Austell and Newquay Labour 18,239 Conservative 15,561 2,678 3.52%
56 Bathgate and Linlithgow Labour 19,350 SNP 16,747 2,603 3.61%
57 Kettering Labour 21,941 Conservative 18,998 2,943 3.71%
58 Hornchurch and Upminster Labour 19,201 Conservative 16,353 2,848 3.78%
59 Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour 19,990 SNP 17,324 2,666 3.80%
60 Mid and South Pembrokeshire Labour 19,435 Conservative 16,375 3,060 3.87%
61 Great Yarmouth Labour 15,594 Conservative 12,611 2,983 4.07%
62 Broadland and Fakenham Labour 20,478 Conservative 17,330 3,148 4.10%
63 East Kilbride and Strathaven Labour 21,425 SNP 18,158 3,267 4.28%
64 Hertford and Stortford Labour 21,672 Conservative 18,220 3,452 4.37%
65 Glasgow South Labour 19,412 SNP 16,308 3,104 4.42%
66 Harrow East Labour 21,464 Conservative 18,028 3,436 4.49%
67 South Derbyshire Labour 17,436 Conservative 14,123 3,313 4.49%
68 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Labour 18,865 SNP 15,594 3,271 4.57%
69 Stockton West Labour 17,332 Conservative 14,039 3,293 4.58%
70 Ashford Labour 18,132 Conservative 14,635 3,497 4.59%
71 Northampton South Labour 14,572 Conservative 11,270 3,302 4.69%
72 Gravesham Labour 18,611 Conservative 15,127 3,484 4.77%
73 Folkestone and Hythe Labour 16,761 Conservative 13,400 3,361 4.80%
74 North East Hertfordshire Labour 22,197 Conservative 18,454 3,743 4.82%
75 Glasgow West Labour 16,726 SNP 13,332 3,394 4.92%
76 Uxbridge and South Ruislip Labour 18,806 Conservative 15,049 3,757 5.03%
77 Harlow Labour 19,086 Conservative 15,329 3,757 5.03%
78 Glasgow East Labour 15,701 SNP 12,230 3,471 5.03%
79 Dunfermline and Dollar Labour 19,002 SNP 15,303 3,699 5.08%
80 Stoke-on-Trent South Labour 17,098 Conservative 13,521 3,577 5.11%
81 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 16,723 Conservative 12,961 3,762 5.12%
82 Bexleyheath and Crayford Labour 17,191 Conservative 13,532 3,659 5.21%
83 Redditch Labour 18,769 Conservative 15,069 3,700 5.21%
84 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Labour 21,185 SNP 17,481 3,704 5.21%
85 Dartford Labour 18,381 Conservative 14,449 3,932 5.21%
86 Stafford Labour 20,870 Conservative 17,186 3,684 5.22%
87 Forest of Dean Labour 19,592 Conservative 15,736 3,856 5.29%
88 Cannock Chase Labour 18,301 Conservative 14,186 4,115 5.35%
89 Portsmouth North Labour 17,969 Conservative 14,155 3,814 5.41%
90 Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour 18,525 SNP 14,603 3,922 5.46%
91 Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 18,726 Conservative 14,522 4,204 5.48%
92 Worthing West Labour 20,294 Conservative 16,070 4,224 5.48%
93 North East Derbyshire Labour 20,456 Conservative 16,418 4,038 5.51%
94 Chingford and Woodford Green Labour 17,870 Conservative 13,761 4,109 5.55%
95 Burton and Uttoxeter Labour 18,650 Conservative 14,311 4,339 5.56%
96 Penrith and Solway Labour 23,204 Conservative 18,827 4,377 5.62%
97 Staffordshire Moorlands Labour 19,692 Conservative 15,762 3,930 5.62%
98 Llanelli Labour 14,450 Plaid Cymru 10,399 4,051 5.66%
99 Weston-super-Mare Labour 17,032 Conservative 12,902 4,130 5.78%
100 Mid Derbyshire Labour 20,926 Conservative 16,880 4,046 5.79%
101 North Somerset Labour 22,084 Conservative 17,717 4,367 5.87%
102 Bracknell Labour 18,338 Conservative 14,119 4,219 5.89%
103 North Warwickshire and Bedworth Labour 18,882 Conservative 14,712 4,170 5.98%
104 Earley and Woodley Labour 18,976 Conservative 14,523 4,453 6.05%
105 Barnsley North Labour 19,088 Reform 14,319 4,769 6.09%
106 Glenrothes and Mid Fife Labour 20,942 SNP 16,627 4,315 6.11%
107 Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 18,826 Conservative 14,243 4,583 6.12%
108 Amber Valley Labour 18,007 Conservative 13,549 4,458 6.23%
109 Airdrie and Shotts Labour 18,904 SNP 14,509 4,395 6.26%
110 Dudley Labour 17,159 Conservative 12,742 4,417 6.30%
111 Stourbridge Labour 21,029 Conservative 16,596 4,433 6.49%
112 Isle of Wight West Labour 14,479 Conservative 10,846 3,633 6.56%
113 North East Somerset and Hanham Labour 26,177 Conservative 21,272 4,905 6.64%
114 Na h-Eileanan an Iar Labour 6,346 SNP 4,906 1,440 6.75%
115 Lowestoft Labour 17,949 Conservative 12,851 5,098 6.86%

See also: Electoral Analysis

Maximise your vote to save the planet.

Join Now