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VoteClimate: Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

Most Marginal Seats In Labour's Majority At The Next Election

The most marginal 86 seats that will make up Labour's forecast majority at the next election, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election, are listed below ordered by the swing we predict will be required to change the result in the seat.

If VoteClimate can recruit enough members to swing these sets, we will have great influence over the Labour Party's climate policies.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 34.6% | Conservative: 24.4% | Reform: 14.7% | Liberal Democrat: 12.6% | Green: 6.9%

[Last updated: 11 August 2024]

Summary:

Number of Seats Winning Party Runner-up
71 Labour Conservative
8 Labour Other
4 Labour SNP
1 Labour Independent
1 Labour Reform
1 Labour Liberal Democrat

All seats:

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
1 Hendon Labour 15,855 Conservative 15,840 15 0.02%
2 Poole Labour 14,168 Conservative 14,150 18 0.02%
3 North West Cambridgeshire Labour 14,785 Conservative 14,746 39 0.05%
4 Peterborough Labour 13,418 Conservative 13,300 118 0.16%
5 Chelsea and Fulham Labour 18,556 Conservative 18,404 152 0.19%
6 Bethnal Green and Stepney Labour 15,896 Other 15,699 197 0.24%
7 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Labour 16,468 Conservative 16,254 214 0.30%
8 Forest of Dean Labour 16,373 Conservative 16,095 278 0.38%
9 Sittingbourne and Sheppey Labour 11,919 Conservative 11,564 355 0.45%
10 Derbyshire Dales Labour 17,759 Conservative 17,409 350 0.48%
11 Ilford North Labour 15,647 Other 15,119 528 0.67%
12 Uxbridge and South Ruislip Labour 16,599 Conservative 16,012 587 0.79%
13 Aylesbury Labour 15,081 Conservative 14,451 630 0.80%
14 South West Norfolk Labour 11,847 Conservative 11,217 630 0.84%
15 North Somerset Labour 19,138 Conservative 18,499 639 0.86%
16 Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour 14,976 Conservative 14,309 667 0.87%
17 Stoke-on-Trent South Labour 14,221 Conservative 13,594 627 0.90%
18 Bradford West Labour 11,724 Independent 11,017 707 0.91%
19 Birmingham Yardley Labour 11,275 Other 10,582 693 0.95%
20 Slough Labour 14,666 Other 13,870 796 0.98%
21 Ribble Valley Labour 18,177 Conservative 17,321 856 1.06%
22 Lichfield Labour 17,232 Conservative 16,422 810 1.06%
23 Bracknell Labour 14,783 Conservative 13,999 784 1.09%
24 Portsmouth North Labour 14,495 Conservative 13,715 780 1.11%
25 Redditch Labour 14,810 Conservative 14,021 789 1.11%
26 Pendle and Clitheroe Labour 16,129 Conservative 15,227 902 1.14%
27 Earley and Woodley Labour 18,209 Conservative 17,361 848 1.15%
28 North West Leicestershire Labour 16,871 Conservative 15,859 1,012 1.30%
29 South Dorset Labour 15,659 Conservative 14,611 1,048 1.38%
30 Suffolk Coastal Labour 15,672 Conservative 14,602 1,070 1.44%
31 Rother Valley Labour 16,023 Conservative 15,025 998 1.44%
32 Dartford Labour 15,392 Conservative 14,200 1,192 1.58%
33 Clwyd North Labour 14,794 Conservative 13,598 1,196 1.59%
34 Stirling and Strathallan Labour 16,856 SNP 15,462 1,394 1.83%
35 Tamworth Labour 15,338 Conservative 13,956 1,382 1.84%
36 Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Labour 16,745 Conservative 15,293 1,452 1.85%
37 Reading West and Mid Berkshire Labour 16,273 Conservative 14,912 1,361 1.98%
38 Rochdale Labour 13,027 Other 11,587 1,440 1.99%
39 Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Labour 10,655 Other 9,089 1,566 2.01%
40 Llanelli Labour 12,751 Reform 11,247 1,504 2.10%
41 Ashford Labour 15,262 Conservative 13,483 1,779 2.33%
42 Mid and South Pembrokeshire Labour 16,505 Conservative 14,627 1,878 2.38%
43 North East Derbyshire Labour 17,591 Conservative 15,838 1,753 2.39%
44 North East Hertfordshire Labour 18,358 Conservative 16,435 1,923 2.47%
45 Hyndburn Labour 12,186 Conservative 10,499 1,687 2.51%
46 Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Labour 13,232 Other 11,299 1,933 2.54%
47 Southend West and Leigh Labour 16,739 Conservative 14,790 1,949 2.59%
48 South East Cornwall Labour 15,670 Conservative 13,759 1,911 2.63%
49 Chatham and Aylesford Labour 13,689 Conservative 11,691 1,998 2.66%
50 Mid Derbyshire Labour 17,346 Conservative 15,468 1,878 2.69%
51 Dudley Labour 12,215 Conservative 10,315 1,900 2.71%
52 Lowestoft Labour 14,464 Conservative 12,448 2,016 2.71%
53 Burton and Uttoxeter Labour 16,222 Conservative 13,956 2,266 2.91%
54 Bexleyheath and Crayford Labour 15,717 Conservative 13,603 2,114 3.01%
55 North Warwickshire and Bedworth Labour 14,727 Conservative 12,529 2,198 3.15%
56 Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 17,602 Conservative 15,181 2,421 3.24%
57 St Austell and Newquay Labour 15,958 Conservative 13,488 2,470 3.25%
58 Darlington Labour 16,621 Conservative 14,323 2,298 3.25%
59 Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Labour 15,122 Conservative 12,811 2,311 3.29%
60 Harlow Labour 16,313 Conservative 13,809 2,504 3.35%
61 Cities of London and Westminster Labour 15,302 Conservative 12,594 2,708 3.69%
62 Gravesham Labour 16,623 Conservative 13,911 2,712 3.71%
63 Chipping Barnet Labour 21,585 Conservative 18,671 2,914 3.73%
64 Kensington and Bayswater Labour 17,025 Conservative 14,122 2,903 3.76%
65 South Norfolk Labour 17,353 Conservative 14,527 2,826 3.82%
66 Rochester and Strood Labour 15,403 Conservative 12,473 2,930 3.95%
67 Cannock Chase Labour 15,671 Conservative 12,546 3,125 4.06%
68 Birmingham Ladywood Labour 15,558 Other 12,137 3,421 4.09%
69 Glenrothes and Mid Fife Labour 15,994 SNP 13,040 2,954 4.18%
70 Gloucester Labour 16,472 Conservative 13,041 3,431 4.32%
71 Banbury Labour 18,468 Conservative 15,212 3,256 4.45%
72 Monmouthshire Labour 21,010 Conservative 17,672 3,338 4.46%
73 Stourbridge Labour 15,338 Conservative 12,265 3,073 4.50%
74 Livingston Labour 18,324 SNP 14,796 3,528 4.52%
75 Burnley Labour 12,598 Liberal Democrat 9,178 3,420 4.56%
76 Tipton and Wednesbury Labour 11,755 Conservative 8,370 3,385 4.57%
77 Bournemouth West Labour 14,365 Conservative 11,141 3,224 4.59%
78 Congleton Labour 18,875 Conservative 15,488 3,387 4.65%
79 Mansfield Labour 16,048 Conservative 12,563 3,485 4.68%
80 Redcar Labour 15,663 Conservative 12,340 3,323 4.73%
81 Brent West Labour 17,258 Conservative 13,465 3,793 4.74%
82 Glasgow South West Labour 15,552 SNP 12,267 3,285 4.77%
83 Scunthorpe Labour 15,484 Conservative 11,942 3,542 4.80%
84 Kettering Labour 18,009 Conservative 14,189 3,820 4.81%
85 Nuneaton Labour 15,216 Conservative 11,737 3,479 4.84%
86 Hexham Labour 23,988 Conservative 20,275 3,713 4.86%

See also: Electoral Analysis

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